THE POPE'S 2024 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

Another year, another Oscar® season.  It’s time to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Below are my predictions for the 2024 Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PEREZ
I’M STILL HERE
NICKEL BOYS
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED

The Best Picture slate lacks a clear frontrunner this year.  With rare exception most nominees could be described as problematic for a Best Picture nominee.  The three most “normal” nominees would be THE BRUTALIST, a period epic about the immigrant experience post-World War II; A COMPLETE UNKNOWN, a biopic about Bob Dylan’s transition to electric; and CONCLAVE, a twisty political thriller set in the Vatican.  THE BRUTALIST’s length (three-and-a-half hours), along with its muddled final act and overt pretension are strikes against it.   A COMPLETE UNKNOWN may be too straightforward and the subject too mercurial for its own good. CONCLAVE has the best chance of the three but has an ending that may be too implausible for most to take seriously.  EMILIA PEREZ is strange and outrageous enough to garner multiple nominations but won’t seal the Best Picture deal.  WICKED is certainly popular, but the choice to bifurcate the story left this viewer unsatisfied.  NICKEL BOYS is powerful but the film’s point of view is off-putting.  The closest thing to a frontrunner is the unlikely ANORA, about a sex worker who marries the wayward son of wealthy Russian oligarchs and chaos ensues.  It earned a surprise win at the Producers Guild and seems to have momentum.  That said, thanks to ranked choice voting CONCLAVE could sneak in for the win.  I still lean toward ANORA, but confidence is not high.  My personal favorite is I’M STILL HERE, Walter Salles’ beautifully-realized drama about a family torn apart by the Brazilian dictatorship circa 1970.

Should Win:    I’M STILL HERE
Will Win:        ANORA (PCI 1)
Overlooked:    A REAL PAIN
SEPTEMBER 5

Best Director:

Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Sean Baker, ANORA
Brady Corbet, THE BRUTALIST
Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE
James Mangold, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

Brady Corbet was the initial favorite for THE BRUTALIST.  I suspect, however, that upon closer examination voters have seen through the film’s directorial pretensions.  Sean Baker was the surprise winner of the Directors Guild prize for ANORA and is now the Oscar favorite.  Coralie Fargeat was an unlikely (yet deserved) nominee for THE SUBSTANCE, but its pitch black, gruesome satire will have to settle for the nomination.  I would love to see Jacques Audiard win for his truly bonkers, yet involving Brechtian opera – the most original and audacious directorial effort this year.

Should Win:    Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win:        Sean Baker, ANORA (PCI 3)

Best Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, WICKED
Karla Sofia Gascon, EMILIA PEREZ
Mikey Madison, ANORA
Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
Fernanda Torres, I’M STILL HERE

Fernanda Torres and Mikey Madison are the strongest performances in this category.  If Oscar rewarded solely on merit, the award for Best Actress would be between these two.  I would choose Torres.  But Oscar loves a good story, and Demi Moore is this year’s good story.  A comeback performance.  An underrated actress for oh these many years.  Despite THE SUBSTANCE being a dark horror comedy with some of the most horrific effects to splatter on screen this year, Moore will probably win.

Should Win:    Fernanda Torres, I’M STILL HERE
Will Win:        Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE (PCI 3)
Overlooked:    Marianne Jean-Baptiste, HARD TRUTHS

Best Actor:

Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Timothee Chalamet, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Colman Domingo, SING SING
Ralph Fiennes, CONCLAVE
Sebastian Stan, THE APPRENTICE

Adrien Brody gives a towering performance in the oversized epic THE BRUTALIST, but Timothee Chalamet (surprise winner of this year’s SAG award) could pull an upset in James Mangold’s rote biopic of Bob Dylan.  Chalamet seems to have momentum and may give A COMPLETE UNKNOWN its only win of the evening.

Should Win:    Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Will Win:        Timothee Chalamet, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN (PCI 1)

Best Supporting Actress:

Monica Barbaro, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Ariana Grande, WICKED
Felicity Jones, THE BRUTALIST
Isabella Rossellini, CONCLAVE
Zoe Saldana, EMILIA PEREZ

Many might argue that Zoe Saldana is a co-lead in EMILIA PEREZ.  I would agree.  And yet her performance is so electric, so riveting, so fearless, that no one will deny that she deserves Oscar gold.

Should and Will Win:    Zoe Saldana, EMILIA PEREZ (PC 5)

Best Supporting Actor:

Yura Borisov, ANORA
Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
Edward Norton, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Guy Pearce, THE BRUTALIST
Jeremy Strong, THE APPRENTICE

There are many strong performances in this category.  Yura Borisov plays an unexpectedly sensitive soul providing muscle for a Russian oligarch in ANORA.  Guy Pearce is searing as a ruthless, exploitive mid-20th century businessman in THE BRUTALIST.  But this year’s Supporting Actor award will go to Kieran Culkin in Jesse Eisenberg’s sensitively written A REAL PAIN.

Should and Will Win:    Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN (PC 5)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, SING SING
James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, NICKEL BOYS
Peter Straughan, CONCLAVE

Jacques Audiard’s operatic family crime drama EMILIA PEREZ is my favorite, but I’d put my money on Peter Straughn’s CONCLAVE.  Both SING SING and NICKEL BOYS are worthwhile nominees.  Check them out if you can.  If you’re a Bob Dylan fan,  A COMPLETE UNKNOWN has lots of great music but not much insight into the reclusive musician.  For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Adapted Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2025 podcast (link after Best Original Screenplay prediction below).

Should Win:    Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win:        Peter Straughan, CONCLAVE (PCI 4)
Overlooked:    Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega, I’M STILL HERE

Best Original Screenplay:

Sean Baker, ANORA
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David, SEPTEMBER 5
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold, THE BRUTALIST
Jesse Eisenberg, A REAL PAIN
Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE

I feel reasonably confident that Sean Baker’s ANORA will win.  That said, Jesse Eisenberg’s A REAL PAIN, a small but sensitively handled movie, could sneak in under the radar.  I liked the first two hours of THE BRUTALIST, but the last hour lost me.  If I were handing out awards, my vote would be for SEPTEMBER 5, a tense, economical recreation of the tragic 1972 Munich Summer Olympics.  For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Original Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2025 podcast (link after prediction below).

Should Win:    Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David, SEPTEMBER 5
Will Win:        Sean Baker, ANORA (PCI 2)
Overlooked:    Megan Park, MY OLD ASS

https://onthepage.libsyn.com/925-oscar-talk-2025

Best Animated Film:

FLOW
INSIDE OUT 2
MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
THE WILD ROBOT

THE WILD ROBOT is considered the frontrunner in this category.  I found it enjoyable but uninspiring.  INSIDE OUT 2 is better but still a far cry from its exceptional predecessor.  Everyone I’ve spoken with who’s seen FLOW has raved.  For this reason I will root for FLOW but vote for THE WILD ROBOT to win.

Should Win:    FLOW
Will Win:        THE WILD ROBOT (PCI 2)

Best International Feature:

EMILIA PEREZ (France)
FLOW (Latvia)
THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE (Denmark)
I’M STILL HERE (Brazil)
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG (Germany)

Normally I would predict an EMILIA PEREZ win in this category, with its multiple nominations, including Best Picture.  But the Academy will want to give something to I’M STILL HERE (I think they should give more), and this is the most likely category to do so.

Should and Will Win:    I’M STILL HERE (Brazil) (PCI 3)

Best Documentary Feature:

BLACK BOX DIARIES
NO OTHER LAND
PORCELAIN WAR
SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP D’ETAT
SUGARCANE

The only film I saw in this category was SUGARCANE, about the trauma caused by Catholic Church-run Indian schools throughout North America in the first half of the 20th Century.  It was powerful.  However, my understanding is that NO OTHER LAND and PORCELAIN WAR are the most likely winners.  I’m leaning toward NO OTHER LAND.

Should Win:    SUGARCANE
Will Win:        NO OTHER LAND (PCI 2)

Best Cinematography:

Jarin Blaschke, NOSFERATU
Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST
Grieg Fraser, DUNE: PART TWO
Paul Guilhaume, EMILIA PEREZ
Edward Lachman, MARIA

THE BRUTALIST is going to win here, even though Grieg Fraser surpasses himself with his work in DUNE: PART TWO.

Should Win:    Grieg Fraser, DUNE: PART TWO
Will Win:        Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST (PC 4)

Best Film Editing:

Sean Baker, ANORA
Nick Emerson, CONCLAVE
David Jancso, THE BRUTALIST
Myron Kerstein, WICKED
Juliette Welfling, EMILIA PEREZ

The award will come down to either CONCLAVE or ANORA.  I feel CONCLAVE is a stronger choice, but if ANORA picks up Best Picture momentum (which it appears to be doing) it may win this category as well.  I’m going with CONCLAVE.

Should and Will Win:    Nick Emerson, CONCLAVE (PC 2)

Best Costume Design:

Lisy Christi, CONCLAVE
David Crossman, Janty Yates, GLADIATOR II
Linda Muir, David Schwed, NOSFERATU
Arianne Phillips, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Paul Tazewell, WICKED

Paul Tazewell’s WICKED costumes are delightful.  He will win.

Should and Will Win:    Paul Tazewell, WICKED (PC 4)

Best Production Design:

THE BRUTALIST
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
NOSFERATU
WICKED

WICKED will score another technical win here, but DUNE: PART TWO was my favorite.

Should Win:    DUNE: PART TWO
Will Win:        WICKED (PC 3)

Best Original Score:

Volker Bertelmann, CONCLAVE
Daniel Blumberg, THE BRUTALIST
Kris Bowers, THE WILD ROBOT
Clement Ducol and Camille, EMILIA PEREZ
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, WICKED

Bertelmann’s score for CONCLAVE is unnecessarily bombastic; he still thinks he’s scoring ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT.  Blumberg’s score for THE BRUTALIST is pretentious.  It won’t stop it from winning.  My choice would be Clement Ducol and Camille’s score for EMILA PEREZ.

Should Win:    Clement Ducol and Camille, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win:        Daniel Blumberg, THE BRUTALIST (PC 3)
Overlooked:    Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, CHALLENGERS

Best Original Song:

“El Mal”, EMILIA PEREZ
“The Journey”, THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
“Like A Bird”, SING SING
“Mi Camino”, EMILIA PEREZ
“Never Too Late”, ELTON JOHN: NEVER TOO LATE

My favorite musical number from EMILIA PEREZ was “El Mal.”  Happily, it is the likely winner.

Should and Will Win:    “El Mal”, EMILIA PEREZ (PC 5)

Best Sound:

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PEREZ
WICKED
THE WILD ROBOT

DUNE: PART TWO should win unless WICKED pulls an upset.

Should and Will Win:    DUNE: PART TWO (PC 2)

Best Visual Effects:

ALIEN: ROMULUS
BETTER MAN
DUNE: PART TWO
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
WICKED

This feels like a DUNE: PART TWO lock.

Should and Will Win:    DUNE: PART TWO (PC 4)

Best Makeup:

A DIFFERENT MAN
EMILIA PEREZ
NOSFERATU
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED

This is the one award that THE SUBSTANCE deserves.

Should and Will Win:    THE SUBSTANCE (PC 4)

Best Documentary Short Subject:

DEATH BY NUMBERS
I AM READY, WARDEN
INCIDENT
INSTRUMENTS OF A BEATING HEART
THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA

I did not see DEATH BY NUMBERS.  Of the others, my favorite was INCIDENT, made with policy body cam footage during a fatal encounter on a Chicago street in 2018.  I AM READY, WARDEN is the frontrunner, but THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA, about Orin O’Brien, the first full time female member of the New York Philharmonic, is delightful and could upset.

Should Win:    INCIDENT
Will Win:        I AM READY, WARDEN (PC 2)

Best Animated Short Subject:

BEAUTIFUL MEN
IN THE SHADOW OF THE CYPRESS
MAGIC CANDIES
WANDER TO WONDER
YUCK!

I didn’t see any of these.  I hear this will likely come down to BEAUTIFUL MEN or YUCK!

Will Win:    YUCK! (PC 1)

Best Live Action Short Subject:

A LIEN
ANUJA
I’M NOT A ROBOT
THE LAST RANGER
THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT

I did not see A LIEN or THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT.  I enjoyed I’M NOT A ROBOT, a bit of existential dread that we experience almost every day.  THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT is favored to win, though A LIEN is close on its heels.

Should Win:    I’M NOT A ROBOT
Will Win:        THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT (PC 2)

AN INADEQUATE UNKNOWN: A 2024 OVERVIEW

While attempting to assemble a satisfying list of my favorite films of 2024 I realized there was no film (let alone a handful) that truly stood out in a tumultuous year – a year more like a series of escalating shocks rather than discrete days followed by discrete weeks followed by discrete months into a discrete year.  Not since the 2020 pandemic has a movie year felt so haphazard and patched together.  This year isn’t quite that, I suppose, but there’s something missing, a lack, an absence that stymies me.

After nearly a year of COVID isolation anesthetizing me, I vividly recall watching Promising Young Woman in 2021 (it was released in 2020) and being shocked out of my numbness.  Many friends whose opinions I respect did not care for the movie.  Perhaps my own opinion was clouded by my visceral reaction to the film’s third act.  For better or worse that film woke me up from my stupor.  Since then there was 2021’s Drive My Car, speaking to emerging from isolation, there was 2022’s Tar, about the heady seduction of monsters, and 2023’s Anatomy of a Fall, about the unknowability of absolute truth.  These films (and others in those years) spoke very specifically to me and to its particular year.  The films of 2024 have eluded me thus far.

Could this be the aftereffect of the 2023 writer and actor strikes?  Or is it a reaction to a world that has decided it’s time to move on from all the compromises, minor and major, forced on us by the pandemic.  Dammit, we’re going to be normal again if it kills you!!!  Perhaps it’s both.  Whatever the reason, the year’s films don’t fit easily into my social, ethical or political narratives of 2024, at least as far as I can see.  None provides a life raft in raging waters, a lamp in a moonless night, a rope on a sheer rock face.  They feel, despite their many qualities, inadequate.

But there is still plenty worth watching.  Strip away its operatic trappings and Emilia Perez effectively dramatizes how even good intentions are hollowed out by the corruption of money and power.  Meanwhile Conclave confirms that cardinals are people just like us – petty, manipulative, back-stabbing.  And Sean Baker’s romantic comedy Anora is, at its heart, about the working class -- be it sex workers, middle management, or muscle – doing their best to meet unreasonable demands of their clients or bosses.

The film which comes closest to capturing 2024 for me would be Walter Salles’ remarkable I’m Still Here.  It speaks, more than any other film I saw, to the need for joyful perseverance in the face of oppression and fear.  Likewise, Megan Park’s surprising My Old Ass, with its clever time-sharing conceit, reminds us to commit to our lives without apology or fear.  Sounds hokey as I write it, but, believe me, the movie pulls it off.

Time to sign off for the year.  Thanks to all of you for just being you and just being there when needed.  It’s easy to forget how important that is.  And remember to be kind.  I promise to endure if you do (promise, that is).  Until next year.


Brian Pope
February 28, 2025
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THE BEST OF 2024


THE TOP TEN

(in alphabetical order) 

ANORA  Writer/director Sean Baker’s freewheeling romantic comedy set in the world of sex workers, Russian oligarchs, and their henchman never turns as dark as one fears but sticks a landing of tender sadness, thanks to the exceptional Mikey Madison (as the vibrant Anora) and Yura Borisov (as melancholy muscle Igor).

CHALLENGERS  Come to see beautiful people (Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist) in various stages of undress.  Stick around for a propulsive exploration of competition both on and off the tennis court.  Director Luca Guadagnino’s most shamelessly entertaining film boasts a terrific score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

CIVIL WAR  Writer/director Alex Garland’s cautionary fable about a rogue president who turns United States citizens into battling armed factions seems more prescient by the day.  Kirsten Dunst, as a cynical photographer, and Cailee Spaeny, as her protégé, are standouts, with a terrifying cameo by Jesse Plemons that’s difficult to shake off.

CONCLAVE  The death of the Pope sets this Vatican-set thriller in motion.  Screenwriter Peter Straughan navigates the labyrinthine twists effortlessly, while Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow (and a cavalcade of cutthroat cardinals) present as more polite versions of the Roy family from Succession or subtler versions of the Plastics from Mean Girls.

DUNE: PART 2  After the table setting of Part 1, director Denis Villeneuve finally gets to the uneasy, messianic heart of Frank Herbert’s beloved novel.  Technical credits are exceptional, yet amidst the sand-swept visuals, the committed performances of Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson and, yes, Zendaya, still manage to shine.

EMILIA PEREZ  Part political thriller, part family drama, director/adapter Jacques Audiard’s Brechtian opera about a drug lord who disappears then returns in a most unexpected way, may be the most electrifying and surprising movie this year.  Whatever your response to this controversial film may be, there’s little doubt Zoe Saldana’s riveting performance is one of the year’s very best.

I’M STILL HERE   Director Walter Salles’ vibrant and harrowing drama about a family devastated by Brazil’s military dictatorship circa 1970 pulses with life and resilience.  The film’s ensemble is excellent, but Fernanda Torres is the glue that holds the film together.  I came away from the movie resolved and hopeful, and that’s an exceptional feat.  See it if you can.

MY OLD ASS  During a mushroom trip, a free-spirited young woman meets her 39-year-old self who imparts wisdom and warnings from the future.  With this magical realism premise, writer/director Megan Park fashions a whimsical and warm-hearted comedy-drama about facing tough choices and coming to terms with inevitable loss.

A REAL PAIN  On an historical tour of Poland, cousins Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin come to grips with the 20th century pain their Jewish grandmother suffered as well as their own uniquely 21st century pain.  The script by director Eisenberg is often funny and sharply observed, while Culkin’s manic performance is sublime.

SEPTEMBER 5  The terrorist attacks during the 1972 Munich Olympics are retold from the point of view of the American sports broadcasters covering the events from inside the Olympic Village.  Both suspenseful and permeated with dread, the film grapples with dilemmas both practical and ethical, and left this viewer drained and profoundly sad.

Runners Up

(in alphabetical order)

EVIL DOES NOT EXIST
HARD TRUTHS
NICKEL BOYS
SING SING

Honorable Mentions:  THE BRUTALIST; FANCY DANCE; INSIDE OUT 2; THE SUBSTANCE; SUGARCANE; SUPER/MAN: THE CHRISTOPHER REEVE STORY; WICKED


THE BOTTOM THREE

(in alphabetical order)

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES  Like processed cheese, this franchise just keeps going long past its reasonable shelf life.  Bland to the taste and zero nutrition.

THE LAST SHOWGIRL  Hyped as Pamela Anderson’s big dramatic showcase, the film lacks depth or compassion and leans heavily on pity.  Not a compelling look.

LONGLEGS  Osgood Perkins’ dreadfully dull, oppressively pretentious serial killer film doesn’t even have an interesting villain let alone a relatable protagonist.

ACROSS THE ZONE OF INTEREST: A 2023 OVERVIEW

When last we spoke I was quizzing you about what we had learned in 2022.  I know it seems like yesterday, while simultaneously feeling like forever ago.  Is forever ago a thing?  I guess it is now.  Forgive me.  After nearly four years I finally succumbed to the dreaded virus.  I can now officially blame it for any mental failings on my part (as opposed to blaming old age).  It had been such a large, unseen part of my life for so long that when it laid its insidious claim on me, I felt little but anticlimactic disappointment and annoyance.  That, along with runny nose, body aches, and general malaise.

But I digress.  I am really here to talk about movies.  Movies are back, you know.  Or haven’t you heard?  Thanks to Barbenheimer the studios realized that audiences will still go to the theaters in droves if inspired by films that aren’t the same old formulaic, tired-and-tested money grubbers with chaotic action but no soul.  We’ll see how long that lasts.  But it was nice while it lasted.

On the whole 2023 was a good year for movies.  But what exactly separates movies that make my year’s best list from those that don’t?  Unlike a stage production, for example, a movie is a singular event.  The writers, directors, actors, designers, and craftspeople have curated each story element, line of dialogue, image and sonic element to a degree that might exasperate the most chronic sufferer of OCD, then preserve it on celluloid or digitally.

What makes a movie great, I would argue, is offering viewers intellectual, emotional and aesthetic space -- the space for interpretation, the space for ambiguity, the space for mystery.  Far too many movies, be they action, drama, comedy or thriller – dictate what we should think, how we should feel, how we should respond.  Great films want their audiences to participate in them, and are humble enough to let each viewer decide exactly how.  And how do great films do that, you ask?  It’s a mystery to me.

Which brings us to my favorite films of the year.  I spill a lot of ink on them below and won’t belabor it here.  Suffice to say each of the movies discussed or listed meet the criteria (to a greater or lesser degree) of a great film.  At least to me.  I hope you enjoy what you read.  But, more importantly, I hope you discover a movie (or two or three) that you wouldn’t otherwise think of watching.  And I hope you watch them.  And I hope you find something in them that speaks to you.  Because how we respond to a movie is an intangible element of the movie itself.  That is what makes movies (or any art form) worthwhile.

Finally, a sincere thanks to my family and friends who tolerate my endless yammering about movies and other things.  A special thanks to Pilar Alessandra, who has been kind enough to give me time on her On The Page Podcast every year for the last 17 years to pontificate on movies with some thoughtful and articulate fellow film fanatics.  And, of course, thanks to anyone reading these words.

Be safe.  Be well.  And, when in doubt, choose kindness.


Brian Pope
March 8, 2024
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THE TOP TEN

(in alphabetical order)

AMERICAN FICTION  Writer/director Cord Jefferson’s gently acerbic adaptation of Percival Everett’s novel Erasure follows Thelonious “Monk” Ellison (Jeffrey Wright, never better), a frustrated black academic and writer of literature who larks a stereotypical Black novel under a pseudonym.  Neither he nor his agent (a delightful John Ortiz) are prepared when the “joke” book becomes an overnight publishing sensation.  No one – not the publishing industry, not awards panels, not Hollywood, not even Monk himself -- is let off the hook in this insightful comedy.  The excellent ensemble includes Tracee Ellis Ross, Erika Alexander, Leslie Uggams, Issa Rae, Keith David and Sterling K. Brown.

ANATOMY OF A FALL  Part family drama, part courtroom drama, and all mystery, director Justine Triet and her co-writer Arthur Hirari’s absorbing film follows the trial of successful writer Sandra Voyter (the stunning Sandra Huller) accused of pushing her husband to his death out the window of their remote chalet in the French Alps.  Caught in the midst of this family tragedy is their young son Daniel (played by the equally remarkable Milo Machado-Graner) who has limited eyesight due to an accident.  Though the trial finishes with a rendered verdict, Triet never shows us what actually happened.  We are left to ponder the truth for ourselves, unknowable as that may be.

GODZILLA MINUS ONE  In writer/director Takashi Yamazaki’s thrilling new entry into the Godzilla franchise he focuses on the survivor’s guilt of a Japanese kamikaze pilot who faked engine problems to avoid certain death in the waning days of World War II.  As he struggles to put his life back together in Tokyo, a newly radiated kaiju rises from the ocean depths and makes its way to the traumatized islands.  In this adaptation Godzilla represents all the post-war and post-nuclear anxieties of Japan.  And there is no benevolent kaiju to save the day.  The humans must be resourceful and more than a little lucky to stop the unstoppable Godzilla.  The film's characters are surprisingly rich, and the action scenes thrilling.

THE HOLDOVERS  Over Christmas break at a remote prep school outside of Boston, cantankerous ancient history teacher Paul Hunham (a perfect Paul Giamatti) must chaperone willful, abrasive student Angus Tully (an impressive Dominic Sessa) left behind by his mother and stepfather while the rest of the students and most of the staff enjoy the holiday.  Only the school cook Mary Lamb (the remarkable Da’Vine Joy Randolph) remains, grieving over the death of her soldier son in Vietnam (it is 1970).  How these disparate characters deal with each other is an old-fashioned joy, thanks to David Hemingson’s hilarious, warmhearted script.  Director Alexander Payne stages his scenes in the ‘70s style and never allows the film to veer into sentiment.

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON  Director Martin Scorsese and co-writer Eric Roth transform David Grann’s non-fiction FBI procedural into a harrowing drama about the Osage murders in the early 1900s.  Ernest Burkhart (Leonardo DiCaprio) arrives in the oil-rich Osage territory and is taken under the wing of influential William Hale (Robert De Niro).  Hale sets him up as a driver to wealthy native Molly (Lily Gladstone).  Ernest and Molly fall in love and are married.  But the Osage are dying violent deaths, and their vast wealth gradually transferred to white husbands or financial caretakers.  DiCaprio is very good, and De Niro is better.  But Gladstone carries the film, speaking volumes with a glance.  The late Robbie Robertson’s provides the film’s evocative score.

OPPENHEIMER  In adapting American Prometheus by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherman, director Christopher Nolan divides his story into two timelines.  The first concerns Robert Oppenheimer’s (Cillian Murphy) key role in the development of the atomic bomb, and the second concerns former member of the Atomic Energy Commission Lewis Strauss’ (Robert Downey, Jr.) attempt to destroy Oppenheimer’s professional reputation for a perceived slight.  The film looks and sounds great (cinematography by Hoyte Van Hoytema and score by Ludwig Goransson) and moves at a clip without confusing timelines (editing by Jennifer Lame).  Murphy and Downey, Jr. are excellent, with Emily Blunt superb as Oppenheimer’s tough, shrewd wife, Kitty.  An absorbing and cautionary recounting of the birth of the atomic bomb.

PAST LIVES   Have you ever wondered what happened to your childhood love?  Or what might happen if they were to come back into your life?  I know I have.  Writer/director Celine Song ponders just such a scenario in this gentle meditation on the path not taken.  Korean tweens Nora and Hae Sung have an intense kid crush, then Nora’s family moves to North America.  Twelve years later the two (played as adults by Greta Lee and Teo Yoo) find each other on Skype but neither commits to meeting.  After a twelve-year silence Hae Sung visits Nora in New York, but she has married Arthur (John Magaro).  The reunion has repercussions for all three.  Lee, Yoo and Magaro are uniformly excellent, and Song’s insightful script moves imperceptibly to a heartbreaking finish.

POOR THINGS  Greek provocateur Yorgos Lanthimos directs Tony McNamara’s delirious adaptation of Alasdair Gray’s novel, a feminist riff on the Frankenstein myth.  Bella (Emma Stone) is a reanimated woman made by Godwin Baxter (Willem Dafoe) and betrothed to protegee Max McCandles (Ramy Youssef).  Before settling down Bella chooses to abscond with cad Duncan Wedderburn (Mark Ruffalo) for travel, food and hedonism, until the cruel vagaries of life impose themselves.  Stone is stupendous as the willful free spirit, Dafoe is perfection as the deformed father figure, and Rufallo is richly ridiculous as the outmatched Lothario.  A wondrous steampunk production design draws us, like Bella, into this strange new world we can’t help but want to explore in all its dreadful beauty.

SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE  Not even the exceptional SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE can prepare you for the scope and ambition of this superior sequel.  Writers Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Dave Callaham pack more ideas into this animated feature than can be effectively recounted here.  Yet somehow directors Joachim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson hold this sprawling epic together while maintaining a brisk pace that never shortchanges character development.  Standouts in the stellar vocal cast include Shameik Moore, Hailee Steinfeld, Bryan Tyree Henry, Luna Lauren Velez, Jake Johnson and Mahershala Ali.  I speak as a film lover and not a Marvel acolyte -- this movie is truly marvelous.

THE ZONE OF INTEREST  Writer/director Jonathan Glazer’s austere adaptation of Martin Amis’s novel is a harrowing Holocaust film that never witnesses atrocity, only its discarded remnants.  On the surface, Rudolf and Hedwig Hoss (Christian Friedel and Sandra Huller) have a bucolic life with their children – swimming in a nearby river, celebrating birthdays, and having friends over for afternoon tea.  We soon discover their home is yards away from the Auschwitz concentration camp, which Rudolf runs as commandant.  We never see inside the camp itself, but dog barks, clangs of metal, shouts, and occasional gunfire provide a pervasive aural background.  Being passive observers we feel complicit in the horrors we know are occurring just outside the film's vision, and the effect on this viewer was corrosive.  A must see.

Runners Up

(in alphabetical order)

ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME, MARGARET.
BARBIE
MAY DECEMBER
YOU HURT MY FEELINGS

Honorable Mentions:  BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT; JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 4; NYAD; RUSTIN; SAINT OMER; SALTBURN; SHOWING UP; THEATER CAMP

THE POPE'S 2023 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

Another Oscar® broadcast is barreling down upon us, so get out your pencils as we match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  This year has a number of categories which feel inevitable, yet several major categories are surprisingly competitive.  I’ll do my best to provide guidance to help you with your Oscars® pool.

Note the ceremony is being broadcast one hour earlier this year at 4:00 PDT.

Below are my predictions for this year’s Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

AMERICAN FICTION
ANATOMY OF A FALL
BARBIE
THE HOLDOVERS
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
PAST LIVES
POOR THINGS
THE ZONE OF INTEREST

I am very confident OPPENHEIMER will win Best Picture this year.  It checks all the Academy’s boxes.  Expansive in scope and ideas.  Every element exceptional.  That said, due to ranked choice voting in this category, there is a remote chance the film with the second most 1st Place votes sneaks in for a win.  We saw it with SPOTLIGHT in 2015 (edging out THE REVENANT).  We saw it with MOONLIGHT in 2016 (edging out LA LA LAND).  Though a long shot here, keep your eye on THE HOLDOVERS.  In any other year (in the 1970s especially) this heartfelt dramedy would have cleaned up.  Another possibility is POOR THINGS, an outrageous comedy from Greek provocateur Yorgos Lanthimos.  While it has a chance to win technical awards and possibly Emma Stone’s second Oscar®, it may be too “out there” even for the most open minded Academy voters.  Though KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON shouldn’t be dismissed, my sense is that a possible nod for Lily Gladstone’s anchoring performance may be its best shot.  I would love to see ANATOMY OF A FALL win.  Like OPPENHEIMER it has a lot on its mind, but its scope is intimate and interior, with powerhouse performances.  It has a chance in the Original Screenplay category, but Best Picture seems like a real long shot.

Should Win:    ANATOMY OF A FALL
Will Win:         OPPENHEIMER (PCI 4)
Overlooked:    MAY DECEMBER

Best Director:

Jonathan Glazer, THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Yorgos Lanthimos, POOR THINGS
Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER
Martin Scorsese, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Justine Triet, ANATOMY OF A FALL

Despite the Best Director category being stacked with exceptional directors and exceptional films, Christopher Nolan’s victory for OPPENHEIMER is pretty much a given.  It’s a shame the Academy can’t give statues to them all.

Should Win:    Justine Triet, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Will Win:         Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER (PCI 5)
Overlooked:    Greta Gerwig, BARBIE

Best Actress:

Annette Bening, NYAD
Lily Gladstone, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Sandra Huller, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Carey Mulligan, MAESTRO
Emma Stone, POOR THINGS

And so we come to the first toss-up category — Best Actress.  There isn’t a subpar performance in the bunch, but the Oscar® will likely go to either Lily Gladstone for KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON or Emma Stone for POOR THINGS.  Pros for Gladstone:  (a) She’s the first Native American nominated in this category; and (b) Her role is the center of gravity for the film.  Con for Gladstone:  Her performance is subtle.  Pro for Stone:  Hers is a showpiece role with lots of juicy comedy and wild behavior.  Con for Stone:  She already won Best Actress for LA LA LAND in 2016.  If you want to go the way of the contrarian, I’d recommend picking Sandra Huller (my favorite) for ANATOMY OF A FALL.  If Gladstone and Stone were to split the vote, the most likely benefactor would be Huller.

Should Win:    Sandra Huller, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Will Win:         Lily Gladstone, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (PCI 1)
Overlooked:    Margot Robbie, BARBIE

Best Actor:

Bradley Cooper, MAESTRO
Colman Domingo, RUSTIN
Paul Giamatti, THE HOLDOVERS
Cillian Murphy, OPPENHEIMER
Jeffrey Wright, AMERICAN FICTION

With barely a breath we land on the second toss-up category — Best Actor.  In this instance the award will likely go to either Cillian Murphy for OPPENHEIMER or Paul Giamatti for THE HOLDOVERS.  Giamatti was overlooked for exceptional performances in SIDEWAYS and AMERICAN SPLENDOR.  The Academy may decide it’s time to remedy those oversights.  Murphy carries the year’s most lauded film on his narrow shoulders.  He may ride OPPENHEIMER’s deserving coattails to victory.  Contrarians hoping for a split vote between Giamatti and Murphy would do well to consider Jeffrey Wright in AMERICAN FICTION, a consistently terrific actor finally getting a role worthy of his talent.    

Should Win:    Paul Giamatti, THE HOLDOVERS
Will Win:         Cillian Murphy, OPPENHEIMER (PCI 2)
Overlooked:    Leonardo DiCaprio, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Best Supporting Actress:

Emily Blunt, OPPENHEIMER
Danielle Brooks, THE COLOR PURPLE
America Ferrera, BARBIE
Jodie Foster, NYAD
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, THE HOLDOVERS

Da’Vine Joy Randolph will win for THE HOLDOVERS.  Hers is a note-perfect performance.  Emily Blunt stands out in a male-dominated cast in OPPENHEIMER, Danielle Brooks steals the show in THE COLOR PURPLE, America Ferrara is grounding as a struggling single mom in BARBIE, and Jodie Foster is terrific in the underrated NYAD.  As remarkable as these other nominees are, this will not be their year.

Should and Will Win:       Da’Vine Joy Randolph (PCI 5)
Overlooked:                    Julianne Moore, MAY SEPTEMBER
                                        Rachel McAdams, ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME,
                                                                            MARGARET.

Best Supporting Actor:

Sterling K. Brown, AMERICAN FICTION
Robert De Niro, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Robert Downey Jr., OPPENHEIMER
Ryan Gosling, BARBIE
Mark Ruffalo, POOR THINGS

Another category with an abundance of riches.  Sterling K. Brown is as funny as he’s ever been in AMERICAN FICTION, Mark Ruffalo plays the ultimate cad to whiny perfection in POOR THINGS, and Robert De Niro gives his finest performance in over a decade in KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON.  But the contest, such as it is, will be between Ryan Gosling as the guileless Ken in BARBIE and Robert Downey, Jr. as the shifty, spiteful Lewis Strauss in OPPENHEIMER.  My money is on Downey, Jr., but I will root for Gosling.  His performance was Kenough.

Should Win:     Ryan Gosling, BARBIE
Will Win:          Robert Downey Jr., OPPENHEIMER (PCI 4)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, BARBIE
Jonathan Glazer, THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Cord Jefferson, AMERICAN FICTION
Tony McNamara, POOR THINGS
Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER

Jonathan Glazer’s THE ZONE OF INTEREST, about the “bucolic” life of a Nazi family living in the literal shadow of Auschwitz, is an important film and worth seeing.  It’s a tough sell for a win though.  Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach’s delightful BARBIE is uneven at times but sticks the landing.  I suspect it will have to settle for all the money it’s made.  As terrific and worthy as Tony McNamara’s POOR THINGS is, I suspect it’s glorious strangeness will prevent it from winning here (see above).  If OPPENHEIMER is the Oscar® juggernaut it appears to be, Christopher Nolan will take home his third statue.  However, I’m thinking now (thanks to Pilar Alessandra for prompting this thought, and for pointing out that Nolan’s script benefited from exceptional work by the film editor) that the film’s overall success may handicap it in this category, opening the door for Cord Jefferson’s sharply observed AMERICAN FICTION.  A risky choice, but let’s go for it.  For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Adapted Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2024 podcast.  It’s not often that our discussion alters my opinion, but as you will note this year in this category, it did.

Should and Will Win:     Cord Jefferson, AMERICAN FICTION (PCI 1)
Overlooked:                   Kelly Fremon Craig, ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME,
                                                                            MARGARET.

Best Original Screenplay:

Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, MAY DECEMBER
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, MAESTRO
David Hemingson, THE HOLDOVERS
Celine Song, PAST LIVES
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, ANATOMY OF A FALL

Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer’s MAESTRO, about the life of American composer Leonard Bernstein, suffers from too many biopic problems to be in serious contention.  Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik’s MAY DECEMBER, with its blend of domestic melodrama and Hollywood tabloid, has an unusual tone and sordid subject matter which may ultimately turn voters off.  The remaining three choices are unimpeachable.  Celine Song’s gentle and probing PAST LIVES, explores choices imposed and made, with an ending that quietly devastates.  David Hemingson’s THE HOLDOVERS, set in a prep school over winter break, throws together prickly characters each in existential crisis and comes away with a heartwarming comedy-drama short on sentiment and long on humanity.  Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s absorbing and suspenseful mystery ANATOMY OF A FALL follows the trial of a wife suspected of pushing her husband to his death out a window.  Though these last three are all exceptional, the latter is my favorite with its refusal to spoon-feed us a pat solution.  For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Original Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2024 podcast.

Should and Will Win:     Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, ANATOMY OF A FALL (PCI 2)
Overlooked:                   Nicole Holofcener, YOU HURT MY FEELINGS

Best Animated Film:

THE BOY AND THE HERON
ELEMENTAL
NIMONA
ROBOT DREAMS
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

Will THE BOY AND THE HERON be Hayao Miyazaki’s last film?  It’s rumored to be and, from what I hear, it’s beautiful.  This could tip the Academy into voting his way.  Otherwise the likely winner is the ambitious, exciting sequel SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE.  I did see this and can confirm it’s marvelous.  I’ll go with the devil I know.

Should and Will Win:    SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (PCI 3)

Best International Feature:

IO CAPITANO (Italy)
PERFECT DAYS (Japan)
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW (Spain)
THE TEACHER’S LOUNGE (Germany)
THE ZONE OF INTEREST (United Kingdom)

THE ZONE OF INTEREST is the only film in this category nominated for Best Picture and other awards.  It would be astonishing if it didn’t win here.  It’s also the only one I saw, and it is unforgettable.

Should and Will Win:    THE ZONE OF INTEREST (PCI 5)

Best Documentary Feature:

BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT
THE ETERNAL MEMORY
FOUR DAUGHTERS
TO KILL A TIGER
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL

The only nominee I saw was BOBI WINE, about a musician running a populist presidential campaign in Uganda against long odds and a corrupt opponent.  Not a feel good movie, but an inspirational one.  20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL deals with the Ukrainian war and is the most likely winner, but FOUR DAUGHTERS could sneak in a victory.  

Will Win:    20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL (PCI 3)

Best Cinematography:

Edward Lachman, EL CONDE
Matthew Libatique, MAESTRO
Rodrigo Prieto, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Robbie Ryan, POOR THINGS
Hoyte Van Hoytema, OPPENHEIMER

I saw every nominee but for EL CONDE.  A very strong category.  I lean towards OPPENHEIMER not the least because the film is the frontrunner for Best Picture.  Other possible upset winners would be POOR THINGS or KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON.

Should and Will Win:    Hoyte Van Hoytema, OPPENHEIMER (PC 4)

Best Film Editing:

Jennifer Lame, OPPENHEIMER
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, POOR THINGS
Thelma Schoonmaker, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Laurent Senechal, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Kevin Tent, THE HOLDOVERS

OPPENHEIMER is far and away the best edited film of the year.  In any other year, ANATOMY OF A FALL might have won, but this is not any other year.

Should and Will Win:    Jennifer Lame, OPPENHEIMER (PC 4)

Best Costume Design:

Jacqueline Durran, BARBIE
Ellen Mirojnick, OPPENHEIMER
Holly Waddington, POOR THINGS
Jacqueline West, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Janty Yates & David Crossman, NAPOLEON

Here’s my thinking.  Because I suspect POOR THINGS will lose out in the Best Actress category, the Academy will be looking for a technical award to give it.  I’m guessing either Costume Design or Production Design.  But which?  Maybe both?  I thought POOR THINGS’s costumes were superior but was leaning toward BARBIE for this one.  Now I think POOR THINGS.

Should and Will Win:    Holly Waddington, POOR THINGS (PC 1)

Best Production Design:

BARBIE
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
NAPOLEON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS

I’m going to predict POOR THINGS winning here for its delirious steampunk look (following my reasoning above).  Still BARBIE has a legitimate chance here too.  No choice but to commit.

Should and Will Win:    POOR THINGS (PC 2)

Best Original Score:

Jerkin Fendrix, POOR THINGS
Ludwig Goransson, OPPENHEIMER
Laura Karpman, AMERICAN FICTION
Robbie Robertson, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
John Williams, INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

You might think the late Robbie Robertson would be the sentimental favorite for his evocative KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON score.  Sentiment may still will out, but Ludwig Goransson’s equally evocative score for OPPENHEIMER seems more likely to ride the film’s wave.  Unless the Academy recalls they give Goransson a statue a few years back for BLACK PANTHER.

Should Win:    Robbie Robertson, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Will Win:         Ludwig Goransson, OPPENHEIMER (PC 3)

Best Original Song:

“The Fire Inside,” FLAMIN’ HOT
“I’m Just Ken,” BARBIE
“It Never Went Away,” AMERICAN SYMPHONY
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People),” KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
“What Was I Made For?,” BARBIE

It’s inevitable that BARBIE will win in this category.  The power ballad “I’m Just Ken” gets points as an ear worm and for Ryan Gosling’s committed performance.  However, “What Was I Made For?” helped the film stick its landing and deserves the victory here.

Should and Will Win:    “What Was I Made For?”, BARBIE (PC 4)

Best Sound:

THE CREATOR
MAESTRO
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
OPPENHEIMER
THE ZONE OF INTEREST

The subtle and pervasive sound design of THE ZONE OF INTEREST provides much of the film’s corrosive and corrupt atmosphere.  OPPENHEIMER’s sound is also excellent, but haven’t we given this film enough?

Should Win:    THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Will Win:         OPPENHEIMER (PC 3)

Best Visual Effects:

THE CREATOR
GODZILLA MINUS ONE
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
NAPOLEON

Compared to its competitors GODZILLA MINUS ONE’s budget is modest.  And yet the effects literally took my breath away.  Also it’s a terrific movie.  THE CREATOR has a chance to squeak in, but I think the Academy is going to recognize the more-bang-for-the-buck contender here.

Should and Will Win:    GODZILLA MINUS ONE (PC 3)

Best Makeup:

GOLDA
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW

I found MAESTRO’s makeup effects self-conscious.  Whereas POOR THINGS’s makeup worked well in the story.  Still, the Academy will want to give something to MAESTRO, and this is likely it.

Should Win:    POOR THINGS
Will Win:         MAESTRO (PC 3)

Best Documentary Short Subject:

THE ABC’s OF BOOK BANNING
THE BARBER OF LITTLE ROCK
ISLAND IN BETWEEN
THE LAST REPAIR SHOP
NAI NAI & WAI PO

I saw all these shorts.  My favorite was THE LAST REPAIR SHOP, about a musical instrument repair shop for underprivileged Los Angeles Unified School District students.  The likely winner is THE ABC’s OF BOOK BANNING, which is timely and quite upsetting.

Should Win:    THE LAST REPAIR SHOP
Will Win:         THE ABC’s OF BOOK BANNING (PC 3)

Best Animated Short Subject:

LETTER TO A PIG
NINETY-FIVE SENSES
OUR UNIFORM
PACHYDERME
WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO

I saw three of the five, and all had their issues and challenges.  WAR IS OVER!, set in the trenches of World War I, felt a bit too simplistic and idealistic for my taste.  NINETY-FIVE SENSES, about a death row inmate reminiscing about his life, was interesting before it got condescending.  LETTER TO A PIG, about a Holocaust survivor who reads the titular letter to some high school children, is fascinating stylistically but also confusing.  Of those I’d prefer the latter win because its animation was truly experimental.

Should Win:    LETTER TO A PIG
Will Win:         WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO (PC 1)

Best Live Action Short Subject:

THE AFTER
INVINCIBLE
KNIGHT OF FORTUNE
RED, WHITE AND BLUE
THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR

Again I saw three of the five.  THE AFTER is very well acted but far too indulgent.  KNIGHT OF FORTUNE is a slow and odd foreign language film about two men dealing with grief.  THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR, based on Roald Dahl’s story, was written and directed by Wes Anderson, and is a bizarre delight from beginning to end.

Should and Will Win:    THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR (PC 4)

THE POPE'S PICKS AT ON THE PAGE (OSCAR® 2024 PODCAST)

Once again Michael Musa and I join writer Alex Troxel and screenwriting teacher/author Pilar Alessandra at her On the Page podcast to discuss the 2023 Oscar-nominated screenplays.  As always the conversation was lively, helped in no small part by the delicious Manhattans which Michael contributed.  I hope the passionate pitches inspire you to seek out some of these nominated films (and perhaps others that are mentioned) and give them a look.

The podcast may be found via one of the four links below:

http://onthepage.libsyn.com

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-page-screenwriting/id262077408

http://podbay.fm/show/262077408

https://open.spotify.com/show/5gKMISD3ykqglig23RADcq?si=NOe7-E6GR9G7H4jBIbC-8Q

 

Enjoy!

THE LIGHT AT THE END: A 2021 OVERVIEW

When last we spoke COVID-19 vaccines were just being introduced, and the possibility of returning to a more normal life glittered tantalizing at the end of a dark tunnel.  One year later the notion of life going back to the way it was has faded somewhat and the idea of perpetual coping and adjustments has gradually settled in, whether we like it or not.  How can we recover from trauma and grief when we're never sure if the light at the end comes from the sun or another train?

For many, myself included, movies provided essential relief from the isolation of the pandemic’s first year.  Now, as we move into the pandemic’s third year, I find myself expecting more from movies than simply being there.  This year’s crop felt more unsatisfying than last year’s crop.  Perhaps for the reason of higher expectations. Nevertheless, there were several exceptional films and, not surprising, the best of them dealt with characters or communities dealing (or not) with trauma and grief.

Far and away my favorite this year is Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s dreamy and profound DRIVE MY CAR.  Don’t be put off by its three-hour length or the subtitles, this absorbing story about the power of art and storytelling to heal will draw you in and carry you effortlessly to its devastating finale.  Benedict Cumberbatch’s self-loathing cowboy in THE POWER OF THE DOG, Jane Campion’s gorgeous but unsettling western, tries and fails to cope with repressed desires, leading to tragedy.  It may be the year’s most difficult but also one of its most rewarding films.  The year’s most exuberant film is easily Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson’s documentary SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) about the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival, in which a traumatized community copes with the turbulence of the civil rights era through dazzling musical performances.  You could also do worse than Steven Spielberg’s surprisingly fresh take on WEST SIDE STORY and a little film featuring Nicolas Cage and a truffle pig.

Below is a complete list of my favorite films of the past year.  And a handful of stinkers.  I hope you are able to make it back into the movie theaters in the coming year.  I have now seen several on the big screen and must admit I have missed the experience (except for the ads and the endless previews).

Until we speak next year stay safe and hope to see you in real life soon.

Brian Pope
April 4, 2022

******************************************************************************************

THE BEST OF 2021

THE TOP THREE
(in alphabetical order)

DRIVE MY CAR  Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe transform Haruki Murakami’s short story into an epic film about dealing with untenable grief through art, specifically in the rehearsal and production of Anton Chekhov’s play Uncle Vanya.  The film fuses Murakami’s tone with Chekhov’s themes beautifully to create the year’s most moving and powerful meditation on the importance of persistence and the necessity of connection.

THE POWER OF THE DOG Adapter/director Jane Campion’s tragedy of repression in the American West offers stark, beautiful vistas, an unnerving score, and two of the year’s finest performances from Benedict Cumberbatch and Kodi Smit-McPhee.  A harsh yet compassionate, spare yet eloquent critique of the myths of frontier life and an examination of the toxic masculinity embraced by a deeply closeted cowboy.

SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) Overshadowed by Woodstock and the Rolling Stones’ Altamont free concert, the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival vanished from history until Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson assembled this never-before-seen footage with context from the turbulent Civil Rights era and turned it into one of the great concert films.  Highlights include electrifying performances from Stevie Wonder, Nina Simone, and Sly and the Family Stone.

THE BEST OF THE REST OF THE TOP TEN
(in alphabetical order)

FLEE  A touching foreign language animated film that follows a young Afghan refugee on his harrowing journey to Denmark by way of Russia and Estonia.

THE GREEN KNIGHT  Writer/director David Lowry’s stylish retelling of Sir Gawain and the Green Knight manages to make failure heroic.

LICORICE PIZZA Paul Thomas Anderson’s giddy and entertaining tale of the San Fernando Valley set in 1973 features a glorious soundtrack and what should be a star-making turn from a resplendent Alana Haim.

NIGHTMARE ALLEY Bradley Cooper gives one of his best performances in this grim, cynical story of a transient carnival worker turned con artist who falls for a femme fatale in the guise of Cate Blanchette.

PIG Nicolas Cage stars in this unexpectedly moving story of a reclusive truffle hunter and his prize pig, which, thanks to the deft, delicate touch of writer/director Michael Sarnoski, becomes modest movie magic.

WEST SIDE STORY Tony Kushner’s socially relevant adaptation gives Steven Spielberg a good reason to remake this musical chestnut.  Rachel Zegler, David Alvarez and, especially, Ariana DeBose are excellent.

THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (VERDENS VERSTE MENNESKE)  The mercurial Renate Reinsve dominates in Joachim Trier’s exuberant and affecting comedy drama about an elusive free spirit set in modern Oslo.

Honorable Mentions:  BEING THE RICARDOS; THE CARD COUNTER; CODA; THE DRY; KING RICHARD; THE LOST DAUGHTER; THE NIGHT HOUSE; ROADRUNNER: A FILM ABOUT ANTHONY BOURDAIN

 

THE BOTTOM THREE
(in alphabetical order)

DON’T LOOK UP  A dark comedy that fails at every level.  It’s not funny and misses of all its satirical targets. 

HALLOWEEN KILLS  A catastrophically bad sequel to the surprisingly effective 2018 reboot. 

SPENCER  Kristen Stewart can’t save this Princess Diana biopic that feels as if it had been directed by a synthetic life form.

 

THE POPE'S 2021 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

 

Though movie theaters have opened up, it feels even stranger this year to be preparing for the Oscars® than last year in the dark heart of a pandemic.  (Who are we kidding? We’re still in a pandemic, we just have better options.)  Nevertheless, it’s time to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Below are my predictions for the 2021 Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.

 

And the nominees are:

 

Best Picture:

 

BELFAST

CODA

DON’T LOOK UP

DRIVE MY CAR

DUNE

KING RICHARD

LICORICE PIZZA

NIGHTMARE ALLEY

THE POWER OF THE DOG

WEST SIDE STORY

 

Up until the Producers Guild gave its top prize to CODA it was conventional wisdom that THE POWER OF THE DOG would win Best Picture.  Now all that has changed, and CODA is now running neck-in-neck with Jane Campion’s difficult western and will likely win.  Though even that’s less than certain.  In hindsight this switch in favor seems inevitable.  THE POWER OF THE DOG is a brilliant, prickly, challenging picture.  CODA is very much a feel-good/tear-jerking comedy drama with touching performances about the struggles of a hearing child who lives with deaf parents and a deaf brother.  In the end I suspect the Academy® will congratulate itself on rewarding a movie that makes its members feel virtuous in their decision.  This may sound callous but isn’t meant to be.  I like CODA.  It’s a good movie.  I would argue, however, that it’s not a great movie.  And it certainly isn’t the best movie on the list.  That would be DRIVE MY CAR.

 

Should Win:     DRIVE MY CAR

Will Win:          CODA (PCI 2)

 

Best Director:

 

Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST

Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, DRIVE MY CAR

Steven Spielberg, WEST SIDE STORY

 

Because CODA’s director Sian Heder was not nominated in this category, the Academy® will reward Jane Campion here.  And, frankly, she deserves it.  The film’s pace and tone is a singular, visionary feat.  If there were to be an upset it would likely be Kenneth Branagh for BELFAST (the least deserving nominee in this category) or Steven Spielberg for WEST SIDE STORY (unlikely).

 

Should and Will Win:   Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    David Lowery, THE GREEN KNIGHT

 

Best Actress:

 

Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE

Olivia Colman, THE LOST DAUGHTER

Penelope Cruz, PARALLEL MOTHERS

Nicole Kidman, BEING THE RICARDOS

Kristen Stewart, SPENCER

 

There are decent arguments to be made for any of the actresses in this category.  The always underrated Kristen Stewart is quite good in the bad SPENCER. Nicole Kidman mostly succeeds as Lucille Ball in BEING THE RICARDOS, but the performance feels less than Oscar® worthy.  I’ve heard great things about Penelope Cruz in PARALLEL MOTHERS but haven’t yet seen it.  The most likely winners, Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE and Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER, deliver top grade work.  Chastain is overdue, so I will give it to her this year.  I think the Academy® will too.

 

Should and Will Win:   Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (PCI 4)

Overlooked:              Renate Reinsve, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

 

Best Actor:

 

Javier Bardem, BEING THE RICARDOS

Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Andrew Garfield, TICK, TICK… BOOM!

Will Smith, KING RICHARD

Denzel Washington, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

 

There is really no question as to who should win in this category.  Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG delivers -- fearlessly.  But this will be Will Smith’s year.  He’s as good as he’s ever been in KING RICHARD, but his performance lacks the range and ruthlessness of Cumberbatch’s.  Still you can’t fault the Academy®.  And if you want to win your Oscar® pool, failing to choose Smith could be fatal.

 

Should Win:     Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Will Smith, KING RICHARD (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Hidetoshi Nishijima, DRIVE MY CAR

 

Best Supporting Actress:

 

Jessie Buckley, THE LOST DAUGHTER

Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY

Judi Dench, BELFAST

Kirsten Dunst, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD

 

I was happy to see Aunjanue Ellis get recognized for her exceptional support in KING RICHARD.  Likewise, Jessie Buckley paired beautifully with Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER.  Kirsten Dunst held her own and then some against Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG.  And Judi Dench got nominated (again!) for a role that felt insubstantial in BELFAST.  I have to go with Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE STORY.  She’s a true triple threat, and she will take home gold.

 

Should and Will Win:   Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY (PCI 5)

Overlooked:    Toko Miura, DRIVE MY CAR

 

Best Supporting Actor:

 

Ciaran Hinds, BELFAST

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, THE POWER OF THE DOG

J.K. Simmons, BEING THE RICARDOS

Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG

 

Much like the best actor category, one performance towers above the others but will not win.  That belongs to Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG.  His was so subtle I wanted to re-watch the film after it ended to see how he (and writer/director Jane Campion) pulled the twist ending off.  However, Troy Kotsur will win for his funny and heartbreaking role as a deaf father trying to do right by his hearing daughter in CODA.  No complaints.  Apples and oranges.  Sinewy versus blunt.  It’s a shame both can’t win.  Well, I suppose they could, but that seems unlikely.

 

Should Win:     Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Troy Kosur, CODA (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Anders Danielsen Lie, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

 

Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Maggie Gyllenhaal, THE LOST DAUGHTER

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, DRIVE MY CAR

Sian Heder, CODA

Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, DUNE

 

Here we go again.  Up until the WGA gave CODA its nod for best adapted screenplay, THE POWER OF THE DOG was the frontrunner.  Jane Campion was not nominated (or eligible) for the WGA award for jurisdictional reasons, but I believe, for similar reasons as discussed in Best Picture category, that the Academy® will give the award to writer/director Sian Heder.  In my prediction universe they already gave the directing award to Campion, so they’ll share the love.  I would recognize Campion before Heder, but Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamas Oe deserve the award for DRIVE MY CAR, the expansive and powerful adaptation of the Haruki Murakami short story.  For a more detailed discussion of the adapted screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.

 

Should Win:     Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, DRIVE MY CAR

Will Win:          Sian Heder, CODA (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    David Lowery, THE GREEN KNIGHT

 

Best Original Screenplay:

 

Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

Zach Baylin, KING RICHARD

Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST

Adam McKay, David Sirota, DON'T LOOK UP

Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

 

DON’T LOOK UP won the WGA’s original screenplay, and I suspect it’s more for being an allegory for the climate disaster than for any skill in tone or storytelling.  I did not like it, so I may have a blind side here when I suggest that Paul Thomas Anderson could win for his rollicking LICORICE PIZZA.  There’s a better chance that Kenneth Branagh will win for his memoir BELFAST, which the Academy® could reward here, thus preventing it from otherwise getting shut out.  All that said, I would pick Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier’s breezy yet insightful and moving THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD as my favorite nominated original script.  For a more detailed discussion of the original screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.

 

Should Win:     Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, THE WORST PERSON IN THE

                                                                    WORLD

Will Win:          Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    Michael Sarnoski, Vanessa Block, PIG

 

Best Animated Film

 

ENCANTO

FLEE

LUCA

THE MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES

RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON

 

I was not able to see THE MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES, and I’ve heard good things.  Of the others my hands down choice would be FLEE, an animated documentary about the trials of an Afghan refugee, that surprised and moved me more than any of the others.  The prize will go to ENCANTO, which, like the remaining choices, suffers from middlebrow choices and cloying uplift rather than true emotional insight.

 

Should Win:     FLEE

Will Win:          ENCANTO (PCI 3)

 

Best International Film

 

DRIVE MY CAR (Japan)

FLEE (Denmark)

THE HAND OF GOD (Italy)

LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM (Bhutan)

THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (Norway)

 

I did not see LUNANA, and THE HAND OF GOD was a bit of a mess.  FLEE and THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD are exceptional films and have the potential to win in any year in which they’re not competing against DRIVE MY CAR.  Unfortunately for them, they are.

 

Should and Will Win:   DRIVE MY CAR (PCI 5)

 

Best Documentary Feature

 

ASCENSION

ATTICA

FLEE

SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)

WRITING WITH FIRE

 

Of the nominated films I was only able to see FLEE and SUMMER OF SOUL.  I have heard exceptional things about ATTICA.  It would be hard for me to pick a favorite of the two I have seen, but since I already lauded FLEE, I’m going to go with SUMMER OF SOUL.  Which will also win.

 

Should and Will Win:   SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) (PCI 4)

 

Best Cinematography

 

Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Greig Fraser, DUNE

Janusz Kaminski, WEST SIDE STORY

Dan Laustsen, NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Ari Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG

 

The nominees in this category are uniformly excellent and quite varied in look.  Grieg Fraser will likely win for DUNE, but my personal favorite is Ari Wegner’s work in THE POWER OF THE DOG.

 

Should Win:     Ari Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Greig Fraser, DUNE (PC 3)

 

Best Film Editing

 

Hank Corwin, DON’T LOOK UP

Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum, TICK, TICK… BOOM!

Pamela Martin, KING RICHARD

Peter Sciberras, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Joe Walker, DUNE

 

DUNE will be cleaning up in most of the technical categories, and Joe Walker is favored to win.  I find that disappointing, since the film’s pace was uninvolving and too slow (especially for a science fiction epic).  Peter Sciberras’s pace in THE POWER OF THE DOG is also slow but better suits the material.  It deserves the prize.

 

Should Win:     Peter Sciberras, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Joe Walker, DUNE (PC 3)

 

Best Costume Design

 

Jenny Beavan, CRUELLA

Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran, CYRANO

Luis Sequeira, NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Paul Tazewell, WEST SIDE STORY

Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan, DUNE

 

Jenny Beavan will likely win for CRUELLA, but I’d much prefer Paul Tazewell receive the nod for WEST SIDE STORY.

 

Should Win:     Paul Tazewell, WEST SIDE STORY

Will Win:          Jenny Beavan, CRUELLA (PC 3)

 

Best Production Design

 

DUNE

NIGHTMARE ALLEY

THE POWER OF THE DOG

THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

WEST SIDE STORY

 

DUNE will continue its near sweep of the technical awards.  Its world building is impressive, but a better choice would be NIGHTMARE ALLEY.  Its production design oozes despair and paranoia.

 

Should Win:     NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Will Win:          DUNE (PC 4)

 

Best Original Score

 

Nicholas Britell, DON’T LOOK UP

Germaine Franco, ENCANTO

Jonny Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Alberto Iglesias, PARALLEL MOTHERS

Hans Zimmer, DUNE

 

I know many folks who rave about Hans Zimmer’s score for DUNE.  I felt like I’d heard it before, but I’m in the minority.  Jonny Greenwood’s disturbing score for THE POWER OF THE DOG sounds like an organic part of the landscape.

 

Should Win:     Jonny Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          Hans Zimmer, DUNE (PC 3)

 

Best Original Song

 

“Be Alive,” KING RICHARD

“Dos Oruguitas,” ENCANTO

“Down to Joy,” BELFAST

“No Time to Die,” NO TIME TO DIE

“Somehow You Do,” FOUR GOOD DAYS

 

I saw four of the nominated movies, but I only recall the nominated song from “No Time to Die,” because, well, it’s the title track.  I think it will win, though “Dos Oruguitas” from ENCANTO may squeak out a victory.

 

Should and Will Win:   “No Time to Die,” NO TIME TO DIE (PC 2)

 

Best Sound

 

BELFAST

DUNE

NO TIME TO DIE

THE POWER OF THE DOG

WEST SIDE STORY

 

Normally I would predict the musical (if there is one) to win in this category. However, since they merged Sound Mixing and Sound Editing into Best Sound, that formula is less reliable.  Once more DUNE is the likely winner, but THE POWER OF THE DOG’s was a more spare, provocative soundscape.

 

Should Win:     THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will Win:          DUNE (PC 4)

 

Best Visual Effects

 

DUNE

FREE GUY

NO TIME TO DIE

SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME

 

Finally, DUNE wins an award I think it deserves.

 

Should and Will Win:   DUNE (PC 4)

 

Best Makeup

 

COMING 2 AMERICA

CRUELLA

DUNE

HOUSE OF GUCCI

THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE

 

HOUSE OF GUCCI was nominated for Jared Leto’s stunt appearance.  Ridiculous and pointless.  Tammy Faye Baker was known for her makeup, and THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE takes her and her makeup seriously.

 

Should and Will Win:   THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (PC 4)

 

Best Documentary Short Subject

 

AUDIBLE

LEAD ME HOME

THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL

THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR

WHEN WE WERE BULLIES

 

A wild guess.

 

Will Win:          THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL (PC 3)

 

Best Animated Short Subject

 

AFFAIRS OF THE ART

BESTIA

BOXBALLET

ROBIN ROBIN

THE WINDSHIELD WIPER

 

Another wild guess.

 

Will Win:          ROBIN ROBIN (PC 2)

 

Best Live Action Short Subject

 

ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN

THE DRESS

THE LONG GOODBYE

ON MY MIND

PLEASE HOLD

 

One last wild guess.

 

Will Win:          THE LONG GOODBYE (PC 3)