THE POPE’S 2017 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  This year the Academy has broadened its membership to include more diversity.  Will this affect the final vote?  It certainly seems to have affected the nominations.  We’ll see.  Below are my predictions for the 2017 Oscars®.

To assist with your own predictions I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not very confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Mostly confident, 5=Very confident.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

DARKEST HOUR

DUNKIRK

GET OUT

LADY BIRD

PHANTOM THREAD

THE POST

THE SHAPE OF WATER

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

As in most years past Best Picture will come down to two films:  THE SHAPE OF WATER and THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI.  With the increase in nominated films (up to 10) and the change in voting methodology (ranking films from 1 thru 9, in this instance) a film need not have the most #1 votes to prevail.  Now a #2 or a #3 ranking could spell the difference between a LA LA LAND and a MOONLIGHT.  If you put credence in award history your best bet is THREE BILLBOARDS, which won the Golden Globe for Drama, the SAG Ensemble award, and the BAFTA Best Picture.  Item of note:  THREE BILLBOARDS did not snag a Best Director nomination.  It’s rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nod.  Last exception:  ARGO in 2013.  THE SHAPE OF WATER, on the other hand, has won almost every Best Director award this season.  If I could vote I would pick GET OUT, a film that will be discussed decades from now.  If I dare think like the Academy I would predict THE SHAPE OF WATER.  If I had my druthers THE FLORIDA PROJECT would be nominated rather than DARKEST HOUR.

Should Win:     GET OUT

Will Win:          THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson, PHANTOM THREAD

Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD

Christopher Nolan, DUNKIRK

Jordan Peele, GET OUT

Guillermo del Toro has won almost every directing award this season.  It seems unlikely the Academy will break the trend.

Should and Will Win:   Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Sean Baker, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Actress:

Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Margot Robbie, I, TONYA

Saoirse Ronan, LADY BIRD

Meryl Streep, THE POST

In an average year any one of these remarkable performances could reasonably win.  But this is not an average year.  Absent a five-way tie, I predict Frances McDormand will earn her second Oscar® for THREE BILLBOARDS.  However, I would be thrilled if Sally Hawkins won.

Should Win:     Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Will Win:          Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING,

                                                             MISSOURI (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Vicky Krieps, PHANTOM THREAD

Best Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Daniel Day-Lewis, PHANTOM THREAD

Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT

Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR

Denzel Washington, ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.

Gary Oldman is the closest thing to a slam dunk this year, despite the film abandoning him (metaphorically) at Dunkirk with its frustrating mix of tedium and silliness.  Denzel Washington gets the consolation slot abandoned by James Franco after abuse accusations derailed his chances.  Robert Pattinson’s fearless turn in GOOD TIME deserves the slot more.  My vote would go to Daniel Kaluuya.

Should Win:     Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT

Will Win:          Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Robert Pattinson, GOOD TIME

Best Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, MUDBOUND

Allison Janney, I, TONYA

Lesley Manville, PHANTOM THREAD

Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD

Octavia Spencer, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf have been doing exceptional, underrated work for years now.  It’s a shame both can’t win.  Metcalf gives the more complex, nuanced performance, but Janney gets the showier part and runs with it.  I’d give the award to Metcalf, but Janney will win.  Do yourself a favor and rent THE FLORIDA PROJECT, a heartbreaking movie with a terrific performance by 7-year-old Brooklyn Prince.

Should Win:     Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD

Will Win:          Allison Janney, I, TONYA (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Brooklyn Prince, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Woody Harrelson, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Richard Jenkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Christopher Plummer, ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD

Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

A category chock full of great character actors.  Willem Dafoe earned his first nomination for PLATOON in 1987, and he deserves the award here for his subtle, compassionate work.  Still my money is on Sam Rockwell, an always exceptional actor in a showpiece role, for the win.  Armie Hammer should have been included in this list for his enigmatic performance in CALL ME BY YOUR NAME.

Should Win:     Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Will Win:          Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING,

                                                  MISSOURI (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Armie Hammer, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, LOGAN

James Ivory, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, THE DISASTER ARTIST

Aaron Sorkin, MOLLY’S GAME

Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, MUDBOUND

For a more in-depth discussion of the adapted screenplay nominees, please check out Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar 2018 podcast (www.onthepage.tv).  James Ivory will win because 1) he’s had a long and respected career as a producer, director and writer without winning an Oscar®; and 2) CALL ME BY YOUR NAME is the only adapted screenplay nominee also nominated for Best Picture.

Should Win:     Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, THE DISASTER ARTIST

Will Win:          James Ivory, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    James Gray, THE LOST CITY OF Z

Best Original Screenplay:

Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD

Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, THE BIG SICK

Martin McDonagh, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Jordan Peele, GET OUT

For a more in-depth discussion of the original screenplay nominees, please check out Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar 2018 podcast (www.onthepage.tv).  Because Martin McDonagh was snubbed in the Best Director category conventional wisdom would suggest the Academy would reward him with a screenplay Oscar®.  Quite possible.  However, THREE BILLBOARDS will likely be getting plenty of acting love and quite possibly a Best Picture win.  Jordan Peele has written the movie of the moment, so I predict he earns the gold.

Should and Will Win:   Jordan Peele, GET OUT (PCI 3)

Overlooked:                Mike White, BRAD’S STATUS or BEATRIZ AT DINNER

Best Animated Film:

THE BOSS BABY

THE BREADWINNER

COCO

FERDINAND

LOVING VINCENT

Of the nominees I only saw FERDINAND, which didn’t impress as Best Animated Film.

Should Win:     Couldn’t say.

Will Win:          COCO (PCI 5)

Best Foreign Language Film:

A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile)

THE INSULT (Lebanon)

LOVELESS (Russia)

ON BODY AND SOUL (Hungary)

THE SQUARE (Sweden)

I’ve yet to see any of the nominees.  I hear A FANTASTIC WOMAN is the front-runner. 

Should Win:    Couldn't say.

Will Win:          A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile) (PCI 3)

Best Documentary Feature:

ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL

FACES PLACES

ICARUS

LAST MEN IN ALEPPO

STRONG ISLAND

I’ve yet to see any of the nominees.  I hear great things about FACES PLACES and would love to hear Agnes Varda speak.

Should Win:     Couldn’t say.

Will Win:          FACES PLACES (PCI 4)

Best Cinematography:

Roger Deakins, BLADE RUNNER 2049

Bruno Delbonnel, DARKEST HOUR

Dan Laustsen, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Rachel Morrison, MUDBOUND

Hoyte van Hoytema, DUNKIRK

Roger Deakins may finally get the Oscar® he so richly deserves.  However, Dan Laustsen may play spoiler if SHAPE OF WATER gains momentum.  Or Hoyte van Hoytema if DUNKIRK gets amply rewarded for its technical achievements.

Should and Will Win:   Roger Deakins, BLADE RUNNER 2049 (PCI 3)

Best Film Editing:

Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss, BABY DRIVER

Jon Gregory, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Tatiana S. Riegel, I, TONYA

Lee Smith, DUNKIRK

Sidney Wolinsky, THE SHAPE OF WATER

I’m in the minority and found DUNKIRK’s trifurcated timeline more distancing than immersive.  SHAPE OF WATER, on the other hand, reeled me in.  I’d give the gold to Sidney Wolinsky, but the Academy will probably honor Lee Smith.

Should Win:     Sidney Wolinsky, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Will Win:          Lee Smith, DUNKIRK (PCI 4)

Best Costume Design:

Consolata Boyle, VICTORIA AND ABDUL

Mark Bridges, PHANTOM THREAD

Jacqueline Durran, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

Jacqueline Durran, DARKEST HOUR

Luis Sequeira, THE SHAPE OF WATER

It seems intuitive to give the costume award to a movie about a dress designer.  Who am I to argue?  That said, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST and SHAPE OF WATER are the most likely spoilers.

Should and Will Win:   Mark Bridges, PHANTOM THREAD (PCI 3)

Best Production Design:

BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

BLADE RUNNER 2049

DARKEST HOUR

DUNKIRK

THE SHAPE OF WATER

I found the dark future envisioned by BLADE RUNNER 2049 most compelling.  However, the Academy will probably reward the dark fairy tale of SHAPE OF WATER.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049

Will Win:          THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 4)

Best Original Score:

Carter Burwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Alexandre Desplat, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Jonny Greenwood, PHANTOM THREAD

John Williams, STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

Hans Zimmer, DUNKIRK

Jonny Greenwood’s score was easily my favorite this year.  The likely winner, however, is Alexandre Desplat.

Should Win:     Jonny Greenwood, PHANTOM THREAD

Will Win:          Alexander Desplat, THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 4)

Best Original Song:

“Mighty River,” MUDBOUND

“Mystery of Love,” CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

“Remember Me,” COCO

“Stand Up for Something,” MARSHALL

“This Is Me,” THE GREATEST SHOWMAN

The only song I remember (and remember liking) is Sufjan Stevens’ “Mystery of Love.”  The rest is noise.

Should Win:     “Mystery of Love,” CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Will Win:          “Remember Me,” COCO (PCI 3)

Best Sound Mixing:

BABY DRIVER

BLADE RUNNER 2049

DUNKIRK

THE SHAPE OF WATER

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

DUNKIRK will probably win, but it loses points for Hans Zimmer’s grating score accompanying the soundscape.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049

Will Win:          DUNKIRK (PCI 3)

Best Sound Editing:

BABY DRIVER

BLADE RUNNER 2049

DUNKIRK

THE SHAPE OF WATER

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

War movies seem to garner sound editing awards (I think), so I’m going with DUNKIRK.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049

Will Win:          DUNKIRK (PCI 3)

Best Visual Effects:

BLADE RUNNER 2049

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 2

KONG: SKULL ISLAND

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES

The myriad ape effects in WAR FOR are certainly a virtuoso achievement, but I found its whole less than the sum of its parts.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049

Will Win:          WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES (PCI 2)

Best Makeup:

DARKEST HOUR

VICTORIA AND ABDUL

WONDER

Gary Oldman should give his Oscar® to the makeup designer as well.

Should and Will Win:   DARKEST HOUR (PCI 5)

Best Documentary Short Subject:

EDITH+EDDIE

HEAVEN IS A TRAFFIC JAM ON THE 405

HEROIN(E)

KNIFE SKILLS

TRAFFIC STOP

No clue, so I’ll guess.

Will Win:          EDITH+EDDIE (PCI 1)

Best Animated Short Subject:

DEAR BASKETBALL

GARDEN PARTY

LOU

NEGATIVE SPACE

REVOLTING RHYMES

Kobe Bryant produced DEAR BASKETBALL, and that’s why I’m picking it.

Will Win:          DEAR BASKETBALL (PCI 3)

Best Live Action Short Subject:

DeKALB ELEMENTARY

THE ELEVEN O’CLOCK

MY NEPHEW EMMETT

THE SILENT CHILD

WATU WOTE/ALL OF US

I’m guessing again.

Will Win:          DeKALB ELEMENTARY (PCI 2)