Friday, February 7, 2020

THE POPE’S 2019 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Below are my predictions for the 2019 Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

FORD v FERRARI
THE IRISHMAN
JOJO RABBIT
JOKER
LITTLE WOMEN
MARRIAGE STORY
1917
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE

There are two things you can count on.  The Academy loves it when Hollywood is immortalized (THE ARTIST) or saves the day (see ARGO), and it loves tales of sacrifice and heroism (myriad examples include SCHINDLER’S LIST and GLADIATOR).  With this in mind you should narrow your choices down to 1917 and ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD.  (PARASITE has a lot of heat but will likely suffer the same fate as ROMA.  See the Best International Feature [f/k/a Best Foreign Language Film] entry below.)  The Academy also loves showoffs.  Tarantino’s standard mode is showing off, but 1917 has the gimmick that most recently gave BIRDMAN its edge – the illusion of the continuous take.  For this reason, I’m going with 1917.

Should Win:     PARASITE
Will Win:          1917 (PCI 3)
Overlooked:     KNIVES OUT

Best Director:

Bong Joon Ho, PARASITE
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, JOKER
Martin Scorsese, THE IRISHMAN
Quentin Tarantino, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

Will this be Tarantino’s year to finally win the director Oscar®?  With chances to recognize him as a director dwindling, this strikes me as the Academy’s possible surprise gift.  After all Mendes already won for AMERICAN BEAUTY twenty years ago.  But that was twenty years ago, and that “single” long take is soooo impressive.  Mendes will deny Tarantino and the more deserving candidate, Bong Joon Ho, when the time comes.

Should Win:     Bong Joon Ho, PARASITE
Will Win:          Sam Mendes, 1917 (PCI 4)
Overlooked:     Greta Gerwig, LITTLE WOMEN
                        Taika Waititi, JOJO RABBIT

Best Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, HARRIET
Scarlett Johannson, MARRIAGE STORY
Saoirse Ronan, LITTLE WOMEN
Charlize Theron, BOMBSHELL
Renée Zellweger, JUDY

Renée Zellweger is the consensus favorite.  But so was Glenn Close last year, and we all remember how that turned out.  That said I don’t think lightning is going to strike twice.  There’s no “towering” performance such as Olivia Colman’s in the offing this year to play spoiler.  Go with Zellweger.

Should and Will Win:  Renée Zellweger, JUDY (PCI 5)
Overlooked:                Lupita Nyong’o, US

Best Actor:

Antonio Banderas, PAIN AND GLORY
Leonardo DiCaprio, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Adam Driver, MARRIAGE STORY
Joaquin Phoenix, JOKER
Jonathan Pryce, THE TWO POPES

While I would love it if Adam Driver pulled an upset, you would be foolish to pick anyone but Joaquin Phoenix.  It’s what Oscar® lives for -- a showy performance in a “thought-provoking” movie.  It is also an inexplicably popular movie, so Academy voters can appear less elitist.

Should Win:     Adam Driver, MARRIAGE STORY
Will Win:          Joaquin Phoenix, JOKER (PCI 5)
Overlooked:     Roman Griffin Davis, JOJO RABBIT
 Taron Egerton, ROCKETMAN

Best Supporting Actress:

Kathy Bates, RICHARD JEWELL
Laura Dern, MARRIAGE STORY
Scarlett Johannson, JOJO RABBIT
Florence Pugh, LITTLE WOMEN
Margot Robbie, BOMBSHELL

Laura Dern has had a remarkable year (MARRIAGE STORY, LITTLE WOMEN), but so has Scarlett Johannson (MARRIAGE STORY, JOJO RABBIT).  I would be hard-pressed to choose between them.  And it’s a shame to have to.  I predict a Laura Dern victory (you should, too), but my heart remains with Scarlett Johannson.

Should Win:    Scarlett Johannson, JOJO RABBIT
Will Win:          Laura Dern, MARRIAGE STORY (PCI 3)
Overlooked:    Jennifer Lopez, HUSTLERS

Best Supporting Actor:

Tom Hanks, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Anthony Hopkins, THE TWO POPES
Al Pacino, THE IRISHMAN
Joe Pesci, THE IRISHMAN
Brad Pitt, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

The two strongest performances in this category come from THE IRISHMAN and will likely cancel each other out.  Also, Pacino and Pesci have already won Oscars®.  This is Brad Pitt’s year and we need never speak of it again.

Should Win:    Joe Pesci, THE IRISHMAN
Will Win:          Brad Pitt, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD (PCI 4)
Overlooked:    Timothée Chalamet, LITTLE WOMEN

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Greta Gerwig, LITTLE WOMEN
Anthony McCarten, THE TWO POPES
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, JOKER
Taika Waititi, JOJO RABBIT
Steven Zaillian, THE IRISHMAN

The WGA crowned JOJO RABBIT this year’s best adapted script, taking some wind out of the sails of LITTLE WOMEN.  I love both scripts almost equally and feel it would be easier to flip a coin.  I suspect that Waititi will prevail because, well, making fun of Hitler.  That said, if Greta Gerwig wins I’d be completely fine with it.  Oscar® pool be damned.  For a more comprehensive discussion of the year's nominated screenplays, check out the On The Page Oscar® (with me, screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, and the always adroit Michael Musa) which will likely drop later today (Friday, February 7).

Should Win:    Greta Gerwig, LITTLE WOMEN
Will Win:          Taika Waititi, JOJO RABBIT (PCI 3)
Overlooked:     Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN
                          THE NEIGHBORHOOD

Best Original Screenplay:

Noah Baumbach, MARRIAGE STORY
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won, PARASITE
Rian Johnson, KNIVES OUT
Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

Until the WGA awards Tarantino was widely expected to win his third original screenplay Oscar® this year.  His most recent win was in 2013 for DJANGO UNCHAINED.  However, PARASITE won the WGA original script award days and may have the momentum to pull ahead in the final turn.  For a more comprehensive discussion of the year's nominated screenplays, check out the On The Page Oscar® (with me, screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, and the always adroit Michael Musa) which will likely drop later today (Friday, February 7).

Should and Will Win:  Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won, PARASITE (PCI 2)
Overlooked:                Lena Waithe (Story by James Frey and Waithe),
                                      QUEEN & SLIM

Best Animated Film

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD
I LOST MY BODY
KLAUS
MISSING LINK
TOY STORY 4

TOY STORY 4 is a safe bet to win.  But this could be the year when HAPPY FEET defeats CARS.  I’m just completely flummoxed what this year’s HAPPY FEET could be.  Maybe KLAUS, but I'm still going with TOY STORY 4.

Should and Will Win:  TOY STORY 4 (PCI 4)

Best International Feature

CORPUS CHRISTI (Poland)
HONEYLAND (North Macedonia)
LES MISÉRABLES (France)
PAIN AND GLORY (Spain)
PARASITE (South Korea)

Like ROMA last year, PARASITE is nominated in both the Best Picture and Best International Feature (formerly Best Foreign Language Film) categories.  And, like ROMA, it will be honored here.

Should and Will Win:  PARASITE (PCI 4)

Best Documentary Feature

AMERICAN FACTORY
THE CAVE
THE EDGE OF DEMOCRACY
FOR SAMA
HONEYLAND

I haven’t seen any of the nominated films, so I’m going with conventional wisdom and predict AMERICAN FACTORY.  Be warned, however, that HONEYLAND is nominated both as documentary and as international film, and may get a stealth win.

Will Win:          AMERICAN FACTORY (PCI 4)

Best Cinematography

Jarin Blaschke, THE LIGHTHOUSE
Roger Deakins, 1917
Rodrigo Prieto, THE IRISHMAN
Robert Richardson, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Lawrence Sher, JOKER

Roger Deakins is one of my all-time favorite DPs and all but a shoo-in for the technical achievement that is 1917’s claim to fame.  I’m rooting for Robert Richardson, however, because Deakins should have persuaded director Sam Mendes to shoot the film differently.

Should Win:     Robert Richardson, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Will Win:          Roger Deakins, 1917 (PC 4)

Best Film Editing

Tom Eagles, JOJO RABBIT
Jeff Groth, JOKER
Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland, FORD v FERRARI
Thelma Schoonmaker, THE IRISHMAN
Yang Jinmo, PARASITE

The Best Picture Oscar® often goes to the film that wins for film editing.  This year the two Picture front runners have not been nominated in this category.  For this reason, I’m picking the film that’s going to win Best International Feature, PARASITE.  The odds-on favorite is FORD v FERRARI, so I’m going out on a limb on this one.

Should and Will Win:  Yang Jinmo, PARASITE (PC 2)

Best Costume Design

Mark Bridges, JOKER
Jacqueline Durran, LITTLE WOMEN
Arianne Phillips, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson, THE IRISHMAN
Mayes C. Rubeo, JOJO RABBIT

I found the costumes in LITTLE WOMEN to be absolute perfection.  Here’s where I overthink.  If Oscar® gives adapted screenplay to LITTLE WOMEN, it will give costume design to JOJO RABBIT.  And vice versa.  Since I'm predicting JOJO RABBIT wins adapted screenplay, I'm going with my heart on this one.

Should and Will Win:  Jacqueline Durran, LITTLE WOMEN (PC 3)

Best Production Design

THE IRISHMAN
JOJO RABBIT
1917
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE

OUATIH recreated vintage Hollywood of the late 1960s.  1917 recreated World War I and had a really impressive long take.  Who will survive?  I’m going with OUATIH, even though PARASITE deserves it so much more.

Should Win:     PARASITE
Will Win:          ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD (PC 3)

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, LITTLE WOMEN
Hildur Gudnadottir, JOKER
Randy Newman, MARRIAGE STORY
Thomas Newman, 1917
John Williams, STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

Hildur Gudnadottir’s JOKER score made the film work better than it deserved to.  Not sure that it’s my favorite.  That might be Alexandre Desplat’s LITTLE WOMEN.  Still JOKER’s score and Phoenix’s performance are the only reasons to watch the movie.

Should and Will Win:  Hildur Gudnadottir, JOKER (PC 4)

Best Original Song

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” TOY STORY 4
“I’m Standing With You,” BREAKTHROUGH
“Into The Unknown,” FROZEN II
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” ROCKETMAN
“Stand Up,” HARRIET

Because Taron Egerton was snubbed in the Best Actor category the Academy will make up for it with the Original Song award.

Should and Will Win:  “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” ROCKETMAN (PC 4)

Best Sound Mixing

AD ASTRA
FORD v FERRARI
JOKER
1917
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

Have I mentioned that 1917 has a really impressive long take?  That could be enough to earn it the Sound Mixing Oscar®.  It probably will.

Should Win:  FORD v FERRARI
Will Win:       1917 (PC 3)

Best Sound Editing

FORD v FERRARI
JOKER
1917
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

I think the sound editing award will go to 1917, primarily because the edited sound helps sell the super-impressive long take.

Should Win:     FORD v FERRARI
Will Win:          1917 (PCI 4)

Best Visual Effects

AVENGERS: ENDGAME
THE IRISHMAN
THE LION KING
1917
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

Traditionally the visual effects award goes to some VFX heavy action movie, normally something along the lines of an AVENGERS: ENDGAME.  There’s a good chance it will still win, but there’s more than a reasonable chance that 1917 scoops up the prize.

Should and Will Win:  1917 (PC 3)

Best Makeup

BOMBSHELL
JOKER
JUDY
MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL
1917

The makeup work in BOMBSHELL is absolutely convincing and will earn its award.

Should and Will Win:  BOMBSHELL (PC 4)

Best Documentary Short Subject

IN THE ABSENCE
LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL)
LIFE OVERTAKES ME
ST. LOUIS SUPERMAN
WALK RUN CHA-CHA

Will Win:          LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE
                          (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) (PC 2)

Best Animated Short Subject

DCERA (DAUGHTER)
HAIR LOVE
KITBULL
MEMORABLE
SISTER

Will Win:          HAIR LOVE (PC 3)

Best Live Action Short Subject

BROTHERHOOD
NEFTA FOOTBALL CLUB
THE NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW
SARIA
A SISTER

Will Win:          THE NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW (PC 2)

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