Though movie theaters
have opened up, it feels even stranger this year to be preparing for the
Oscars® than last year in the dark heart of a pandemic. (Who are we kidding? We’re still in a
pandemic, we just have better options.)
Nevertheless, it’s time to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture
Arts and Sciences. Below are my
predictions for the 2021 Oscars®. To
assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction
Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.
1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident,
5=All but certain.
And the nominees are:
Best Picture:
BELFAST
CODA
DON’T LOOK UP
DRIVE MY CAR
DUNE
KING RICHARD
LICORICE PIZZA
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE POWER OF THE DOG
WEST SIDE STORY
Up until the Producers
Guild gave its top prize to CODA it was conventional wisdom that THE POWER OF
THE DOG would win Best Picture. Now all
that has changed, and CODA is now running neck-in-neck with Jane Campion’s
difficult western and will likely win.
Though even that’s less than certain.
In hindsight this switch in favor seems inevitable. THE POWER OF THE DOG is a brilliant, prickly,
challenging picture. CODA is very much a
feel-good/tear-jerking comedy drama with touching performances about the
struggles of a hearing child who lives with deaf parents and a deaf brother. In the end I suspect the Academy® will
congratulate itself on rewarding a movie that makes its members feel virtuous
in their decision. This may sound
callous but isn’t meant to be. I like
CODA. It’s a good movie. I would argue, however, that it’s not a great
movie. And it certainly isn’t the best
movie on the list. That would be DRIVE
MY CAR.
Should Win: DRIVE MY CAR
Will Win: CODA (PCI 2)
Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson,
LICORICE PIZZA
Kenneth Branagh,
BELFAST
Jane Campion, THE POWER
OF THE DOG
Ryusuke Hamaguchi,
DRIVE MY CAR
Steven Spielberg, WEST
SIDE STORY
Because CODA’s director
Sian Heder was not nominated in this category, the Academy® will reward Jane
Campion here. And, frankly, she deserves
it. The film’s pace and tone is a
singular, visionary feat. If there were
to be an upset it would likely be Kenneth Branagh for BELFAST (the least
deserving nominee in this category) or Steven Spielberg for WEST SIDE STORY
(unlikely).
Should and Will Win: Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG (PCI 3)
Overlooked: David Lowery, THE GREEN KNIGHT
Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain, THE
EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Olivia Colman, THE LOST
DAUGHTER
Penelope Cruz, PARALLEL
MOTHERS
Nicole Kidman, BEING
THE RICARDOS
Kristen Stewart,
SPENCER
There are decent arguments
to be made for any of the actresses in this category. The always underrated Kristen Stewart is
quite good in the bad SPENCER. Nicole Kidman mostly succeeds as Lucille Ball in
BEING THE RICARDOS, but the performance feels less than Oscar® worthy. I’ve heard great things about Penelope Cruz
in PARALLEL MOTHERS but haven’t yet seen it.
The most likely winners, Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE and
Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER, deliver top grade work. Chastain is overdue, so I will give it to her
this year. I think the Academy® will
too.
Should and Will Win: Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (PCI
4)
Overlooked: Renate
Reinsve, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Best Actor:
Javier Bardem, BEING
THE RICARDOS
Benedict Cumberbatch,
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Andrew Garfield, TICK,
TICK… BOOM!
Will Smith, KING
RICHARD
Denzel Washington, THE
TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
There is really no
question as to who should win in this category.
Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG delivers -- fearlessly. But this will be Will Smith’s year. He’s as good as he’s ever been in KING
RICHARD, but his performance lacks the range and ruthlessness of Cumberbatch’s. Still you can’t fault the Academy®. And if you want to win your Oscar® pool,
failing to choose Smith could be fatal.
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will Win: Will Smith, KING RICHARD (PCI 5)
Overlooked: Hidetoshi Nishijima, DRIVE MY CAR
Best Supporting Actress:
Jessie Buckley, THE
LOST DAUGHTER
Ariana DeBose, WEST
SIDE STORY
Judi Dench, BELFAST
Kirsten Dunst, THE
POWER OF THE DOG
Aunjanue Ellis, KING
RICHARD
I was happy to see
Aunjanue Ellis get recognized for her exceptional support in KING RICHARD. Likewise, Jessie Buckley paired beautifully
with Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER.
Kirsten Dunst held her own and then some against Cumberbatch and
Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG. And
Judi Dench got nominated (again!) for a role that felt insubstantial in BELFAST. I have to go with Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE
STORY. She’s a true triple threat, and
she will take home gold.
Should and Will Win: Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY (PCI 5)
Overlooked: Toko Miura, DRIVE MY CAR
Best Supporting Actor:
Ciaran Hinds, BELFAST
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, THE
POWER OF THE DOG
J.K. Simmons, BEING THE
RICARDOS
Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE
POWER OF THE DOG
Much like the best
actor category, one performance towers above the others but will not win. That belongs to Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER
OF THE DOG. His was so subtle I wanted
to re-watch the film after it ended to see how he (and writer/director Jane
Campion) pulled the twist ending off. However,
Troy Kotsur will win for his funny and heartbreaking role as a deaf father
trying to do right by his hearing daughter in CODA. No complaints. Apples and oranges. Sinewy versus blunt. It’s a shame both can’t win. Well, I suppose they could, but that seems
unlikely.
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will Win: Troy Kosur, CODA (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Anders Danielsen Lie, THE WORST PERSON IN
THE WORLD
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Jane Campion, THE POWER
OF THE DOG
Maggie Gyllenhaal, THE
LOST DAUGHTER
Ryusuke
Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, DRIVE MY CAR
Sian Heder,
CODA
Jon
Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, DUNE
Here we go again.
Up until the WGA gave CODA its nod for best adapted screenplay, THE
POWER OF THE DOG was the frontrunner.
Jane Campion was not nominated (or eligible) for the WGA award for
jurisdictional reasons, but I believe, for similar reasons as discussed in Best
Picture category, that the Academy® will give
the award to writer/director Sian Heder.
In my prediction universe they already gave the directing award to
Campion, so they’ll share the love. I
would recognize Campion before Heder, but Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamas Oe
deserve the award for DRIVE MY CAR, the expansive and powerful adaptation of
the Haruki Murakami short story. For a more detailed discussion of
the adapted screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE
podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster
Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.
Should
Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe,
DRIVE MY CAR
Will
Win: Sian Heder, CODA (PCI 2)
Overlooked: David Lowery, THE GREEN KNIGHT
Best
Original Screenplay:
Paul Thomas
Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA
Zach
Baylin, KING RICHARD
Kenneth
Branagh, BELFAST
Adam McKay,
David Sirota, DON'T LOOK UP
Eskil Vogt,
Joachim Trier, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
DON’T
LOOK UP won the WGA’s original screenplay, and I suspect it’s more for being an
allegory for the climate disaster than for any skill in tone or storytelling.
I did not like it, so I may have a blind side here when I suggest that Paul
Thomas Anderson could win for his rollicking LICORICE PIZZA. There’s a better chance that Kenneth Branagh
will win for his memoir BELFAST, which the Academy® could reward here, thus
preventing it from otherwise getting shut out.
All that said, I would pick Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier’s breezy yet
insightful and moving THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD as my favorite nominated
original script. For a more detailed
discussion of the original screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON
THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and
podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.
Should
Win: Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, THE
WORST PERSON IN THE
WORLD
Will
Win: Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST
(PCI 2)
Overlooked: Michael Sarnoski, Vanessa Block, PIG
Best
Animated Film
ENCANTO
FLEE
LUCA
THE
MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES
RAYA
AND THE LAST DRAGON
I
was not able to see THE MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES, and I’ve heard good things. Of the others my hands down choice would be
FLEE, an animated documentary about the trials of an Afghan refugee, that
surprised and moved me more than any of the others. The prize will go to ENCANTO, which, like the
remaining choices, suffers from middlebrow choices and cloying uplift rather
than true emotional insight.
Should
Win: FLEE
Will
Win: ENCANTO (PCI 3)
Best
International Film
DRIVE
MY CAR (Japan)
FLEE
(Denmark)
THE
HAND OF GOD (Italy)
LUNANA:
A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM (Bhutan)
THE
WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (Norway)
I
did not see LUNANA, and THE HAND OF GOD was a bit of a mess. FLEE and THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD are
exceptional films and have the potential to win in any year in which they’re
not competing against DRIVE MY CAR.
Unfortunately for them, they are.
Should
and Will Win: DRIVE MY CAR (PCI 5)
Best
Documentary Feature
ASCENSION
ATTICA
FLEE
SUMMER
OF SOUL (OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)
WRITING
WITH FIRE
Of
the nominated films I was only able to see FLEE and SUMMER OF SOUL. I have heard exceptional things about
ATTICA. It would be hard for me to pick
a favorite of the two I have seen, but since I already lauded FLEE, I’m going
to go with SUMMER OF SOUL. Which will
also win.
Should
and Will Win: SUMMER OF SOUL (OR, WHEN
THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) (PCI 4)
Best
Cinematography
Bruno
Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Greig
Fraser, DUNE
Janusz
Kaminski, WEST SIDE STORY
Dan
Laustsen, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Ari
Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG
The
nominees in this category are uniformly excellent and quite varied in
look. Grieg Fraser will likely win for
DUNE, but my personal favorite is Ari Wegner’s work in THE POWER OF THE DOG.
Should
Win: Ari Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will
Win: Greig Fraser, DUNE (PC 3)
Best
Film Editing
Hank
Corwin, DON’T LOOK UP
Myron
Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum, TICK, TICK… BOOM!
Pamela
Martin, KING RICHARD
Peter
Sciberras, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Joe
Walker, DUNE
DUNE
will be cleaning up in most of the technical categories, and Joe Walker is
favored to win. I find that disappointing,
since the film’s pace was uninvolving and too slow (especially for a science
fiction epic). Peter Sciberras’s pace in
THE POWER OF THE DOG is also slow but better suits the material. It deserves the prize.
Should
Win: Peter Sciberras, THE POWER OF THE
DOG
Will
Win: Joe Walker, DUNE (PC 3)
Best
Costume Design
Jenny
Beavan, CRUELLA
Massimo
Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran, CYRANO
Luis
Sequeira, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Paul
Tazewell, WEST SIDE STORY
Jacqueline
West, Robert Morgan, DUNE
Jenny
Beavan will likely win for CRUELLA, but I’d much prefer Paul Tazewell receive
the nod for WEST SIDE STORY.
Should
Win: Paul Tazewell, WEST SIDE STORY
Will
Win: Jenny Beavan, CRUELLA (PC 3)
Best
Production Design
DUNE
NIGHTMARE
ALLEY
THE
POWER OF THE DOG
THE
TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST
SIDE STORY
DUNE
will continue its near sweep of the technical awards. Its world building is impressive, but a
better choice would be NIGHTMARE ALLEY.
Its production design oozes despair and paranoia.
Should
Win: NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Will
Win: DUNE (PC 4)
Best
Original Score
Nicholas
Britell, DON’T LOOK UP
Germaine
Franco, ENCANTO
Jonny
Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Alberto
Iglesias, PARALLEL MOTHERS
Hans
Zimmer, DUNE
I
know many folks who rave about Hans Zimmer’s score for DUNE. I felt like I’d heard it before, but I’m in
the minority. Jonny Greenwood’s
disturbing score for THE POWER OF THE DOG sounds like an organic part of the
landscape.
Should
Win: Jonny Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE
DOG
Will
Win: Hans Zimmer, DUNE (PC 3)
Best
Original Song
“Be
Alive,” KING RICHARD
“Dos
Oruguitas,” ENCANTO
“Down
to Joy,” BELFAST
“No
Time to Die,” NO TIME TO DIE
“Somehow
You Do,” FOUR GOOD DAYS
I
saw four of the nominated movies, but I only recall the nominated song from “No
Time to Die,” because, well, it’s the title track. I think it will win, though “Dos Oruguitas”
from ENCANTO may squeak out a victory.
Should
and Will Win: “No Time to Die,” NO TIME
TO DIE (PC 2)
Best
Sound
BELFAST
DUNE
NO
TIME TO DIE
THE
POWER OF THE DOG
WEST
SIDE STORY
Normally
I would predict the musical (if there is one) to win in this category. However,
since they merged Sound Mixing and Sound Editing into Best Sound, that formula
is less reliable. Once more DUNE is the
likely winner, but THE POWER OF THE DOG’s was a more spare, provocative
soundscape.
Should
Win: THE POWER OF THE DOG
Will
Win: DUNE (PC 4)
Best
Visual Effects
DUNE
FREE
GUY
NO
TIME TO DIE
SHANG-CHI
AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS
SPIDER-MAN:
NO WAY HOME
Finally,
DUNE wins an award I think it deserves.
Should
and Will Win: DUNE (PC 4)
Best
Makeup
COMING
2 AMERICA
CRUELLA
DUNE
HOUSE
OF GUCCI
THE
EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
HOUSE
OF GUCCI was nominated for Jared Leto’s stunt appearance. Ridiculous and pointless. Tammy Faye Baker was known for her makeup,
and THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE takes her and her makeup seriously.
Should
and Will Win: THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE (PC
4)
Best
Documentary Short Subject
AUDIBLE
LEAD
ME HOME
THE
QUEEN OF BASKETBALL
THREE
SONGS FOR BENAZIR
WHEN
WE WERE BULLIES
A
wild guess.
Will
Win: THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL (PC
3)
Best
Animated Short Subject
AFFAIRS
OF THE ART
BESTIA
BOXBALLET
ROBIN
ROBIN
THE
WINDSHIELD WIPER
Another
wild guess.
Will
Win: ROBIN ROBIN (PC 2)
Best
Live Action Short Subject
ALA
KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN
THE
DRESS
THE
LONG GOODBYE
ON
MY MIND
PLEASE
HOLD
One
last wild guess.
Will
Win: THE LONG GOODBYE (PC 3)