THE POPE’S 2018 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  For the first year in some time there are no outright front runners in the Best Picture category and a number of other major categories.  Yes, there are a handful of “slam dunks” but fewer than usual.  I have read several complaints about the dearth of quality films this year.  I don’t disagree.  For this reason there is a stronger potential for surprises because everyone has a different idea of what film (or performance or craftsperson) is most deserving.  Below are my predictions for the 2018 Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.  I am submitting these a week earlier than usual and admit I may be relying more on my heart than my head.  Caveat emptor.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

BLACK PANTHER

BLACKkKLANSMAN

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

THE FAVOURITE

GREEN BOOK

ROMA

A STAR IS BORN

VICE

If there is anything close to a frontrunner in this race it’s ROMA.  However, ROMA is a slam dunk to win Best Foreign Language Film, so I question whether the Academy will reward it twice with a Best Picture award.  The next most likely winner would be either BLACKkKLANSMAN or GREEN BOOK.  Both have their problems.  Spike Lee is a divisive figure, and the latter film has been the recipient of backlash over its perceived “white savior” trope.  Because of the tiered voting for Best Picture almost any film could sneak in.  This could be our CRASH year.  Be afraid.  Be very afraid.

Should and Will Win:  BLACKkKLANSMAN (PCI 1)

Overlooked:    IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Best Director:

Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA

Yorgos Lanthimos, THE FAVOURITE

Spike Lee, BLACKkKLANSMAN

Adam McKay, VICE

Pawel Pawlikowski, COLD WAR

Alfonso Cuaron is the early favorite.  However, he won the director prize recently for GRAVITY.  Will the Academy reward him again so soon?  They did this with his Mexican compatriot Alejandro Iñarritu a mere three years ago.  Next in line would be Spike Lee who with BLACKkKLANSMAN has made his most entertaining yet politically charged film in years.  Will the Academy finally recognize the man who brought us DO THE RIGHT THING and MALCOLM X?  There isn’t tiered voting here, so it’s winner take all which favors Cuaron.

Should and Will Win:  Spike Lee, BLACKkKLANSMAN (PCI 1)

Overlooked:    Barry Jenkins, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Best Actress:

Yalitza Aparcio, ROMA

Glenn Close, THE WIFE

Olivia Colman, THE FAVOURITE

Lady Gaga, A STAR IS BORN

Melissa McCarthy, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Glenn Close has won most of the major awards to date for what many agree is a lesser performance in a substandard movie.  This has never stopped the Academy in the past, slave to the zeitgeist that it is.  Also this may be considered a career achievement award for Close’s unrewarded performances from the ‘80s and ‘90s.  That said, both Olivia Colman and Lada Gaga have enough traction in performances that most agree are outstanding in movies that are much better liked.  They would be the likely spoilers.

Should Win (tie):         Melissa McCarthy, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
                                    Olivia Colman, THE FAVOURITE

Will Win:          Glenn Close, THE WIFE (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Elsie Fisher, EIGHTH GRADE

Best Actor:

Christian Bale, VICE

Bradley Cooper, A STAR IS BORN

Willem Dafoe, AT ETERNITY’S GATE

Rami Malek, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

Viggo Mortensen, GREEN BOOK

This will come down to a battle between the two Golden Globe winners, Bale (drama) and Malek (musical or comedy).  The Screen Actors Guild gave the prize to Malek, so he may be favored.  Still there has been some backlash to BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY due to allegations against its fired director, which could push Bale past the finish line.  VICE has more love in other Oscar® categories, which may also give an edge to Bale.

Should and Will Win:  Rami Malek, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    Ethan Hawke, FIRST REFORMED

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, VICE

Marina de Tavira, ROMA

Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Emma Stone, THE FAVOURITE

Rachel Weisz, THE FAVOURITE

The fact that Regina King has received little to no love elsewhere for her performance may dissuade you from choosing her.  I would suggest the opposite.  Because King has been oddly, even embarrassingly, overlooked the Academy will right that wrong here.  Nevertheless Amy Adams could eke out a victory, while Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz cancel each other out.

Should and Will Win:  Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie, LEAVE NO TRACE

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, GREEN BOOK

Adam Driver, BLACKkKLANSMAN

Sam Elliott, A STAR IS BORN

Richard E. Grant, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Sam Rockwell, VICE

Mahershala Ali is the early favorite, but recall that he won the same award a mere two years ago.  Richard E. Grant gives a career capping performance in a marvelous film and may get enough journeyman votes to squeak out a win.  The third possibility is a vote for stalwart Sam Elliott who, should he win, would be the Beatrice Straight (of NETWORK fame) for this generation.

Should and Will Win:  Richard E. Grant, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? (PCI 1)

Overlooked:    Brian Tyree Henry, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS

Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Barry Jenkins, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A STAR IS BORN

Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BLACKkKLANSMAN

BLACKkKLANSMAN is the early favorite, and I see no reason this should change.  If you’re looking for potential spoilers, I would suggest IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK or, more likely and more deserving, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

Should Win:    Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE
                       ME?

Will Win:          Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike
                         Lee, BLACKkKLANSMAN (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, THE DEATH
                       OF STALIN

Best Original Screenplay:

Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, THE FAVOURITE

Adam McKay, VICE

Paul Schrader, FIRST REFORMED

Nick Vallelonga & Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly, GREEN BOOK

I suspect THE FAVOURITE will be the favorite come Oscar® time.  That said, there appears to be a groundswell of support for GREEN BOOK, and don’t completely count out ROMA.  If you’re looking for the ultimate dark horse, look no further than Paul Schrader, a veteran screenwriter who made a splash with TAXI DRIVER back in 1976.  He’s a churlish personality but long overdue.  We’ll see if the Academy is feeling forgiving.

Should Win:    Paul Schrader, FIRST REFORMED

Will Win:          Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, THE FAVOURITE
                        (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    Bo Burnham, EIGHTH GRADE

Best Animated Film

INCREDIBLES 2

ISLE OF DOGS

MIRAI

RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET

SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

Everyone I know who’s seen it (I abashedly admit I haven’t) thinks SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE is the animated film to beat.  I’m okay with that.  INCREDIBLES 2, the most likely spoiler, felt like an exceptional retread, and ISLE OF DOGS may be too quirky.  I must admit a fondness for RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET.

Should Win:    RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET

Will Win:          SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE (PCI 4)

Best Foreign Language Film

CAPERNAUM (Lebanon)

COLD WAR (Poland)

NEVER LOOK AWAY (Germany)

ROMA (Mexico)

SHOPLIFTERS (Japan)

I tried and failed to see COLD WAR before my publication deadline, so ROMA is it.  However, if COLD WAR wins here, then ROMA is going to win Best Picture.

Should and Will Win:  ROMA (Mexico) (PCI 5)

Best Documentary Feature

FREE SOLO

HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING

MINDING THE GAP

OF FATHERS AND SONS

RBG

FREE SOLO and RBG are neck and neck in this category, according to the odds makers.  RBG has name recognition, but FREE SOLO has momentum.

Will Win:          FREE SOLO (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS

Best Cinematography

Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA

Caleb Deschanel, NEVER LOOK AWAY

Matthew Libatique, A STAR IS BORN

Robbie Ryan, THE FAVOURITE

Lukasz Zal, COLD WAR

ROMA and COLD WAR have the advantage of being shot in black-and-white, a look that the Academy loves.  THE FAVOURITE benefits from being a gorgeously designed period piece, also Oscar® beloved.

Should Win:    Robbie Ryan, THE FAVOURITE

Will Win:          Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA (PCI 4)

Best Film Editing

Barry Alexander Brown, BLACKkKLANSMAN

Hank Corwin, VICE

Yorgos Mavropsaridis, THE FAVOURITE

John Ottman, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

Patrick J. Don Vito, GREEN BOOK

VICE is a slight favorite.  However, BLACKkKLANSMAN, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY or THE FAVOURITE are nipping at its heels and have the potential to slip into the winner’s circle.

Should and Will Win:  Barry Alexander Brown, BLACKkKLANSMAN (PC 2)

Best Costume Design

Alexandra Byrne, MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

Ruth Carter, BLACK PANTHER

Sandy Powell, THE FAVOURITE

Sandy Powell, MARY POPPINS RETURNS

Mary Zophres, THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS

THE FAVOURITE and BLACK PANTHER will duke this one out.  THE FAVOURITE has the advantage of period, but Sandy Powell is competing against herself with MARY POPPINS.  This could be the category the Academy gives to BLACK PANTHER.

Should and Will Win:  Sandy Powell, THE FAVOURITE (PCI 4)

Best Production Design

BLACK PANTHER

THE FAVOURITE

FIRST MAN

MARY POPPINS RETURNS

ROMA

Once again BLACK PANTHER and THE FAVOURITE will go mano-a-mano.  THE FAVOURITE has the edge, but I suspect this will be the one award given to BLACK PANTHER on Oscar® night.

Should and Will Win:  BLACK PANTHER (PCI 3)

Best Original Score

Terence Blanchard, BLACKkKLANSMAN

Nicholas Britell, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Alexandre Desplat, ISLE OF DOGS

Ludwig Göransson, BLACK PANTHER

Marc Shaiman, MARY POPPINS RETURNS

The most likely victor in this category would be IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK for its lush score.  The most likely spoilers would be BLACK PANTHER and MARY POPPINS RETURNS, but I feel reasonably confident with this one.

Should and Will Win:  Nicholas Britell, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
                                   (PCI 4)

Best Original Song

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” THE BALLAD OF BUSTER
                                                                             SCRUGGS

“All The Stars,” BLACK PANTHER

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” MARY POPPINS RETURNS

“I’ll Fight,” RBG

“Shallow,” A STAR IS BORN

This one is as close to a slam dunk as any this year.  If there is a spoiler, which I doubt, it would be “All The Stars.”

Should and Will Win:  “Shallow,” A STAR IS BORN (PCI 5)

Best Sound Mixing

BLACK PANTHER

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

FIRST MAN

ROMA

A STAR IS BORN

Any movie with a heavy singing or musical performance component tends to win this one, which leaves us with BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY and A STAR IS BORN.  I’m leaning toward A STAR IS BORN.

Should Win:    ROMA

Will Win:          A STAR IS BORN (PCI 4)

Best Sound Editing

BLACK PANTHER

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

FIRST MAN

A QUIET PLACE

ROMA

All of A QUIET PLACE revolves around the presence and absence of sound, but the Academy will want to give something to FIRST MAN.

Should Win:    A QUIET PLACE

Will Win:          FIRST MAN (PCI 4)

Best Visual Effects

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

CHRISTOPHER ROBIN

FIRST MAN

READY PLAYER ONE

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY

I sat through all 2½ hours of INFINITY WAR, so for that reason and that reason alone, I’ll go with it.

Should and Will Win:  AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (PCI 3)

Best Makeup

BORDER

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

VICE

The Academy loves to see actors transformed, so VICE seems like a pretty sure bet here.  That is, unless it wins Film Editing, then MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS may squeak out a win.

Should and Will Win:  VICE (PCI 4)

Best Documentary Short Subject

BLACK SHEEP

END GAME

LIFEBOAT

A NIGHT AT THE GARDEN

PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE.

Will Win:          BLACK SHEEP (PCI 3)

Best Animated Short Subject

ANIMAL BEHAVIOR

BAO

LATE AFTERNOON

ONE SMALL STEP

WEEKENDS

Will Win:          BAO (PCI 4)

Best Live Action Short Subject

DETAINMENT

FAUVE

MARGUERITE

MOTHER

SKIN

Will Win:          MARGUERITE (PCI 2)