Pandemic or no pandemic, it’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Below are my predictions for the 2020 Oscars®. To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5. 1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.
And the nominees are:
Best Picture:
THE FATHER
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MANK
MINARI
NOMADLAND
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
SOUND OF METAL
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
In a normal year a Hollywood-centric film like MANK would be the frontrunner. But this is not a normal year. One month earlier I would have predicted the heartwarming MINARI the film to beat – it’s certainly one of my favorites. But as we inch toward the ceremony NOMADLAND and THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 are the films battling for the title. NOMADLAND won the PGA and DGA awards. THE CHICAGO 7 won the SAG award. I would give the edge to NOMADLAND.
Should Win: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Will Win: NOMADLAND (PCI 3)
Overlooked: FIRST COW
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Best Director:
Lee Isaac Chung, MINARI
Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
David Fincher, MANK
Thomas Vinterberg, ANOTHER ROUND
Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND
I would argue that Emerald Fennell’s PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN pulled off the most radical and challenging directorial feat of the year. That said, Chloé Zhao will win for NOMADLAND. It will be an historic night.
Should Win: Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Will Win: Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Shaka King, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Kelly Reichardt, FIRST COW
Best Actress:
Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Andra Day, THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
My two favorite lead actress performances also happen to be the frontrunners. How nice is that? I would say that Carey Mulligan has the slight edge, because she has never won an Oscar®. However, Viola Davis was so powerful (and her previous Oscar® was for a supporting role) the Academy may award her again. And lest we forget Frances McDormand could ride the NOMADLAND coattails. I’m going out on a limb and predict Davis.
Should Win: Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Will Win: Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (PCI 2)
Overlooked: Elisabeth Moss, THE INVISIBLE MAN
Best Actor:
Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL
Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER
Gary Oldman, MANK
Steven Yeun, MINARI
This category has uniformly strong contenders, but the winner is as close to a lock as you will find. Chadwick Boseman will win posthumously and would deserve the award even without factoring in sentiment. If there is an upset, the recipient would likely be Anthony Hopkins.
Should and Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Delroy Lindo, DA 5 BLOODS
John Magaro, FIRST COW
Best Supporting Actress:
Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Glenn Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY
Olivia Colman, THE FATHER
Amanda Seyfried, MANK
Yuh-Jung Youn, MINARI
Some may think that Glenn Close should win because she was “robbed” of the Best Actress prize two years ago (she wasn’t). But those who think that probably haven’t seen just how unwatchable HILLBILLY ELEGY is (trust me on this one). Instead the most deserving Yuh-Jung Youn of MINARI will win.
Should and Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn, MINARI (PCI 3)
Overlooked: Olivia Cooke, SOUND OF METAL
Best Supporting Actor:
Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Leslie Odom Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
Paul Raci, SOUND OF METAL
LaKeith Stanfield, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Kaluuya and Stanfield have each been nominated as a supporting actor for JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH. I would argue that Stanfield is the lead. This could split the vote, which could mean a loss for frontrunner Kaluuya. I don’t think that will happen. However, if it does the most likely beneficiary would be Sacha Baron Cohen. Paul Raci could also be a surprise winner in that scenario.
Should and Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH (PCI 3)
Overlooked: Bo Burnham, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Ramin Bahrani, THE WHITE TIGER
Cohen, Hines, Swimer, Baynham, Rivinoja, Mazer, Friedman, Kern, Pedrad, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, THE FATHER
Kemp Powers, ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM won the WGA adapted screenplay award this year. That said, neither THE FATHER nor NOMADLAND were eligible for that award, but I think the Academy will chose one of them. I would prefer THE FATHER, but NOMADLAND has strong coattails. I’m predicting a surprise here with THE FATHER winning the Oscar®. For a more detailed discussion of the adapted screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.
Should and Will Win: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, THE FATHER (PCI 1)
Overlooked: Jon Raymond & Kelly Reichardt, FIRST COW
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Lee Isaac Chung, MINARI
Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, Derek Cianfrance, SOUND OF METAL
Aaron Sorkin, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN won this year’s WGA original screenplay award. As it happens, it’s my favorite and the most likely to go home with an Oscar®. That said, Aaron Sorkin’s rabble rousing THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 could pull off a surprise win. For a more detailed discussion of the original screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.
Should and Will Win: Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (PCI 2)
Overlooked: Eliza Hittman, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS
Best Animated Film
ONWARD
OVER THE MOON
A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON
SOUL
WOLFWALKERS
SOUL isn’t prime Pixar, but it’s probably prime enough to win. I’ve heard great things about WOLFWALKERS, which I have yet to see, and am rooting for to pull off an upset.
Will Win: SOUL (PCI 3)
Best Foreign Language Film
ANOTHER ROUND (Denmark)
BETTER DAYS (Hong Kong)
COLLECTIVE (Romania)
THE MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN (Tunisia)
QUO VADIS, AIDA? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
ANOTHER ROUND is the clear frontrunner. COLLECTIVE (a good movie) and QUO VADIS, AIDA? (not a good movie) are the next most likely. Both are grim. Hence ANOTHER ROUND (both good and hopeful) will be the tonic Oscar® chooses.
Should and Will Win: ANOTHER ROUND (PCI 3)
Best Documentary Feature
COLLECTIVE
CRIP CAMP
THE MOLE AGENT
MY OCTOPUS TEACHER
TIME
MY OCTOPUS TEACHER, a surprisingly affecting story of mutual love and respect between man and mollusk, should prevail. TIME is the next most likely.
Should and Will Win: MY OCTOPUS TEACHER (PCI 2)
Best Cinematography
Sean Bobbitt, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Erik Messerschmidt, MANK
Phedon Papamichael, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Joshua James Richards, NOMADLAND
Dariusz Wolski, NEWS OF THE WORLD
Although MANK won the ASC award, I suspect that the Academy will honor NOMADLAND in this category.
Should Win: Sean Bobbitt, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Will Win: Joshua James Richards, NOMADLAND (PC 3)
Best Film Editing
Alan Baumgarten, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Yorgos Lamprinos, THE FATHER
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen, SOUND OF METAL
Frédéric Thoraval, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND
Oftentimes the film editing award tracks with the Best Picture winner. However, this year I think it will go to the sprawling, enormously entertaining THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, though I would prefer it be given to PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN. That said, this category is a potential toss-up and could easily go to SOUND OF METAL instead of THE CHICAGO 7.
Should Win: Frédéric Thoraval, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Will Win: Alan Baumgarten, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (PC 2)
Best Costume Design
Alexandra Byrne, EMMA
Bina Daigeler, MULAN
Massimo Cantini Parrini, PINOCCHIO
Ann Roth, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Trish Summerville, MANK
Ann Roth’s superb design for MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM should carry the day. However, EMMA is exactly the kind of period piece that Oscar® loves and, therefore, should not be counted out.
Should and Will Win: Ann Roth, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (PC 3)
Best Production Design
THE FATHER
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
NEWS OF THE WORLD
TENET
Oscar® will not be able to let MANK walk away without at least one statue. I think production design is where that will happen.
Should and Will Win: MANK (PC 4)
Best Original Score
Terence Blanchard, DA 5 BLOODS
James Newton Howard, NEWS OF THE WORLD
Emile Mosseri, MINARI
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, MANK
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste, SOUL
It’s great to see Nine Inch Nails’ Reznor and Ross getting so much Academy love, and I suspect that SOUL will win the Oscar® gold this year. However, I’m most fond of Mosseri’s impressionistic score for MINARI.
Should Win: Emile Mosseri, MINARI
Will Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste, SOUL (PC 4)
Best Original Song
“Fight For You,” JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
“Hear My Voice,” THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
“Husavik,” EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: THE STORY OF FIRE SAGA
“Io Si (Seen),” THE LIFE AHEAD (LA VITA DAVANTI A SE)
“Speak Now,” ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
“Speak Now” is probably your best bet. That said, three nominated songs are from civil rights-era films (“Fight For You” and “Hear My Voice” are the others). Could they cancel each other out, allowing the song from the Will Ferrell movie (“Husavik”) to swoop in? Weirder things have happened.
Should and Will Win: “Speak Now,” ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI… (PC 2)
Best Sound Mixing
GREYHOUND
MANK
NEWS OF THE WORLD
SOUL
SOUND OF METAL
SOUND OF METAL is a wonderful movie, but I fear it may otherwise be shut out (unless it wins Film Editing). The movie is about a drummer in a metal band losing his hearing, and its sound design is encompassing. It should win here.
Should and Will Win: SOUND OF METAL (PC 4)
Best Visual Effects
LOVE AND MONSTERS
THE MIDNIGHT SKY
MULAN
THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN
TENET
The only reason to watch TENET is its visual effects. And even then…
Should and Will Win: TENET (PC 4)
Best Makeup
EMMA
HILLBILLY ELEGY
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
PINOCCHIO
Will HILLBILLY ELEGY get a sympathy award here? Doubt it. MA RAINEY is da bomb.
Should and Will Win: MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (PC 4)
Best Documentary Short Subject
COLETTE
A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION
DO NOT SPLIT
HUNGER WARD
A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA
Every indication is that this will come down to A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA or A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION. Below is my guess.
Will Win: A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA (PC 1)
Best Animated Short Subject
BURROW
GENIUS LOCI
IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU
OPERA
YES-PEOPLE
Will Win: IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU (PC 3)
Best Live Action Short Subject
FEELING THROUGH
THE LETTER ROOM
THE PRESENT
TWO DISTANT STRANGERS
WHITE EYE
Your best bets are THE LETTER ROOM or TWO DISTANT STRANGERS. Below is my guess.
Will Win: TWO DISTANT STRANGERS (PC 1)
Brian, I completely agree with you regarding the male and female supporting actors "should" and "will". Ditto Sound, Make-up, Song and Best Actress.
ReplyDeleteWhile I have a lot of problems with Fennell's script for "...Woman", she directed the hell out of that movie in every way and easily deserves it over the vastly overrated "Nomadland" (I loved Zhao's "The Rider" and was fascinated by "Songs My Brother Taught Me"... but was so bored by her latest.) But there's no way not to conclude Zhao will win Best Director with every award win up to now.
Generally, I see minor taste differences of preference (My personal pick for "Should and Will Win" Best Picture is "...Chicago 7" with "Sound of Metal" and "Judas...." as my personal runners-up, which you clearly liked all 3 movies.)
BUT I really want to hear why you think Quo Vadis Aida? was a bad film. I found that opinion downright shocking as I had diametrically different feelings. I found it devastating and powerful and really well made. It also just won the Spirit Award so I know I'm not alone in my opinion about its quality.
"Quo Vadis, Aida?" covers an undeniably shameful period in history, but I felt the storytelling lacked real drama. Perhaps it would have been better as a documentary. The ending was telegraphed from the beginning. The Srebrenica mayor bitterly complains about the UN's constant failures. Then we follow Aida as she (and her family and other Srebrenicans) continues to put her hopes in the competence and effectiveness of the UN. It feels less tragic than pathetic. Perhaps if I didn't know the ultimate ending I would have felt differently, but even then I'm doubtful. The story was worthy of tragedy but never came close for me.
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