Thursday, March 24, 2022

THE POPE'S 2021 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

 

Though movie theaters have opened up, it feels even stranger this year to be preparing for the Oscars® than last year in the dark heart of a pandemic.  (Who are we kidding? We’re still in a pandemic, we just have better options.)  Nevertheless, it’s time to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Below are my predictions for the 2021 Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.

 

And the nominees are:

 

Best Picture:

 

BELFAST

CODA

DON’T LOOK UP

DRIVE MY CAR

DUNE

KING RICHARD

LICORICE PIZZA

NIGHTMARE ALLEY

THE POWER OF THE DOG

WEST SIDE STORY

 

Up until the Producers Guild gave its top prize to CODA it was conventional wisdom that THE POWER OF THE DOG would win Best Picture.  Now all that has changed, and CODA is now running neck-in-neck with Jane Campion’s difficult western and will likely win.  Though even that’s less than certain.  In hindsight this switch in favor seems inevitable.  THE POWER OF THE DOG is a brilliant, prickly, challenging picture.  CODA is very much a feel-good/tear-jerking comedy drama with touching performances about the struggles of a hearing child who lives with deaf parents and a deaf brother.  In the end I suspect the Academy® will congratulate itself on rewarding a movie that makes its members feel virtuous in their decision.  This may sound callous but isn’t meant to be.  I like CODA.  It’s a good movie.  I would argue, however, that it’s not a great movie.  And it certainly isn’t the best movie on the list.  That would be DRIVE MY CAR.

 

Should Win:     DRIVE MY CAR

Will Win:          CODA (PCI 2)

 

Best Director:

 

Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST

Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, DRIVE MY CAR

Steven Spielberg, WEST SIDE STORY

 

Because CODA’s director Sian Heder was not nominated in this category, the Academy® will reward Jane Campion here.  And, frankly, she deserves it.  The film’s pace and tone is a singular, visionary feat.  If there were to be an upset it would likely be Kenneth Branagh for BELFAST (the least deserving nominee in this category) or Steven Spielberg for WEST SIDE STORY (unlikely).

 

Should and Will Win:   Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    David Lowery, THE GREEN KNIGHT

 

Best Actress:

 

Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE

Olivia Colman, THE LOST DAUGHTER

Penelope Cruz, PARALLEL MOTHERS

Nicole Kidman, BEING THE RICARDOS

Kristen Stewart, SPENCER

 

There are decent arguments to be made for any of the actresses in this category.  The always underrated Kristen Stewart is quite good in the bad SPENCER. Nicole Kidman mostly succeeds as Lucille Ball in BEING THE RICARDOS, but the performance feels less than Oscar® worthy.  I’ve heard great things about Penelope Cruz in PARALLEL MOTHERS but haven’t yet seen it.  The most likely winners, Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE and Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER, deliver top grade work.  Chastain is overdue, so I will give it to her this year.  I think the Academy® will too.

 

Should and Will Win:   Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (PCI 4)

Overlooked:              Renate Reinsve, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

 

Best Actor:

 

Javier Bardem, BEING THE RICARDOS

Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Andrew Garfield, TICK, TICK… BOOM!

Will Smith, KING RICHARD

Denzel Washington, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

 

There is really no question as to who should win in this category.  Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG delivers -- fearlessly.  But this will be Will Smith’s year.  He’s as good as he’s ever been in KING RICHARD, but his performance lacks the range and ruthlessness of Cumberbatch’s.  Still you can’t fault the Academy®.  And if you want to win your Oscar® pool, failing to choose Smith could be fatal.

 

Should Win:     Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Will Smith, KING RICHARD (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Hidetoshi Nishijima, DRIVE MY CAR

 

Best Supporting Actress:

 

Jessie Buckley, THE LOST DAUGHTER

Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY

Judi Dench, BELFAST

Kirsten Dunst, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD

 

I was happy to see Aunjanue Ellis get recognized for her exceptional support in KING RICHARD.  Likewise, Jessie Buckley paired beautifully with Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER.  Kirsten Dunst held her own and then some against Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG.  And Judi Dench got nominated (again!) for a role that felt insubstantial in BELFAST.  I have to go with Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE STORY.  She’s a true triple threat, and she will take home gold.

 

Should and Will Win:   Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Toko Miura, DRIVE MY CAR

 

Best Supporting Actor:

 

Ciaran Hinds, BELFAST

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, THE POWER OF THE DOG

J.K. Simmons, BEING THE RICARDOS

Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG

 

Much like the best actor category, one performance towers above the others but will not win.  That belongs to Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG.  His was so subtle I wanted to re-watch the film after it ended to see how he (and writer/director Jane Campion) pulled the twist ending off.  However, Troy Kotsur will win for his funny and heartbreaking role as a deaf father trying to do right by his hearing daughter in CODA.  No complaints.  Apples and oranges.  Sinewy versus blunt.  It’s a shame both can’t win.  Well, I suppose they could, but that seems unlikely.

 

Should Win:     Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Troy Kosur, CODA (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Anders Danielsen Lie, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

 

Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Maggie Gyllenhaal, THE LOST DAUGHTER

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, DRIVE MY CAR

Sian Heder, CODA

Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, DUNE

 

Here we go again.  Up until the WGA gave CODA its nod for best adapted screenplay, THE POWER OF THE DOG was the frontrunner.  Jane Campion was not nominated (or eligible) for the WGA award for jurisdictional reasons, but I believe, for similar reasons as discussed in Best Picture category, that the Academy® will give the award to writer/director Sian Heder.  In my prediction universe they already gave the directing award to Campion, so they’ll share the love.  I would recognize Campion before Heder, but Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamas Oe deserve the award for DRIVE MY CAR, the expansive and powerful adaptation of the Haruki Murakami short story.  For a more detailed discussion of the adapted screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.

 

Should Win:     Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, DRIVE MY CAR

Will Win:          Sian Heder, CODA (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    David Lowery, THE GREEN KNIGHT

 

Best Original Screenplay:

 

Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

Zach Baylin, KING RICHARD

Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST

Adam McKay, David Sirota, DON'T LOOK UP

Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

 

DON’T LOOK UP won the WGA’s original screenplay, and I suspect it’s more for being an allegory for the climate disaster than for any skill in tone or storytelling.  I did not like it, so I may have a blind side here when I suggest that Paul Thomas Anderson could win for his rollicking LICORICE PIZZA.  There’s a better chance that Kenneth Branagh will win for his memoir BELFAST, which the Academy® could reward here, thus preventing it from otherwise getting shut out.  All that said, I would pick Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier’s breezy yet insightful and moving THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD as my favorite nominated original script.  For a more detailed discussion of the original screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.

 

Should Win:     Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, THE WORST PERSON IN THE

                                                                    WORLD

Will Win:          Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    Michael Sarnoski, Vanessa Block, PIG

 

Best Animated Film

 

ENCANTO

FLEE

LUCA

THE MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES

RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON

 

I was not able to see THE MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES, and I’ve heard good things.  Of the others my hands down choice would be FLEE, an animated documentary about the trials of an Afghan refugee, that surprised and moved me more than any of the others.  The prize will go to ENCANTO, which, like the remaining choices, suffers from middlebrow choices and cloying uplift rather than true emotional insight.

 

Should Win:     FLEE

Will Win:          ENCANTO (PCI 3)

 

Best International Film

 

DRIVE MY CAR (Japan)

FLEE (Denmark)

THE HAND OF GOD (Italy)

LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM (Bhutan)

THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (Norway)

 

I did not see LUNANA, and THE HAND OF GOD was a bit of a mess.  FLEE and THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD are exceptional films and have the potential to win in any year in which they’re not competing against DRIVE MY CAR.  Unfortunately for them, they are.

 

Should and Will Win:   DRIVE MY CAR (PCI 5)

 

Best Documentary Feature

 

ASCENSION

ATTICA

FLEE

SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)

WRITING WITH FIRE

 

Of the nominated films I was only able to see FLEE and SUMMER OF SOUL.  I have heard exceptional things about ATTICA.  It would be hard for me to pick a favorite of the two I have seen, but since I already lauded FLEE, I’m going to go with SUMMER OF SOUL.  Which will also win.

 

Should and Will Win:   SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) (PCI 4)

 

Best Cinematography

 

Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Greig Fraser, DUNE

Janusz Kaminski, WEST SIDE STORY

Dan Laustsen, NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Ari Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG

 

The nominees in this category are uniformly excellent and quite varied in look.  Grieg Fraser will likely win for DUNE, but my personal favorite is Ari Wegner’s work in THE POWER OF THE DOG.

 

Should Win:     Ari Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Greig Fraser, DUNE (PC 3)

 

Best Film Editing

 

Hank Corwin, DON’T LOOK UP

Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum, TICK, TICK… BOOM!

Pamela Martin, KING RICHARD

Peter Sciberras, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Joe Walker, DUNE

 

DUNE will be cleaning up in most of the technical categories, and Joe Walker is favored to win.  I find that disappointing, since the film’s pace was uninvolving and too slow (especially for a science fiction epic).  Peter Sciberras’s pace in THE POWER OF THE DOG is also slow but better suits the material.  It deserves the prize.

 

Should Win:     Peter Sciberras, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Joe Walker, DUNE (PC 3)

 

Best Costume Design

 

Jenny Beavan, CRUELLA

Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran, CYRANO

Luis Sequeira, NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Paul Tazewell, WEST SIDE STORY

Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan, DUNE

 

Jenny Beavan will likely win for CRUELLA, but I’d much prefer Paul Tazewell receive the nod for WEST SIDE STORY.

 

Should Win:     Paul Tazewell, WEST SIDE STORY

Will Win:          Jenny Beavan, CRUELLA (PC 3)

 

Best Production Design

 

DUNE

NIGHTMARE ALLEY

THE POWER OF THE DOG

THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

WEST SIDE STORY

 

DUNE will continue its near sweep of the technical awards.  Its world building is impressive, but a better choice would be NIGHTMARE ALLEY.  Its production design oozes despair and paranoia.

 

Should Win:     NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Will Win:          DUNE (PC 4)

 

Best Original Score

 

Nicholas Britell, DON’T LOOK UP

Germaine Franco, ENCANTO

Jonny Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Alberto Iglesias, PARALLEL MOTHERS

Hans Zimmer, DUNE

 

I know many folks who rave about Hans Zimmer’s score for DUNE.  I felt like I’d heard it before, but I’m in the minority.  Jonny Greenwood’s disturbing score for THE POWER OF THE DOG sounds like an organic part of the landscape.

 

Should Win:     Jonny Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Hans Zimmer, DUNE (PC 3)

 

Best Original Song

 

“Be Alive,” KING RICHARD

“Dos Oruguitas,” ENCANTO

“Down to Joy,” BELFAST

“No Time to Die,” NO TIME TO DIE

“Somehow You Do,” FOUR GOOD DAYS

 

I saw four of the nominated movies, but I only recall the nominated song from “No Time to Die,” because, well, it’s the title track.  I think it will win, though “Dos Oruguitas” from ENCANTO may squeak out a victory.

 

Should and Will Win:   “No Time to Die,” NO TIME TO DIE (PC 2)

 

Best Sound

 

BELFAST

DUNE

NO TIME TO DIE

THE POWER OF THE DOG

WEST SIDE STORY

 

Normally I would predict the musical (if there is one) to win in this category. However, since they merged Sound Mixing and Sound Editing into Best Sound, that formula is less reliable.  Once more DUNE is the likely winner, but THE POWER OF THE DOG’s was a more spare, provocative soundscape.

 

Should Win:     THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          DUNE (PC 4)

 

Best Visual Effects

 

DUNE

FREE GUY

NO TIME TO DIE

SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME

 

Finally, DUNE wins an award I think it deserves.

 

Should and Will Win:   DUNE (PC 4)

 

Best Makeup

 

COMING 2 AMERICA

CRUELLA

DUNE

HOUSE OF GUCCI

THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE

 

HOUSE OF GUCCI was nominated for Jared Leto’s stunt appearance.  Ridiculous and pointless.  Tammy Faye Baker was known for her makeup, and THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE takes her and her makeup seriously.

 

Should and Will Win:   THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (PC 4)

 

Best Documentary Short Subject

 

AUDIBLE

LEAD ME HOME

THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL

THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR

WHEN WE WERE BULLIES

 

A wild guess.

 

Will Win:          THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL (PC 3)

 

Best Animated Short Subject

 

AFFAIRS OF THE ART

BESTIA

BOXBALLET

ROBIN ROBIN

THE WINDSHIELD WIPER

 

Another wild guess.

 

Will Win:          ROBIN ROBIN (PC 2)

 

Best Live Action Short Subject

 

ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN

THE DRESS

THE LONG GOODBYE

ON MY MIND

PLEASE HOLD

 

One last wild guess.

 

Will Win:          THE LONG GOODBYE (PC 3)

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