Another Oscar® broadcast is barreling down upon us, so get out your pencils as we match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This year has a number of categories which feel inevitable, yet several major categories are surprisingly competitive. I’ll do my best to provide guidance to help you with your Oscars® pool.
Note the ceremony is being broadcast one hour earlier this year at 4:00 PDT.
Below are my predictions for this year’s Oscars®. To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5. 1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.
And the nominees are:
Best Picture:
AMERICAN FICTION
ANATOMY OF A FALL
BARBIE
THE HOLDOVERS
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
PAST LIVES
POOR THINGS
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
I am very confident OPPENHEIMER will win Best Picture this year. It checks all the Academy’s boxes. Expansive in scope and ideas. Every element exceptional. That said, due to ranked choice voting in this category, there is a remote chance the film with the second most 1st Place votes sneaks in for a win. We saw it with SPOTLIGHT in 2015 (edging out THE REVENANT). We saw it with MOONLIGHT in 2016 (edging out LA LA LAND). Though a long shot here, keep your eye on THE HOLDOVERS. In any other year (in the 1970s especially) this heartfelt dramedy would have cleaned up. Another possibility is POOR THINGS, an outrageous comedy from Greek provocateur Yorgos Lanthimos. While it has a chance to win technical awards and possibly Emma Stone’s second Oscar®, it may be too “out there” even for the most open minded Academy voters. Though KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON shouldn’t be dismissed, my sense is that a possible nod for Lily Gladstone’s anchoring performance may be its best shot. I would love to see ANATOMY OF A FALL win. Like OPPENHEIMER it has a lot on its mind, but its scope is intimate and interior, with powerhouse performances. It has a chance in the Original Screenplay category, but Best Picture seems like a real long shot.
Should Win: ANATOMY OF A FALL
Will Win: OPPENHEIMER (PCI 4)
Overlooked: MAY DECEMBER
Best Director:
Jonathan Glazer, THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Yorgos Lanthimos, POOR THINGS
Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER
Martin Scorsese, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Justine Triet, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Despite the Best Director category being stacked with exceptional directors and exceptional films, Christopher Nolan’s victory for OPPENHEIMER is pretty much a given. It’s a shame the Academy can’t give statues to them all.
Should Win: Justine Triet, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Will Win: Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER (PCI 5)
Overlooked: Greta Gerwig, BARBIE
Best Actress:
Annette Bening, NYAD
Lily Gladstone, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Sandra Huller, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Carey Mulligan, MAESTRO
Emma Stone, POOR THINGS
And so we come to the first toss-up category — Best Actress. There isn’t a subpar performance in the bunch, but the Oscar® will likely go to either Lily Gladstone for KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON or Emma Stone for POOR THINGS. Pros for Gladstone: (a) She’s the first Native American nominated in this category; and (b) Her role is the center of gravity for the film. Con for Gladstone: Her performance is subtle. Pro for Stone: Hers is a showpiece role with lots of juicy comedy and wild behavior. Con for Stone: She already won Best Actress for LA LA LAND in 2016. If you want to go the way of the contrarian, I’d recommend picking Sandra Huller (my favorite) for ANATOMY OF A FALL. If Gladstone and Stone were to split the vote, the most likely benefactor would be Huller.
Should Win: Sandra Huller, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Will Win: Lily Gladstone, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (PCI 1)
Overlooked: Margot Robbie, BARBIE
Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper, MAESTRO
Colman Domingo, RUSTIN
Paul Giamatti, THE HOLDOVERS
Cillian Murphy, OPPENHEIMER
Jeffrey Wright, AMERICAN FICTION
With barely a breath we land on the second toss-up category — Best Actor. In this instance the award will likely go to either Cillian Murphy for OPPENHEIMER or Paul Giamatti for THE HOLDOVERS. Giamatti was overlooked for exceptional performances in SIDEWAYS and AMERICAN SPLENDOR. The Academy may decide it’s time to remedy those oversights. Murphy carries the year’s most lauded film on his narrow shoulders. He may ride OPPENHEIMER’s deserving coattails to victory. Contrarians hoping for a split vote between Giamatti and Murphy would do well to consider Jeffrey Wright in AMERICAN FICTION, a consistently terrific actor finally getting a role worthy of his talent.
Should Win: Paul Giamatti, THE HOLDOVERS
Will Win: Cillian Murphy, OPPENHEIMER (PCI 2)
Overlooked: Leonardo DiCaprio, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Best Supporting Actress:
Emily Blunt, OPPENHEIMER
Danielle Brooks, THE COLOR PURPLE
America Ferrera, BARBIE
Jodie Foster, NYAD
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, THE HOLDOVERS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph will win for THE HOLDOVERS. Hers is a note-perfect performance. Emily Blunt stands out in a male-dominated cast in OPPENHEIMER, Danielle Brooks steals the show in THE COLOR PURPLE, America Ferrara is grounding as a struggling single mom in BARBIE, and Jodie Foster is terrific in the underrated NYAD. As remarkable as these other nominees are, this will not be their year.
Should and Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (PCI 5)
Overlooked: Julianne Moore, MAY SEPTEMBER
Rachel McAdams, ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME,
MARGARET.
Best Supporting Actor:
Sterling K. Brown, AMERICAN FICTION
Robert De Niro, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Robert Downey Jr., OPPENHEIMER
Ryan Gosling, BARBIE
Mark Ruffalo, POOR THINGS
Another category with an abundance of riches. Sterling K. Brown is as funny as he’s ever been in AMERICAN FICTION, Mark Ruffalo plays the ultimate cad to whiny perfection in POOR THINGS, and Robert De Niro gives his finest performance in over a decade in KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON. But the contest, such as it is, will be between Ryan Gosling as the guileless Ken in BARBIE and Robert Downey, Jr. as the shifty, spiteful Lewis Strauss in OPPENHEIMER. My money is on Downey, Jr., but I will root for Gosling. His performance was Kenough.
Should Win: Ryan Gosling, BARBIE
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., OPPENHEIMER (PCI 4)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, BARBIE
Jonathan Glazer, THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Cord Jefferson, AMERICAN FICTION
Tony McNamara, POOR THINGS
Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER
Jonathan Glazer’s THE ZONE OF INTEREST, about the “bucolic” life of a Nazi family living in the literal shadow of Auschwitz, is an important film and worth seeing. It’s a tough sell for a win though. Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach’s delightful BARBIE is uneven at times but sticks the landing. I suspect it will have to settle for all the money it’s made. As terrific and worthy as Tony McNamara’s POOR THINGS is, I suspect it’s glorious strangeness will prevent it from winning here (see above). If OPPENHEIMER is the Oscar® juggernaut it appears to be, Christopher Nolan will take home his third statue. However, I’m thinking now (thanks to Pilar Alessandra for prompting this thought, and for pointing out that Nolan’s script benefited from exceptional work by the film editor) that the film’s overall success may handicap it in this category, opening the door for Cord Jefferson’s sharply observed AMERICAN FICTION. A risky choice, but let’s go for it. For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Adapted Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2024 podcast. It’s not often that our discussion alters my opinion, but as you will note this year in this category, it did.
Should and Will Win: Cord Jefferson, AMERICAN FICTION (PCI 1)
Overlooked: Kelly Fremon Craig, ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME,
MARGARET.
Best Original Screenplay:
Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, MAY DECEMBER
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, MAESTRO
David Hemingson, THE HOLDOVERS
Celine Song, PAST LIVES
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer’s MAESTRO, about the life of American composer Leonard Bernstein, suffers from too many biopic problems to be in serious contention. Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik’s MAY DECEMBER, with its blend of domestic melodrama and Hollywood tabloid, has an unusual tone and sordid subject matter which may ultimately turn voters off. The remaining three choices are unimpeachable. Celine Song’s gentle and probing PAST LIVES, explores choices imposed and made, with an ending that quietly devastates. David Hemingson’s THE HOLDOVERS, set in a prep school over winter break, throws together prickly characters each in existential crisis and comes away with a heartwarming comedy-drama short on sentiment and long on humanity. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s absorbing and suspenseful mystery ANATOMY OF A FALL follows the trial of a wife suspected of pushing her husband to his death out a window. Though these last three are all exceptional, the latter is my favorite with its refusal to spoon-feed us a pat solution. For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Original Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2024 podcast.
Should and Will Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, ANATOMY OF A FALL (PCI 2)
Overlooked: Nicole Holofcener, YOU HURT MY FEELINGS
Best Animated Film:
THE BOY AND THE HERON
ELEMENTAL
NIMONA
ROBOT DREAMS
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
Will THE BOY AND THE HERON be Hayao Miyazaki’s last film? It’s rumored to be and, from what I hear, it’s beautiful. This could tip the Academy into voting his way. Otherwise the likely winner is the ambitious, exciting sequel SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE. I did see this and can confirm it’s marvelous. I’ll go with the devil I know.
Should and Will Win: SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (PCI 3)
Best International Feature:
IO CAPITANO (Italy)
PERFECT DAYS (Japan)
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW (Spain)
THE TEACHER’S LOUNGE (Germany)
THE ZONE OF INTEREST (United Kingdom)
THE ZONE OF INTEREST is the only film in this category nominated for Best Picture and other awards. It would be astonishing if it didn’t win here. It’s also the only one I saw, and it is unforgettable.
Should and Will Win: THE ZONE OF INTEREST (PCI 5)
Best Documentary Feature:
BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT
THE ETERNAL MEMORY
FOUR DAUGHTERS
TO KILL A TIGER
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL
The only nominee I saw was BOBI WINE, about a musician running a populist presidential campaign in Uganda against long odds and a corrupt opponent. Not a feel good movie, but an inspirational one. 20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL deals with the Ukrainian war and is the most likely winner, but FOUR DAUGHTERS could sneak in a victory.
Will Win: 20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL (PCI 3)
Best Cinematography:
Edward Lachman, EL CONDE
Matthew Libatique, MAESTRO
Rodrigo Prieto, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Robbie Ryan, POOR THINGS
Hoyte Van Hoytema, OPPENHEIMER
I saw every nominee but for EL CONDE. A very strong category. I lean towards OPPENHEIMER not the least because the film is the frontrunner for Best Picture. Other possible upset winners would be POOR THINGS or KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON.
Should and Will Win: Hoyte Van Hoytema, OPPENHEIMER (PC 4)
Best Film Editing:
Jennifer Lame, OPPENHEIMER
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, POOR THINGS
Thelma Schoonmaker, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Laurent Senechal, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Kevin Tent, THE HOLDOVERS
OPPENHEIMER is far and away the best edited film of the year. In any other year, ANATOMY OF A FALL might have won, but this is not any other year.
Should and Will Win: Jennifer Lame, OPPENHEIMER (PC 4)
Best Costume Design:
Jacqueline Durran, BARBIE
Ellen Mirojnick, OPPENHEIMER
Holly Waddington, POOR THINGS
Jacqueline West, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Janty Yates & David Crossman, NAPOLEON
Here’s my thinking. Because I suspect POOR THINGS will lose out in the Best Actress category, the Academy will be looking for a technical award to give it. I’m guessing either Costume Design or Production Design. But which? Maybe both? I thought POOR THINGS’s costumes were superior but was leaning toward BARBIE for this one. Now I think POOR THINGS.
Should and Will Win: Holly Waddington, POOR THINGS (PC 1)
Best Production Design:
BARBIE
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
NAPOLEON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
I’m going to predict POOR THINGS winning here for its delirious steampunk look (following my reasoning above). Still BARBIE has a legitimate chance here too. No choice but to commit.
Should and Will Win: POOR THINGS (PC 2)
Best Original Score:
Jerkin Fendrix, POOR THINGS
Ludwig Goransson, OPPENHEIMER
Laura Karpman, AMERICAN FICTION
Robbie Robertson, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
John Williams, INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY
You might think the late Robbie Robertson would be the sentimental favorite for his evocative KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON score. Sentiment may still will out, but Ludwig Goransson’s equally evocative score for OPPENHEIMER seems more likely to ride the film’s wave. Unless the Academy recalls they give Goransson a statue a few years back for BLACK PANTHER.
Should Win: Robbie Robertson, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Will Win: Ludwig Goransson, OPPENHEIMER (PC 3)
Best Original Song:
“The Fire Inside,” FLAMIN’ HOT
“I’m Just Ken,” BARBIE
“It Never Went Away,” AMERICAN SYMPHONY
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People),” KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
“What Was I Made For?,” BARBIE
It’s inevitable that BARBIE will win in this category. The power ballad “I’m Just Ken” gets points as an ear worm and for Ryan Gosling’s committed performance. However, “What Was I Made For?” helped the film stick its landing and deserves the victory here.
Should and Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”, BARBIE (PC 4)
Best Sound:
THE CREATOR
MAESTRO
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
OPPENHEIMER
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
The subtle and pervasive sound design of THE ZONE OF INTEREST provides much of the film’s corrosive and corrupt atmosphere. OPPENHEIMER’s sound is also excellent, but haven’t we given this film enough?
Should Win: THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Will Win: OPPENHEIMER (PC 3)
Best Visual Effects:
THE CREATOR
GODZILLA MINUS ONE
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
NAPOLEON
Compared to its competitors GODZILLA MINUS ONE’s budget is modest. And yet the effects literally took my breath away. Also it’s a terrific movie. THE CREATOR has a chance to squeak in, but I think the Academy is going to recognize the more-bang-for-the-buck contender here.
Should and Will Win: GODZILLA MINUS ONE (PC 3)
Best Makeup:
GOLDA
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW
I found MAESTRO’s makeup effects self-conscious. Whereas POOR THINGS’s makeup worked well in the story. Still, the Academy will want to give something to MAESTRO, and this is likely it.
Should Win: POOR THINGS
Will Win: MAESTRO (PC 3)
Best Documentary Short Subject:
THE ABC’s OF BOOK BANNING
THE BARBER OF LITTLE ROCK
ISLAND IN BETWEEN
THE LAST REPAIR SHOP
NAI NAI & WAI PO
I saw all these shorts. My favorite was THE LAST REPAIR SHOP, about a musical instrument repair shop for underprivileged Los Angeles Unified School District students. The likely winner is THE ABC’s OF BOOK BANNING, which is timely and quite upsetting.
Should Win: THE LAST REPAIR SHOP
Will Win: THE ABC’s OF BOOK BANNING (PC 3)
Best Animated Short Subject:
LETTER TO A PIG
NINETY-FIVE SENSES
OUR UNIFORM
PACHYDERME
WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO
I saw three of the five, and all had their issues and challenges. WAR IS OVER!, set in the trenches of World War I, felt a bit too simplistic and idealistic for my taste. NINETY-FIVE SENSES, about a death row inmate reminiscing about his life, was interesting before it got condescending. LETTER TO A PIG, about a Holocaust survivor who reads the titular letter to some high school children, is fascinating stylistically but also confusing. Of those I’d prefer the latter win because its animation was truly experimental.
Should Win: LETTER TO A PIG
Will Win: WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO (PC 1)
Best Live Action Short Subject:
THE AFTER
INVINCIBLE
KNIGHT OF FORTUNE
RED, WHITE AND BLUE
THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR
Again I saw three of the five. THE AFTER is very well acted but far too indulgent. KNIGHT OF FORTUNE is a slow and odd foreign language film about two men dealing with grief. THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR, based on Roald Dahl’s story, was written and directed by Wes Anderson, and is a bizarre delight from beginning to end.
Should and Will Win: THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR (PC 4)
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