THE POPE’S 2020 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

Pandemic or no pandemic, it’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Below are my predictions for the 2020 Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.

 

And the nominees are:

 

Best Picture: 

THE FATHER

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

MANK

MINARI

NOMADLAND

PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

SOUND OF METAL

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

 

In a normal year a Hollywood-centric film like MANK would be the frontrunner.  But this is not a normal year.  One month earlier I would have predicted the heartwarming MINARI the film to beat – it’s certainly one of my favorites.  But as we inch toward the ceremony NOMADLAND and THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 are the films battling for the title.  NOMADLAND won the PGA and DGA awards.  THE CHICAGO 7 won the SAG award.  I would give the edge to NOMADLAND.

 

Should Win:     PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Will Win:         NOMADLAND (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    FIRST COW

MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

 

Best Director:

 

Lee Isaac Chung, MINARI

Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

David Fincher, MANK

Thomas Vinterberg, ANOTHER ROUND

Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND

 

I would argue that Emerald Fennell’s PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN pulled off the most radical and challenging directorial feat of the year.  That said, Chloé Zhao will win for NOMADLAND.  It will be an historic night.

 

Should Win:     Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Will Win:          Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Shaka King, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

                        Kelly Reichardt, FIRST COW

 

Best Actress:

 

Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

Andra Day, THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY

Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN

Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND

Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

 

My two favorite lead actress performances also happen to be the frontrunners.  How nice is that?  I would say that Carey Mulligan has the slight edge, because she has never won an Oscar®.  However, Viola Davis was so powerful (and her previous Oscar® was for a supporting role) the Academy may award her again.  And lest we forget Frances McDormand could ride the NOMADLAND coattails.  I’m going out on a limb and predict Davis.

 

Should Win:     Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Will Win:          Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    Elisabeth Moss, THE INVISIBLE MAN

 

Best Actor:

 

Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL

Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER

Gary Oldman, MANK

Steven Yeun, MINARI

 

This category has uniformly strong contenders, but the winner is as close to a lock as you will find.  Chadwick Boseman will win posthumously and would deserve the award even without factoring in sentiment.  If there is an upset, the recipient would likely be Anthony Hopkins.

 

Should and Will Win:   Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (PCI 4)

Overlooked:    Delroy Lindo, DA 5 BLOODS

John Magaro, FIRST COW

 

Best Supporting Actress:

 

Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

Glenn Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY

Olivia Colman, THE FATHER

Amanda Seyfried, MANK

Yuh-Jung Youn, MINARI

 

Some may think that Glenn Close should win because she was “robbed” of the Best Actress prize two years ago (she wasn’t).  But those who think that probably haven’t seen just how unwatchable HILLBILLY ELEGY is (trust me on this one).  Instead the most deserving Yuh-Jung Youn of MINARI will win.

 

Should and Will Win:   Yuh-Jung Youn, MINARI (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    Olivia Cooke, SOUND OF METAL

 

Best Supporting Actor:

 

Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Leslie Odom Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…

Paul Raci, SOUND OF METAL

LaKeith Stanfield, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

 

Kaluuya and Stanfield have each been nominated as a supporting actor for JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH.  I would argue that Stanfield is the lead.  This could split the vote, which could mean a loss for frontrunner Kaluuya.  I don’t think that will happen.  However, if it does the most likely beneficiary would be Sacha Baron Cohen.  Paul Raci could also be a surprise winner in that scenario.

 

Should and Will Win:  Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH (PCI 3)

Overlooked:    Bo Burnham, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

 

Ramin Bahrani, THE WHITE TIGER

Cohen, Hines, Swimer, Baynham, Rivinoja, Mazer, Friedman, Kern, Pedrad, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, THE FATHER

Kemp Powers, ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…

Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND

 

BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM won the WGA adapted screenplay award this year.  That said, neither THE FATHER nor NOMADLAND were eligible for that award, but I think the Academy will chose one of them.  I would prefer THE FATHER, but NOMADLAND has strong coattails.  I’m predicting a surprise here with THE FATHER winning the Oscar®.  For a more detailed discussion of the adapted screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.

 

Should and Will Win:   Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, THE FATHER (PCI 1)

Overlooked:    Jon Raymond & Kelly Reichardt, FIRST COW

                        Ruben Santiago-Hudson, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

 

Best Original Screenplay:

 

Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Lee Isaac Chung, MINARI

Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, Derek Cianfrance, SOUND OF METAL

Aaron Sorkin, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

 

PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN won this year’s WGA original screenplay award.  As it happens, it’s my favorite and the most likely to go home with an Oscar®.  That said, Aaron Sorkin’s rabble rousing THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 could pull off a surprise win.  For a more detailed discussion of the original screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.

 

Should and Will Win:   Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (PCI 2)

Overlooked:    Eliza Hittman, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS

 

Best Animated Film

 

ONWARD

OVER THE MOON

A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON

SOUL

WOLFWALKERS

 

SOUL isn’t prime Pixar, but it’s probably prime enough to win.  I’ve heard great things about WOLFWALKERS, which I have yet to see, and am rooting for to pull off an upset.

 

Will Win:          SOUL (PCI 3)

 

Best Foreign Language Film

 

ANOTHER ROUND (Denmark)

BETTER DAYS (Hong Kong)

COLLECTIVE (Romania)

THE MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN (Tunisia)

QUO VADIS, AIDA? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

 

ANOTHER ROUND is the clear frontrunner.  COLLECTIVE (a good movie) and QUO VADIS, AIDA? (not a good movie) are the next most likely.  Both are grim.  Hence ANOTHER ROUND (both good and hopeful) will be the tonic Oscar® chooses.

 

Should and Will Win:   ANOTHER ROUND (PCI 3)

 

Best Documentary Feature

 

COLLECTIVE

CRIP CAMP

THE MOLE AGENT

MY OCTOPUS TEACHER

TIME

 

MY OCTOPUS TEACHER, a surprisingly affecting story of mutual love and respect between man and mollusk, should prevail.  TIME is the next most likely.

 

Should and Will Win:   MY OCTOPUS TEACHER (PCI 2)

 

Best Cinematography

 

Sean Bobbitt, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Erik Messerschmidt, MANK

Phedon Papamichael, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Joshua James Richards, NOMADLAND

Dariusz Wolski, NEWS OF THE WORLD

 

Although MANK won the ASC award, I suspect that the Academy will honor NOMADLAND in this category.

 

Should Win:     Sean Bobbitt, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Will Win:          Joshua James Richards, NOMADLAND (PC 3)

 

Best Film Editing

 

Alan Baumgarten, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Yorgos Lamprinos, THE FATHER

Mikkel E. G. Nielsen, SOUND OF METAL

Frédéric Thoraval, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND

 

Oftentimes the film editing award tracks with the Best Picture winner.  However, this year I think it will go to the sprawling, enormously entertaining THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, though I would prefer it be given to PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN.  That said, this category is a potential toss-up and could easily go to SOUND OF METAL instead of THE CHICAGO 7.

 

Should Win:     Frédéric Thoraval, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Will Win:          Alan Baumgarten, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (PC 2)

 

Best Costume Design

 

Alexandra Byrne, EMMA

Bina Daigeler, MULAN

Massimo Cantini Parrini, PINOCCHIO

Ann Roth, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

Trish Summerville, MANK

 

Ann Roth’s superb design for MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM should carry the day.  However, EMMA is exactly the kind of period piece that Oscar® loves and, therefore, should not be counted out.

 

Should and Will Win:   Ann Roth, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (PC 3)

 

Best Production Design

 

THE FATHER

MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

MANK

NEWS OF THE WORLD

TENET

 

Oscar® will not be able to let MANK walk away without at least one statue.  I think production design is where that will happen.

 

Should and Will Win:   MANK (PC 4)

 

Best Original Score

 

Terence Blanchard, DA 5 BLOODS

James Newton Howard, NEWS OF THE WORLD

Emile Mosseri, MINARI

Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, MANK

Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste, SOUL

 

It’s great to see Nine Inch Nails’ Reznor and Ross getting so much Academy love, and I suspect that SOUL will win the Oscar® gold this year.  However, I’m most fond of Mosseri’s impressionistic score for MINARI.

 

Should Win:     Emile Mosseri, MINARI

Will Win:          Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste, SOUL (PC 4)

 

Best Original Song

 

“Fight For You,” JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

“Hear My Voice,” THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

“Husavik,” EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: THE STORY OF FIRE SAGA

“Io Si (Seen),” THE LIFE AHEAD (LA VITA DAVANTI A SE)

“Speak Now,” ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…

 

“Speak Now” is probably your best bet.  That said, three nominated songs are from civil rights-era films (“Fight For You” and “Hear My Voice” are the others).  Could they cancel each other out, allowing the song from the Will Ferrell movie (“Husavik”) to swoop in?  Weirder things have happened.

 

Should and Will Win:   “Speak Now,” ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI… (PC 2)

 

Best Sound Mixing

 

GREYHOUND

MANK

NEWS OF THE WORLD

SOUL

SOUND OF METAL

 

SOUND OF METAL is a wonderful movie, but I fear it may otherwise be shut out (unless it wins Film Editing).  The movie is about a drummer in a metal band losing his hearing, and its sound design is encompassing.  It should win here.

 

Should and Will Win:   SOUND OF METAL (PC 4)

 

Best Visual Effects

 

LOVE AND MONSTERS

THE MIDNIGHT SKY

MULAN

THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN

TENET

 

The only reason to watch TENET is its visual effects.  And even then…

 

Should and Will Win:   TENET (PC 4)

 

Best Makeup

 

EMMA

HILLBILLY ELEGY

MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

MANK

PINOCCHIO

 

Will HILLBILLY ELEGY get a sympathy award here?  Doubt it.  MA RAINEY is da bomb.

 

Should and Will Win:   MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (PC 4)

 

Best Documentary Short Subject

 

COLETTE

A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION

DO NOT SPLIT

HUNGER WARD

A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA

 

Every indication is that this will come down to A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA or A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION.  Below is my guess.

 

Will Win:          A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA  (PC 1)

 

Best Animated Short Subject

 

BURROW

GENIUS LOCI

IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU

OPERA

YES-PEOPLE

 

Will Win:          IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU (PC 3)

 

Best Live Action Short Subject

 

FEELING THROUGH

THE LETTER ROOM

THE PRESENT

TWO DISTANT STRANGERS

WHITE EYE

 

Your best bets are THE LETTER ROOM or TWO DISTANT STRANGERS.  Below is my guess.

 

Will Win:          TWO DISTANT STRANGERS (PC 1)