THE POPE’S 2018 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  For the first year in some time there are no outright front runners in the Best Picture category and a number of other major categories.  Yes, there are a handful of “slam dunks” but fewer than usual.  I have read several complaints about the dearth of quality films this year.  I don’t disagree.  For this reason there is a stronger potential for surprises because everyone has a different idea of what film (or performance or craftsperson) is most deserving.  Below are my predictions for the 2018 Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.  I am submitting these a week earlier than usual and admit I may be relying more on my heart than my head.  Caveat emptor.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

BLACK PANTHER

BLACKkKLANSMAN

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

THE FAVOURITE

GREEN BOOK

ROMA

A STAR IS BORN

VICE

If there is anything close to a frontrunner in this race it’s ROMA.  However, ROMA is a slam dunk to win Best Foreign Language Film, so I question whether the Academy will reward it twice with a Best Picture award.  The next most likely winner would be either BLACKkKLANSMAN or GREEN BOOK.  Both have their problems.  Spike Lee is a divisive figure, and the latter film has been the recipient of backlash over its perceived “white savior” trope.  Because of the tiered voting for Best Picture almost any film could sneak in.  This could be our CRASH year.  Be afraid.  Be very afraid.

Should and Will Win:  BLACKkKLANSMAN (PCI 1)

Overlooked:    IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Best Director:

Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA

Yorgos Lanthimos, THE FAVOURITE

Spike Lee, BLACKkKLANSMAN

Adam McKay, VICE

Pawel Pawlikowski, COLD WAR

Alfonso Cuaron is the early favorite.  However, he won the director prize recently for GRAVITY.  Will the Academy reward him again so soon?  They did this with his Mexican compatriot Alejandro Iñarritu a mere three years ago.  Next in line would be Spike Lee who with BLACKkKLANSMAN has made his most entertaining yet politically charged film in years.  Will the Academy finally recognize the man who brought us DO THE RIGHT THING and MALCOLM X?  There isn’t tiered voting here, so it’s winner take all which favors Cuaron.

Should and Will Win:  Spike Lee, BLACKkKLANSMAN (PCI 1)

Overlooked:    Barry Jenkins, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Best Actress:

Yalitza Aparcio, ROMA

Glenn Close, THE WIFE

Olivia Colman, THE FAVOURITE

Lady Gaga, A STAR IS BORN

Melissa McCarthy, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Glenn Close has won most of the major awards to date for what many agree is a lesser performance in a substandard movie.  This has never stopped the Academy in the past, slave to the zeitgeist that it is.  Also this may be considered a career achievement award for Close’s unrewarded performances from the ‘80s and ‘90s.  That said, both Olivia Colman and Lada Gaga have enough traction in performances that most agree are outstanding in movies that are much better liked.  They would be the likely spoilers.

Should Win (tie):         Melissa McCarthy, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
                                    Olivia Colman, THE FAVOURITE

Will Win:          Glenn Close, THE WIFE (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Elsie Fisher, EIGHTH GRADE

Best Actor:

Christian Bale, VICE

Bradley Cooper, A STAR IS BORN

Willem Dafoe, AT ETERNITY’S GATE

Rami Malek, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

Viggo Mortensen, GREEN BOOK

This will come down to a battle between the two Golden Globe winners, Bale (drama) and Malek (musical or comedy).  The Screen Actors Guild gave the prize to Malek, so he may be favored.  Still there has been some backlash to BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY due to allegations against its fired director, which could push Bale past the finish line.  VICE has more love in other Oscar® categories, which may also give an edge to Bale.

Should and Will Win:  Rami Malek, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    Ethan Hawke, FIRST REFORMED

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, VICE

Marina de Tavira, ROMA

Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Emma Stone, THE FAVOURITE

Rachel Weisz, THE FAVOURITE

The fact that Regina King has received little to no love elsewhere for her performance may dissuade you from choosing her.  I would suggest the opposite.  Because King has been oddly, even embarrassingly, overlooked the Academy will right that wrong here.  Nevertheless Amy Adams could eke out a victory, while Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz cancel each other out.

Should and Will Win:  Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie, LEAVE NO TRACE

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, GREEN BOOK

Adam Driver, BLACKkKLANSMAN

Sam Elliott, A STAR IS BORN

Richard E. Grant, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Sam Rockwell, VICE

Mahershala Ali is the early favorite, but recall that he won the same award a mere two years ago.  Richard E. Grant gives a career capping performance in a marvelous film and may get enough journeyman votes to squeak out a win.  The third possibility is a vote for stalwart Sam Elliott who, should he win, would be the Beatrice Straight (of NETWORK fame) for this generation.

Should and Will Win:  Richard E. Grant, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? (PCI 1)

Overlooked:    Brian Tyree Henry, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS

Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Barry Jenkins, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A STAR IS BORN

Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BLACKkKLANSMAN

BLACKkKLANSMAN is the early favorite, and I see no reason this should change.  If you’re looking for potential spoilers, I would suggest IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK or, more likely and more deserving, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Should Win:    Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE
                       ME?

Will Win:          Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike
                         Lee, BLACKkKLANSMAN (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, THE DEATH
                       OF STALIN

Best Original Screenplay:

Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, THE FAVOURITE

Adam McKay, VICE

Paul Schrader, FIRST REFORMED

Nick Vallelonga & Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly, GREEN BOOK

I suspect THE FAVOURITE will be the favorite come Oscar® time.  That said, there appears to be a groundswell of support for GREEN BOOK, and don’t completely count out ROMA.  If you’re looking for the ultimate dark horse, look no further than Paul Schrader, a veteran screenwriter who made a splash with TAXI DRIVER back in 1976.  He’s a churlish personality but long overdue.  We’ll see if the Academy is feeling forgiving.

Should Win:    Paul Schrader, FIRST REFORMED

Will Win:          Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, THE FAVOURITE
                        (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    Bo Burnham, EIGHTH GRADE

Best Animated Film

INCREDIBLES 2

ISLE OF DOGS

MIRAI

RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET

SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

Everyone I know who’s seen it (I abashedly admit I haven’t) thinks SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE is the animated film to beat.  I’m okay with that.  INCREDIBLES 2, the most likely spoiler, felt like an exceptional retread, and ISLE OF DOGS may be too quirky.  I must admit a fondness for RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET.

Should Win:    RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET

Will Win:          SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE (PCI 4)

Best Foreign Language Film

CAPERNAUM (Lebanon)

COLD WAR (Poland)

NEVER LOOK AWAY (Germany)

ROMA (Mexico)

SHOPLIFTERS (Japan)

I tried and failed to see COLD WAR before my publication deadline, so ROMA is it.  However, if COLD WAR wins here, then ROMA is going to win Best Picture.

Should and Will Win:  ROMA (Mexico) (PCI 5)

Best Documentary Feature

FREE SOLO

HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING

MINDING THE GAP

OF FATHERS AND SONS

RBG

FREE SOLO and RBG are neck and neck in this category, according to the odds makers.  RBG has name recognition, but FREE SOLO has momentum.

Will Win:          FREE SOLO (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS

Best Cinematography

Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA

Caleb Deschanel, NEVER LOOK AWAY

Matthew Libatique, A STAR IS BORN

Robbie Ryan, THE FAVOURITE

Lukasz Zal, COLD WAR

ROMA and COLD WAR have the advantage of being shot in black-and-white, a look that the Academy loves.  THE FAVOURITE benefits from being a gorgeously designed period piece, also Oscar® beloved.

Should Win:    Robbie Ryan, THE FAVOURITE

Will Win:          Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA (PCI 4)

Best Film Editing

Barry Alexander Brown, BLACKkKLANSMAN

Hank Corwin, VICE

Yorgos Mavropsaridis, THE FAVOURITE

John Ottman, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

Patrick J. Don Vito, GREEN BOOK

VICE is a slight favorite.  However, BLACKkKLANSMAN, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY or THE FAVOURITE are nipping at its heels and have the potential to slip into the winner’s circle.

Should and Will Win:  Barry Alexander Brown, BLACKkKLANSMAN (PC 2)

Best Costume Design

Alexandra Byrne, MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

Ruth Carter, BLACK PANTHER

Sandy Powell, THE FAVOURITE

Sandy Powell, MARY POPPINS RETURNS

Mary Zophres, THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS

THE FAVOURITE and BLACK PANTHER will duke this one out.  THE FAVOURITE has the advantage of period, but Sandy Powell is competing against herself with MARY POPPINS.  This could be the category the Academy gives to BLACK PANTHER.

Should and Will Win:  Sandy Powell, THE FAVOURITE (PCI 4)

Best Production Design

BLACK PANTHER

THE FAVOURITE

FIRST MAN

MARY POPPINS RETURNS

ROMA

Once again BLACK PANTHER and THE FAVOURITE will go mano-a-mano.  THE FAVOURITE has the edge, but I suspect this will be the one award given to BLACK PANTHER on Oscar® night.

Should and Will Win:  BLACK PANTHER (PCI 3)

Best Original Score

Terence Blanchard, BLACKkKLANSMAN

Nicholas Britell, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Alexandre Desplat, ISLE OF DOGS

Ludwig Göransson, BLACK PANTHER

Marc Shaiman, MARY POPPINS RETURNS

The most likely victor in this category would be IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK for its lush score.  The most likely spoilers would be BLACK PANTHER and MARY POPPINS RETURNS, but I feel reasonably confident with this one.

Should and Will Win:  Nicholas Britell, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
                                   (PCI 4)

Best Original Song

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” THE BALLAD OF BUSTER
                                                                             SCRUGGS

“All The Stars,” BLACK PANTHER

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” MARY POPPINS RETURNS

“I’ll Fight,” RBG

“Shallow,” A STAR IS BORN

This one is as close to a slam dunk as any this year.  If there is a spoiler, which I doubt, it would be “All The Stars.”

Should and Will Win:  “Shallow,” A STAR IS BORN (PCI 5)

Best Sound Mixing

BLACK PANTHER

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

FIRST MAN

ROMA

A STAR IS BORN

Any movie with a heavy singing or musical performance component tends to win this one, which leaves us with BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY and A STAR IS BORN.  I’m leaning toward A STAR IS BORN.

Should Win:    ROMA

Will Win:          A STAR IS BORN (PCI 4)

Best Sound Editing

BLACK PANTHER

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

FIRST MAN

A QUIET PLACE

ROMA

All of A QUIET PLACE revolves around the presence and absence of sound, but the Academy will want to give something to FIRST MAN.

Should Win:    A QUIET PLACE

Will Win:          FIRST MAN (PCI 4)

Best Visual Effects

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

CHRISTOPHER ROBIN

FIRST MAN

READY PLAYER ONE

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY

I sat through all 2½ hours of INFINITY WAR, so for that reason and that reason alone, I’ll go with it.

Should and Will Win:  AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (PCI 3)

Best Makeup

BORDER

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

VICE

The Academy loves to see actors transformed, so VICE seems like a pretty sure bet here.  That is, unless it wins Film Editing, then MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS may squeak out a win.

Should and Will Win:  VICE (PCI 4)

Best Documentary Short Subject

BLACK SHEEP

END GAME

LIFEBOAT

A NIGHT AT THE GARDEN

PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE.

Will Win:          BLACK SHEEP (PCI 3)

Best Animated Short Subject

ANIMAL BEHAVIOR

BAO

LATE AFTERNOON

ONE SMALL STEP

WEEKENDS

Will Win:          BAO (PCI 4)

Best Live Action Short Subject

DETAINMENT

FAUVE

MARGUERITE

MOTHER

SKIN

Will Win:          MARGUERITE (PCI 2)

THE BEST AND WORST OF 2017: GLIMPSES OUTSIDE THE COMFORT ZONE

Another year has come and gone, and as of this writing I’ve only seen 43 of the year’s movies.  At times in the past some fellow movie aficionados have admonished me for not “seeing enough crap.”  I suppose that’s fair.  And yet I can’t help feeling a certain virtue.  I try to see movies that interest me or movies that cross the event horizon of public consciousness or movies that simply trigger that Pavlovian urge to sit in a dark theater for a couple hours.  Which means I mostly see things I like or for which I have a natural proclivity.  And somehow I still see just enough “crap” to recognize it as such.  I fear if I saw too much “crap” I might start giving it the benefit of the doubt.  Also I read.  A lot.  [Side Note:  If you like “hard” science fiction, stop what you are doing and read Cixin Liu’s mammoth Three-Body trilogy.  It will blow your mind.]  All this is to say that I have better things to do than waste my time on lousy movies if I can at all help it.

My favorite movies this year featured outsiders in main or major roles.  Almost every character in THE FLORIDA PROJECT lives on the fringe of society.  In GET OUT a black boyfriend spends a nightmarish weekend with his girlfriend’s wealthy white family.  And THE SHAPE OF WATER’s protagonists include a mute janitor, her black co-worker, a gay neighbor, a compassionate Soviet agent, and a humanoid sea creature.  In movies from the early ‘60s (the era when the movie is set) few of these characters would even attain supporting stature.  The latter two would likely be the villain and the monster, respectively.  Instead the movie’s monster is a U.S. government agent (normally our ‘60s ostensible hero).

The best films of 2017 remind us that we can discover courage, understanding and resilience in unexpected places.  Perhaps we would do well to move beyond our normal comfort zones, both on screen and off.  We might be surprised and heartened but what we experience there.  Speaking only for myself, pleasant surprises and happy accidents are two of my favorite things in art and in life.  Here’s to more in 2018.

Thanks to everyone who has been willing to engage with me and the movies throughout the year.  It’s always a pleasure to speak passionately and intelligently with such thoughtful and honorable people.  For this, I can only offer my most profound gratitude and humility.

Finally, thanks to my supportive family and friends.  I’m lucky to have you.

  

Brian Pope

March 3, 2018

***********************************************************************************************

THE BEST OF 2017

THE TOP THREE
(in alphabetical order)

THE FLORIDA PROJECT  Set in “The Magic Kingdom,” a transient hotel on the outskirts of Disneyworld, Sean Baker’s raucous film explores America’s indigent underbelly through the eyes of 7-year-old Moonee (a riveting Brooklyn Pierce) and her struggling ex-stripper mother (an excellent Bria Vinaite).  Kindhearted hotel manager Bobby (a tender Willem Dafoe) acts as beleaguered parent to the kids and emotionally stunted adults in his reluctant care.  Funny, frustrating and, ultimately, heartbreaking.

GET OUT  Writer/director Jordan Peele taps into the cultural zeitgeist with this pitch black social horror comedy, upending conventional wisdom about race relations in America.  Black boyfriend Chris (Daniel Kaluuya) and white girlfriend Rose (Allison Williams) visit her progressive parents (Bradley Whitford and Catherine Keener) at their remote family estate, but he finds the demeanor (and presence) of black servants unnerving.  The truth, once revealed, is even more outrageous than imagined, but Peele’s arch tone never wavers.

THE SHAPE OF WATER  At a top secret government lab, mute janitor Elisa (Sally Hawkins) becomes infatuated with a mystical sea creature (Doug Jones) captured by a ruthless federal agent (Michael Shannon).  She plots to free him with the help of artist Giles (Richard Jenkins) and fellow janitor Zelda (Octavia Spencer).  Director Guillermo del Toro’s gorgeous fantasy mashes together the disparate genres of espionage thriller, fairy tale romance, and social drama to create a meticulously crafted and heartfelt love letter to the movies.

THE BEST OF THE REST OF THE TOP TEN
(in alphabetical order)

BLADE RUNNER 2049  Heretical as this may sound, director Denis Villeneuve improves upon Ridley Scott’s visionary but flawed 1982 cult film with this overlong but visually and thematically rich meditation on identity.

BRAD’S STATUS  Mike White turns a father and son tour of colleges into an awkward comedy drama about the problems of privilege.  Austin Abrams is terrific as the son, and Ben Stiller gives his best performance in years.

THE DISASTER ARTIST  An affectionate recounting of the relationship between enigmatic Tommy Wiseau (James Franco) and actor Greg Sistero (Dave Franco) and the creation of one of the worst movies ever made.

LADY BIRD  This prickly coming-of-age comedy and unsentimental mother/daughter drama highlights Greta Gerwig’s unique and quirky cinema voice.  Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf are absolute knockouts.

LOGAN  After slumming in uninspired X-MEN and WOLVERINE sequels Hugh Jackman finally shows his acting chops in this violent, resonant elegy that does for superheroes what THE WILD BUNCH did for cowboys.

MUDBOUND  Set in rural Georgia just after World War II Dee Rees’ richly observed film follows two returning soldiers (one white, one black) who must navigate the bonds of brotherhood against ingrained Southern racism.

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI  Too uneven in tone to take completely seriously, yet Martin McDonagh’s film about vengeance, guilt and futility is difficult to shake, as are the indelible performances of Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell.

Runners-Up of 2017
(in alphabetical order)

THE BIG SICK

I, TONYA

PATTI CAKE$

THE POST

RAW

Honorable Mentions: BABY DRIVER; BEATRIZ AT DINNER; CALL ME BY YOUR NAME; JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 2; PERSONAL SHOPPER; PHANTOM THREAD; STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

THE WORST of 2017
(in alphabetical order)

DARKEST HOUR  By turns tedious and ridiculous, Joe Wright’s film torpedoes Gary Oldman’s prodigious thespian effort which sinks to the bottom of the English Channel.

ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.  Even Denzel Washington’s integrity and intelligence can’t save a film that doesn’t know what it’s saying or how to say it.

WILSON  Daniel Clowes adaptation of his graphic novel about a misanthrope fails completely in its translation to the screen, wasting the talents of Woody Harrelson and Judy Greer.

THE POPE’S 2017 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  This year the Academy has broadened its membership to include more diversity.  Will this affect the final vote?  It certainly seems to have affected the nominations.  We’ll see.  Below are my predictions for the 2017 Oscars®.

To assist with your own predictions I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not very confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Mostly confident, 5=Very confident.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

DARKEST HOUR

DUNKIRK

GET OUT

LADY BIRD

PHANTOM THREAD

THE POST

THE SHAPE OF WATER

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

As in most years past Best Picture will come down to two films:  THE SHAPE OF WATER and THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI.  With the increase in nominated films (up to 10) and the change in voting methodology (ranking films from 1 thru 9, in this instance) a film need not have the most #1 votes to prevail.  Now a #2 or a #3 ranking could spell the difference between a LA LA LAND and a MOONLIGHT.  If you put credence in award history your best bet is THREE BILLBOARDS, which won the Golden Globe for Drama, the SAG Ensemble award, and the BAFTA Best Picture.  Item of note:  THREE BILLBOARDS did not snag a Best Director nomination.  It’s rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nod.  Last exception:  ARGO in 2013.  THE SHAPE OF WATER, on the other hand, has won almost every Best Director award this season.  If I could vote I would pick GET OUT, a film that will be discussed decades from now.  If I dare think like the Academy I would predict THE SHAPE OF WATER.  If I had my druthers THE FLORIDA PROJECT would be nominated rather than DARKEST HOUR.

Should Win:     GET OUT

Will Win:          THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson, PHANTOM THREAD

Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD

Christopher Nolan, DUNKIRK

Jordan Peele, GET OUT

Guillermo del Toro has won almost every directing award this season.  It seems unlikely the Academy will break the trend.

Should and Will Win:   Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Sean Baker, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Actress:

Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Margot Robbie, I, TONYA

Saoirse Ronan, LADY BIRD

Meryl Streep, THE POST

In an average year any one of these remarkable performances could reasonably win.  But this is not an average year.  Absent a five-way tie, I predict Frances McDormand will earn her second Oscar® for THREE BILLBOARDS.  However, I would be thrilled if Sally Hawkins won.

Should Win:     Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Will Win:          Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING,

                                                             MISSOURI (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Vicky Krieps, PHANTOM THREAD

Best Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Daniel Day-Lewis, PHANTOM THREAD

Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT

Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR

Denzel Washington, ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.

Gary Oldman is the closest thing to a slam dunk this year, despite the film abandoning him (metaphorically) at Dunkirk with its frustrating mix of tedium and silliness.  Denzel Washington gets the consolation slot abandoned by James Franco after abuse accusations derailed his chances.  Robert Pattinson’s fearless turn in GOOD TIME deserves the slot more.  My vote would go to Daniel Kaluuya.

Should Win:     Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT

Will Win:          Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Robert Pattinson, GOOD TIME

Best Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, MUDBOUND

Allison Janney, I, TONYA

Lesley Manville, PHANTOM THREAD

Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD

Octavia Spencer, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf have been doing exceptional, underrated work for years now.  It’s a shame both can’t win.  Metcalf gives the more complex, nuanced performance, but Janney gets the showier part and runs with it.  I’d give the award to Metcalf, but Janney will win.  Do yourself a favor and rent THE FLORIDA PROJECT, a heartbreaking movie with a terrific performance by 7-year-old Brooklyn Prince.

Should Win:     Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD

Will Win:          Allison Janney, I, TONYA (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Brooklyn Prince, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Woody Harrelson, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Richard Jenkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Christopher Plummer, ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD

Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

A category chock full of great character actors.  Willem Dafoe earned his first nomination for PLATOON in 1987, and he deserves the award here for his subtle, compassionate work.  Still my money is on Sam Rockwell, an always exceptional actor in a showpiece role, for the win.  Armie Hammer should have been included in this list for his enigmatic performance in CALL ME BY YOUR NAME.

Should Win:     Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Will Win:          Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING,

                                                  MISSOURI (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Armie Hammer, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, LOGAN

James Ivory, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, THE DISASTER ARTIST

Aaron Sorkin, MOLLY’S GAME

Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, MUDBOUND

For a more in-depth discussion of the adapted screenplay nominees, please check out Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar 2018 podcast (www.onthepage.tv).  James Ivory will win because 1) he’s had a long and respected career as a producer, director and writer without winning an Oscar®; and 2) CALL ME BY YOUR NAME is the only adapted screenplay nominee also nominated for Best Picture.

Should Win:     Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, THE DISASTER ARTIST

Will Win:          James Ivory, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    James Gray, THE LOST CITY OF Z

Best Original Screenplay:

Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD

Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, THE BIG SICK

Martin McDonagh, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Jordan Peele, GET OUT

For a more in-depth discussion of the original screenplay nominees, please check out Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar 2018 podcast (www.onthepage.tv).  Because Martin McDonagh was snubbed in the Best Director category conventional wisdom would suggest the Academy would reward him with a screenplay Oscar®.  Quite possible.  However, THREE BILLBOARDS will likely be getting plenty of acting love and quite possibly a Best Picture win.  Jordan Peele has written the movie of the moment, so I predict he earns the gold.

Should and Will Win:   Jordan Peele, GET OUT (PCI 3)

Overlooked:                Mike White, BRAD’S STATUS or BEATRIZ AT DINNER

Best Animated Film:

THE BOSS BABY

THE BREADWINNER

COCO

FERDINAND

LOVING VINCENT

Of the nominees I only saw FERDINAND, which didn’t impress as Best Animated Film.

Should Win:     Couldn’t say.

Will Win:          COCO (PCI 5)

Best Foreign Language Film:

A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile)

THE INSULT (Lebanon)

LOVELESS (Russia)

ON BODY AND SOUL (Hungary)

THE SQUARE (Sweden)

I’ve yet to see any of the nominees.  I hear A FANTASTIC WOMAN is the front-runner. 

Should Win:    Couldn't say.

Will Win:          A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile) (PCI 3)

Best Documentary Feature:

ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL

FACES PLACES

ICARUS

LAST MEN IN ALEPPO

STRONG ISLAND

I’ve yet to see any of the nominees.  I hear great things about FACES PLACES and would love to hear Agnes Varda speak.

Should Win:     Couldn’t say.

Will Win:          FACES PLACES (PCI 4)

Best Cinematography:

Roger Deakins, BLADE RUNNER 2049

Bruno Delbonnel, DARKEST HOUR

Dan Laustsen, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Rachel Morrison, MUDBOUND

Hoyte van Hoytema, DUNKIRK

Roger Deakins may finally get the Oscar® he so richly deserves.  However, Dan Laustsen may play spoiler if SHAPE OF WATER gains momentum.  Or Hoyte van Hoytema if DUNKIRK gets amply rewarded for its technical achievements.

Should and Will Win:   Roger Deakins, BLADE RUNNER 2049 (PCI 3)

Best Film Editing:

Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss, BABY DRIVER

Jon Gregory, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Tatiana S. Riegel, I, TONYA

Lee Smith, DUNKIRK

Sidney Wolinsky, THE SHAPE OF WATER

I’m in the minority and found DUNKIRK’s trifurcated timeline more distancing than immersive.  SHAPE OF WATER, on the other hand, reeled me in.  I’d give the gold to Sidney Wolinsky, but the Academy will probably honor Lee Smith.

Should Win:     Sidney Wolinsky, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Will Win:          Lee Smith, DUNKIRK (PCI 4)

Best Costume Design:

Consolata Boyle, VICTORIA AND ABDUL

Mark Bridges, PHANTOM THREAD

Jacqueline Durran, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

Jacqueline Durran, DARKEST HOUR

Luis Sequeira, THE SHAPE OF WATER

It seems intuitive to give the costume award to a movie about a dress designer.  Who am I to argue?  That said, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST and SHAPE OF WATER are the most likely spoilers.

Should and Will Win:   Mark Bridges, PHANTOM THREAD (PCI 3)

Best Production Design:

BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

BLADE RUNNER 2049

DARKEST HOUR

DUNKIRK

THE SHAPE OF WATER

I found the dark future envisioned by BLADE RUNNER 2049 most compelling.  However, the Academy will probably reward the dark fairy tale of SHAPE OF WATER.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049

Will Win:          THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 4)

Best Original Score:

Carter Burwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Alexandre Desplat, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Jonny Greenwood, PHANTOM THREAD

John Williams, STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

Hans Zimmer, DUNKIRK

Jonny Greenwood’s score was easily my favorite this year.  The likely winner, however, is Alexandre Desplat.

Should Win:     Jonny Greenwood, PHANTOM THREAD

Will Win:          Alexander Desplat, THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 4)

Best Original Song:

“Mighty River,” MUDBOUND

“Mystery of Love,” CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

“Remember Me,” COCO

“Stand Up for Something,” MARSHALL

“This Is Me,” THE GREATEST SHOWMAN

The only song I remember (and remember liking) is Sufjan Stevens’ “Mystery of Love.”  The rest is noise.

Should Win:     “Mystery of Love,” CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Will Win:          “Remember Me,” COCO (PCI 3)

Best Sound Mixing:

BABY DRIVER

BLADE RUNNER 2049

DUNKIRK

THE SHAPE OF WATER

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

DUNKIRK will probably win, but it loses points for Hans Zimmer’s grating score accompanying the soundscape.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049

Will Win:          DUNKIRK (PCI 3)

Best Sound Editing:

BABY DRIVER

BLADE RUNNER 2049

DUNKIRK

THE SHAPE OF WATER

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

War movies seem to garner sound editing awards (I think), so I’m going with DUNKIRK.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049

Will Win:          DUNKIRK (PCI 3)

Best Visual Effects:

BLADE RUNNER 2049

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 2

KONG: SKULL ISLAND

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES

The myriad ape effects in WAR FOR are certainly a virtuoso achievement, but I found its whole less than the sum of its parts.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049

Will Win:          WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES (PCI 2)

Best Makeup:

DARKEST HOUR

VICTORIA AND ABDUL

WONDER

Gary Oldman should give his Oscar® to the makeup designer as well.

Should and Will Win:   DARKEST HOUR (PCI 5)

Best Documentary Short Subject:

EDITH+EDDIE

HEAVEN IS A TRAFFIC JAM ON THE 405

HEROIN(E)

KNIFE SKILLS

TRAFFIC STOP

No clue, so I’ll guess.

Will Win:          EDITH+EDDIE (PCI 1)

Best Animated Short Subject:

DEAR BASKETBALL

GARDEN PARTY

LOU

NEGATIVE SPACE

REVOLTING RHYMES

Kobe Bryant produced DEAR BASKETBALL, and that’s why I’m picking it.

Will Win:          DEAR BASKETBALL (PCI 3)

Best Live Action Short Subject:

DeKALB ELEMENTARY

THE ELEVEN O’CLOCK

MY NEPHEW EMMETT

THE SILENT CHILD

WATU WOTE/ALL OF US

I’m guessing again.

Will Win:          DeKALB ELEMENTARY (PCI 2)