Pandemic or no pandemic, it’s time once again to match
wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Below are my predictions for the 2020 Oscars®. To assist with your own predictions, I’ve
created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5. 1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident,
4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.
And the nominees are:
Best
Picture:
THE
FATHER
JUDAS
AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MANK
MINARI
NOMADLAND
PROMISING
YOUNG WOMAN
SOUND OF
METAL
THE
TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
In a
normal year a Hollywood-centric film like MANK would be the frontrunner. But this is not a normal year. One month earlier I would have predicted the
heartwarming MINARI the film to beat – it’s certainly one of my favorites. But as we inch toward the ceremony NOMADLAND
and THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 are the films battling for the title. NOMADLAND won the PGA and DGA awards. THE CHICAGO 7 won the SAG award. I would give the edge to NOMADLAND.
Should Win: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Will Win: NOMADLAND (PCI 3)
Overlooked: FIRST COW
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Best
Director:
Lee
Isaac Chung, MINARI
Emerald
Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
David
Fincher, MANK
Thomas
Vinterberg, ANOTHER ROUND
Chloé
Zhao, NOMADLAND
I would
argue that Emerald Fennell’s PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN pulled off the most radical
and challenging directorial feat of the year.
That said, Chloé
Zhao will win for NOMADLAND. It will be
an historic night.
Should
Win: Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG
WOMAN
Will Win: Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Shaka King, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Kelly Reichardt, FIRST
COW
Best
Actress:
Viola
Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Andra
Day, THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Vanessa
Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
Frances
McDormand, NOMADLAND
Carey
Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
My
two favorite lead actress performances also happen to be the frontrunners. How nice is that? I would say that Carey Mulligan has the
slight edge, because she has never won an Oscar®. However, Viola Davis was so powerful (and her
previous Oscar® was for a supporting role) the Academy may award her again. And lest we forget Frances McDormand could
ride the NOMADLAND coattails. I’m going
out on a limb and predict Davis.
Should Win: Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Will
Win: Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S
BLACK BOTTOM (PCI 2)
Overlooked: Elisabeth Moss, THE INVISIBLE MAN
Best
Actor:
Riz
Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL
Chadwick
Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Anthony
Hopkins, THE FATHER
Gary
Oldman, MANK
Steven
Yeun, MINARI
This category
has uniformly strong contenders, but the winner is as close to a lock as you
will find. Chadwick Boseman will win
posthumously and would deserve the award even without factoring in sentiment. If there is an upset, the recipient would
likely be Anthony Hopkins.
Should and
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S
BLACK BOTTOM (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Delroy Lindo, DA 5 BLOODS
John Magaro, FIRST COW
Best
Supporting Actress:
Maria
Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Glenn
Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY
Olivia
Colman, THE FATHER
Amanda
Seyfried, MANK
Yuh-Jung
Youn, MINARI
Some may
think that Glenn Close should win because she was “robbed” of the Best Actress
prize two years ago (she wasn’t). But
those who think that probably haven’t seen just how unwatchable HILLBILLY ELEGY
is (trust me on this one). Instead the
most deserving Yuh-Jung Youn of MINARI will win.
Should and
Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn, MINARI (PCI 3)
Overlooked: Olivia Cooke, SOUND OF METAL
Best
Supporting Actor:
Sacha
Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Daniel
Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Leslie
Odom Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
Paul
Raci, SOUND OF METAL
LaKeith
Stanfield, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Kaluuya
and Stanfield have each been nominated as a supporting actor for JUDAS AND THE
BLACK MESSIAH. I would argue that
Stanfield is the lead. This could split the
vote, which could mean a loss for frontrunner Kaluuya. I don’t think that will happen. However, if it does the most likely
beneficiary would be Sacha Baron Cohen.
Paul Raci could also be a surprise winner in that scenario.
Should
and Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND
THE BLACK MESSIAH (PCI 3)
Overlooked: Bo Burnham, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Best
Adapted Screenplay:
Ramin Bahrani, THE WHITE TIGER
Cohen, Hines, Swimer, Baynham,
Rivinoja, Mazer, Friedman, Kern, Pedrad, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller,
THE FATHER
Kemp Powers, ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
Chloé
Zhao, NOMADLAND
BORAT
SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM won the WGA adapted screenplay award this year. That said, neither THE FATHER nor NOMADLAND
were eligible for that award, but I think the Academy will chose one of
them. I would prefer THE FATHER, but
NOMADLAND has strong coattails. I’m
predicting a surprise here with THE FATHER winning the Oscar®. For a more detailed discussion of the adapted
screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE podcast with
screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster Alexander Troxel,
the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.
Should and
Will Win: Christopher Hampton and
Florian Zeller, THE FATHER (PCI 1)
Overlooked: Jon Raymond & Kelly Reichardt, FIRST COW
Ruben
Santiago-Hudson, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Best
Original Screenplay:
Will
Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Lee
Isaac Chung, MINARI
Emerald
Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Darius
Marder, Abraham Marder, Derek Cianfrance, SOUND OF METAL
Aaron
Sorkin, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
PROMISING
YOUNG WOMAN won this year’s WGA original screenplay award. As it happens, it’s my favorite and the most
likely to go home with an Oscar®. That said, Aaron
Sorkin’s rabble rousing THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 could pull off a surprise
win. For a more detailed discussion of
the original screenplays, check out this year’s Oscar®-themed ON THE PAGE
podcast with screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, writer and podcaster
Alexander Troxel, the inimitable Michael Musa, and me.
Should and
Will Win: Emerald Fennell, PROMISING
YOUNG WOMAN (PCI 2)
Overlooked: Eliza Hittman, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS
Best
Animated Film
ONWARD
OVER
THE MOON
A
SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON
SOUL
WOLFWALKERS
SOUL
isn’t prime Pixar, but it’s probably prime enough to win. I’ve heard great things about WOLFWALKERS,
which I have yet to see, and am rooting for to pull off an upset.
Will
Win: SOUL (PCI 3)
Best
Foreign Language Film
ANOTHER
ROUND (Denmark)
BETTER
DAYS (Hong Kong)
COLLECTIVE
(Romania)
THE
MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN (Tunisia)
QUO
VADIS, AIDA? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
ANOTHER
ROUND is the clear frontrunner.
COLLECTIVE (a good movie) and QUO VADIS, AIDA? (not a good movie) are
the next most likely. Both are grim. Hence ANOTHER ROUND (both good and hopeful)
will be the tonic Oscar® chooses.
Should
and Will Win: ANOTHER ROUND (PCI 3)
Best
Documentary Feature
COLLECTIVE
CRIP
CAMP
THE
MOLE AGENT
MY
OCTOPUS TEACHER
TIME
MY
OCTOPUS TEACHER, a surprisingly affecting story of mutual love and respect
between man and mollusk, should prevail.
TIME is the next most likely.
Should
and Will Win: MY OCTOPUS TEACHER (PCI 2)
Best
Cinematography
Sean
Bobbitt, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Erik
Messerschmidt, MANK
Phedon
Papamichael, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Joshua
James Richards, NOMADLAND
Dariusz
Wolski, NEWS OF THE WORLD
Although
MANK won the ASC award, I suspect that the Academy will honor NOMADLAND in this
category.
Should
Win: Sean Bobbitt, JUDAS AND THE BLACK
MESSIAH
Will
Win: Joshua James Richards,
NOMADLAND (PC 3)
Best
Film Editing
Alan
Baumgarten, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Yorgos
Lamprinos, THE FATHER
Mikkel
E. G. Nielsen, SOUND OF METAL
Frédéric
Thoraval, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Chloé
Zhao, NOMADLAND
Oftentimes
the film editing award tracks with the Best Picture winner. However, this year I think it will go to the
sprawling, enormously entertaining THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, though I would
prefer it be given to PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN.
That said, this category is a potential toss-up and could easily go to
SOUND OF METAL instead of THE CHICAGO 7.
Should
Win: Frédéric Thoraval, PROMISING
YOUNG WOMAN
Will
Win: Alan Baumgarten, THE TRIAL
OF THE CHICAGO 7 (PC 2)
Best
Costume Design
Alexandra
Byrne, EMMA
Bina
Daigeler, MULAN
Massimo
Cantini Parrini, PINOCCHIO
Ann
Roth, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Trish
Summerville, MANK
Ann
Roth’s superb design for MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM should carry the day. However, EMMA is exactly the kind of period
piece that Oscar® loves and, therefore, should not be counted out.
Should
and Will Win: Ann Roth, MA RAINEY’S
BLACK BOTTOM (PC 3)
Best
Production Design
THE
FATHER
MA
RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
NEWS
OF THE WORLD
TENET
Oscar®
will not be able to let MANK walk away without at least one statue. I think production design is where that will
happen.
Should
and Will Win: MANK (PC 4)
Best
Original Score
Terence
Blanchard, DA 5 BLOODS
James
Newton Howard, NEWS OF THE WORLD
Emile
Mosseri, MINARI
Trent
Reznor and Atticus Ross, MANK
Trent
Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste, SOUL
It’s
great to see Nine Inch Nails’ Reznor and Ross getting so much Academy love, and
I suspect that SOUL will win the Oscar® gold this year. However, I’m most fond of Mosseri’s
impressionistic score for MINARI.
Should
Win: Emile Mosseri, MINARI
Will
Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross,
Jon Batiste, SOUL (PC 4)
Best
Original Song
“Fight
For You,” JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
“Hear
My Voice,” THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
“Husavik,”
EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: THE STORY OF FIRE SAGA
“Io
Si (Seen),” THE LIFE AHEAD (LA VITA DAVANTI A SE)
“Speak
Now,” ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
“Speak
Now” is probably your best bet. That
said, three nominated songs are from civil rights-era films (“Fight For You”
and “Hear My Voice” are the others).
Could they cancel each other out, allowing the song from the Will
Ferrell movie (“Husavik”) to swoop in?
Weirder things have happened.
Should
and Will Win: “Speak Now,” ONE NIGHT IN
MIAMI… (PC 2)
Best
Sound Mixing
GREYHOUND
MANK
NEWS OF THE WORLD
SOUL
SOUND OF METAL
SOUND OF METAL is a wonderful movie, but I fear it may otherwise be shut
out (unless it wins Film Editing). The
movie is about a drummer in a metal band losing his hearing, and its sound
design is encompassing. It should win
here.
Should
and Will Win: SOUND OF METAL (PC 4)
Best
Visual Effects
LOVE
AND MONSTERS
THE
MIDNIGHT SKY
MULAN
THE
ONE AND ONLY IVAN
TENET
The
only reason to watch TENET is its visual effects. And even then…
Should
and Will Win: TENET (PC 4)
Best
Makeup
EMMA
HILLBILLY
ELEGY
MA
RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MANK
PINOCCHIO
Will
HILLBILLY ELEGY get a sympathy award here?
Doubt it. MA RAINEY is da bomb.
Should
and Will Win: MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
(PC 4)
Best
Documentary Short Subject
COLETTE
A
CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION
DO
NOT SPLIT
HUNGER
WARD
A
LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA
Every
indication is that this will come down to A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA or A CONCERTO
IS A CONVERSATION. Below is my guess.
Will
Win: A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA (PC 1)
Best
Animated Short Subject
BURROW
GENIUS
LOCI
IF
ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU
OPERA
YES-PEOPLE
Will
Win: IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE
YOU (PC 3)
Best
Live Action Short Subject
FEELING
THROUGH
THE
LETTER ROOM
THE
PRESENT
TWO
DISTANT STRANGERS
WHITE
EYE
Your
best bets are THE LETTER ROOM or TWO DISTANT STRANGERS. Below is my guess.
Will
Win: TWO DISTANT STRANGERS (PC 1)
