Though movie theaters have opened up, it feels even stranger this year to be preparing for the Oscars® than last year in the dark heart of a pandemic. (Who are we kidding? We’re still in a pandemic, we just have better options.) Nevertheless, it’s time to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Below are my predictions for the 2021 Oscars®. To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5. 1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.
And the nominees are:
Best Picture:
BELFAST
CODA
DON’T LOOK UP
DRIVE MY CAR
DUNE
KING RICHARD
LICORICE PIZZA
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE POWER OF THE DOG
WEST SIDE STORY
Up until the Producers Guild gave its top prize to CODA it was conventional wisdom that THE POWER OF THE DOG would win Best Picture. Now all that has changed, and CODA is now running neck-in-neck with Jane Campion’s difficult western and will likely win. Though even that’s less than certain. In hindsight this switch in favor seems inevitable. THE POWER OF THE DOG is a brilliant, prickly, challenging picture. CODA is very much a feel-good/tear-jerking comedy drama with touching performances about the struggles of a hearing child who lives with deaf parents and a deaf brother. In the end I suspect the Academy® will congratulate itself on rewarding a movie that makes its members feel virtuous in their decision. This may sound callous but isn’t meant to be. I like CODA. It’s a good movie. I would argue, however, that it’s not a great movie. And it certainly isn’t the best movie on the list. That would be DRIVE MY CAR.
Should Win: DRIVE MY CAR
Will Win: CODA (PCI 2)
Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA
Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST
Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, DRIVE MY CAR
Steven Spielberg, WEST SIDE STORY
Because CODA’s director Sian Heder was not nominated in this category, the Academy® will reward Jane Campion here. And, frankly, she deserves it. The film’s pace and tone is a singular, visionary feat. If there were to be an upset it would likely be Kenneth Branagh for BELFAST (the least deserving nominee in this category) or Steven Spielberg for WEST SIDE STORY (unlikely).
Should and Will Win: Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG (PCI 3)
Overlooked: David Lowery, THE GREEN KNIGHT
Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Olivia Colman, THE LOST DAUGHTER
Penelope Cruz, PARALLEL MOTHERS
Nicole Kidman, BEING THE RICARDOS
Kristen Stewart, SPENCER
There are decent arguments to be made for any of the actresses in this category. The always underrated Kristen Stewart is quite good in the bad SPENCER. Nicole Kidman mostly succeeds as Lucille Ball in BEING THE RICARDOS, but the performance feels less than Oscar® worthy. I’ve heard great things about Penelope Cruz in PARALLEL MOTHERS but haven’t yet seen it. The most likely winners, Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE and Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER, deliver top grade work. Chastain is overdue, so I will give it to her this year. I think the Academy® will too.
Should and Will Win: Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Renate Reinsve, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Best Actor:
Javier Bardem, BEING THE RICARDOS
Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Andrew Garfield, TICK, TICK… BOOM!
Will Smith, KING RICHARD
Denzel Washington, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
There is really no question as to who should win in this category. Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG delivers -- fearlessly. But this will be Will Smith’s year. He’s as good as he’s ever been in KING RICHARD, but his performance lacks the range and ruthlessness of Cumberbatch’s. Still you can’t fault the Academy®. And if you want to win your Oscar® pool, failing to choose Smith could be fatal.
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will Win: Will Smith, KING RICHARD (PCI 5)
Overlooked: Hidetoshi Nishijima, DRIVE MY CAR
Best Supporting Actress:
Jessie Buckley, THE LOST DAUGHTER
Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY
Judi Dench, BELFAST
Kirsten Dunst, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD
I was happy to see Aunjanue Ellis get recognized for her exceptional support in KING RICHARD. Likewise, Jessie Buckley paired beautifully with Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER. Kirsten Dunst held her own and then some against Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG. And Judi Dench got nominated (again!) for a role that felt insubstantial in BELFAST. I have to go with Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE STORY. She’s a true triple threat, and she will take home gold.
Should and Will Win: Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY (PCI 5)
Overlooked: Toko Miura, DRIVE MY CAR
Best Supporting Actor:
Ciaran Hinds, BELFAST
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, THE POWER OF THE DOG
J.K. Simmons, BEING THE RICARDOS
Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Much like the best actor category, one performance towers above the others but will not win. That belongs to Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG. His was so subtle I wanted to re-watch the film after it ended to see how he (and writer/director Jane Campion) pulled the twist ending off. However, Troy Kotsur will win for his funny and heartbreaking role as a deaf father trying to do right by his hearing daughter in CODA. No complaints. Apples and oranges. Sinewy versus blunt. It’s a shame both can’t win. Well, I suppose they could, but that seems unlikely.
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will Win: Troy Kosur, CODA (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Anders Danielsen Lie, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Maggie Gyllenhaal, THE LOST DAUGHTER
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, DRIVE MY CAR
Sian Heder, CODA
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, DUNE
Here we go again. Up until the WGA gave CODA its nod for best adapted screenplay, THE POWER OF THE DOG was the frontrunner. Jane Campion was not nominated (or eligible) for the WGA award for jurisdictional reasons, but I believe, for similar reasons as discussed in Best Picture category, that the Academy® will give the award to writer/director Sian Heder. In my prediction universe they already gave the directing award to Campion, so they’ll share the love. I would recognize Campion before Heder, but Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamas Oe deserve the award for DRIVE MY CAR, the expansive and powerful adaptation of the Haruki Murakami short story. For a more detailed discussion of the adapted screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.
Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, DRIVE MY CAR
Will Win: Sian Heder, CODA (PCI 2)
Overlooked: David Lowery, THE GREEN KNIGHT
Best Original Screenplay:
Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA
Zach Baylin, KING RICHARD
Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST
Adam McKay, David Sirota, DON'T LOOK UP
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
DON’T LOOK UP won the WGA’s original screenplay, and I suspect it’s more for being an allegory for the climate disaster than for any skill in tone or storytelling. I did not like it, so I may have a blind side here when I suggest that Paul Thomas Anderson could win for his rollicking LICORICE PIZZA. There’s a better chance that Kenneth Branagh will win for his memoir BELFAST, which the Academy® could reward here, thus preventing it from otherwise getting shut out. All that said, I would pick Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier’s breezy yet insightful and moving THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD as my favorite nominated original script. For a more detailed discussion of the original screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.
Should Win: Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, THE WORST PERSON IN THE
WORLD
Will Win: Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST (PCI 2)
Overlooked: Michael Sarnoski, Vanessa Block, PIG
Best Animated Film
ENCANTO
FLEE
LUCA
THE MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES
RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON
I was not able to see THE MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES, and I’ve heard good things. Of the others my hands down choice would be FLEE, an animated documentary about the trials of an Afghan refugee, that surprised and moved me more than any of the others. The prize will go to ENCANTO, which, like the remaining choices, suffers from middlebrow choices and cloying uplift rather than true emotional insight.
Should Win: FLEE
Will Win: ENCANTO (PCI 3)
Best International Film
DRIVE MY CAR (Japan)
FLEE (Denmark)
THE HAND OF GOD (Italy)
LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM (Bhutan)
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (Norway)
I did not see LUNANA, and THE HAND OF GOD was a bit of a mess. FLEE and THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD are exceptional films and have the potential to win in any year in which they’re not competing against DRIVE MY CAR. Unfortunately for them, they are.
Should and Will Win: DRIVE MY CAR (PCI 5)
Best Documentary Feature
ASCENSION
ATTICA
FLEE
SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)
WRITING WITH FIRE
Of the nominated films I was only able to see FLEE and SUMMER OF SOUL. I have heard exceptional things about ATTICA. It would be hard for me to pick a favorite of the two I have seen, but since I already lauded FLEE, I’m going to go with SUMMER OF SOUL. Which will also win.
Should and Will Win: SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) (PCI 4)
Best Cinematography
Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Greig Fraser, DUNE
Janusz Kaminski, WEST SIDE STORY
Dan Laustsen, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Ari Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG
The nominees in this category are uniformly excellent and quite varied in look. Grieg Fraser will likely win for DUNE, but my personal favorite is Ari Wegner’s work in THE POWER OF THE DOG.
Should Win: Ari Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will Win: Greig Fraser, DUNE (PC 3)
Best Film Editing
Hank Corwin, DON’T LOOK UP
Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum, TICK, TICK… BOOM!
Pamela Martin, KING RICHARD
Peter Sciberras, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Joe Walker, DUNE
DUNE will be cleaning up in most of the technical categories, and Joe Walker is favored to win. I find that disappointing, since the film’s pace was uninvolving and too slow (especially for a science fiction epic). Peter Sciberras’s pace in THE POWER OF THE DOG is also slow but better suits the material. It deserves the prize.
Should Win: Peter Sciberras, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will Win: Joe Walker, DUNE (PC 3)
Best Costume Design
Jenny Beavan, CRUELLA
Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran, CYRANO
Luis Sequeira, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Paul Tazewell, WEST SIDE STORY
Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan, DUNE
Jenny Beavan will likely win for CRUELLA, but I’d much prefer Paul Tazewell receive the nod for WEST SIDE STORY.
Should Win: Paul Tazewell, WEST SIDE STORY
Will Win: Jenny Beavan, CRUELLA (PC 3)
Best Production Design
DUNE
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE POWER OF THE DOG
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY
DUNE will continue its near sweep of the technical awards. Its world building is impressive, but a better choice would be NIGHTMARE ALLEY. Its production design oozes despair and paranoia.
Should Win: NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Will Win: DUNE (PC 4)
Best Original Score
Nicholas Britell, DON’T LOOK UP
Germaine Franco, ENCANTO
Jonny Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Alberto Iglesias, PARALLEL MOTHERS
Hans Zimmer, DUNE
I know many folks who rave about Hans Zimmer’s score for DUNE. I felt like I’d heard it before, but I’m in the minority. Jonny Greenwood’s disturbing score for THE POWER OF THE DOG sounds like an organic part of the landscape.
Should Win: Jonny Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will Win: Hans Zimmer, DUNE (PC 3)
Best Original Song
“Be Alive,” KING RICHARD
“Dos Oruguitas,” ENCANTO
“Down to Joy,” BELFAST
“No Time to Die,” NO TIME TO DIE
“Somehow You Do,” FOUR GOOD DAYS
I saw four of the nominated movies, but I only recall the nominated song from “No Time to Die,” because, well, it’s the title track. I think it will win, though “Dos Oruguitas” from ENCANTO may squeak out a victory.
Should and Will Win: “No Time to Die,” NO TIME TO DIE (PC 2)
Best Sound
BELFAST
DUNE
NO TIME TO DIE
THE POWER OF THE DOG
WEST SIDE STORY
Normally I would predict the musical (if there is one) to win in this category. However, since they merged Sound Mixing and Sound Editing into Best Sound, that formula is less reliable. Once more DUNE is the likely winner, but THE POWER OF THE DOG’s was a more spare, provocative soundscape.
Should Win: THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will Win: DUNE (PC 4)
Best Visual Effects
DUNE
FREE GUY
NO TIME TO DIE
SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
Finally, DUNE wins an award I think it deserves.
Should and Will Win: DUNE (PC 4)
Best Makeup
COMING 2 AMERICA
CRUELLA
DUNE
HOUSE OF GUCCI
THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
HOUSE OF GUCCI was nominated for Jared Leto’s stunt appearance. Ridiculous and pointless. Tammy Faye Baker was known for her makeup, and THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE takes her and her makeup seriously.
Should and Will Win: THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (PC 4)
Best Documentary Short Subject
AUDIBLE
LEAD ME HOME
THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL
THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR
WHEN WE WERE BULLIES
A wild guess.
Will Win: THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL (PC 3)
Best Animated Short Subject
AFFAIRS OF THE ART
BESTIA
BOXBALLET
ROBIN ROBIN
THE WINDSHIELD WIPER
Another wild guess.
Will Win: ROBIN ROBIN (PC 2)
Best Live Action Short Subject
ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN
THE DRESS
THE LONG GOODBYE
ON MY MIND
PLEASE HOLD
One last wild guess.
Will Win: THE LONG GOODBYE (PC 3)
