It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of
Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Below
are my predictions for the 2019 Oscars®.
To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a
Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5. 1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident,
4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.
And the nominees are:
Best
Picture:
FORD v
FERRARI
THE
IRISHMAN
JOJO
RABBIT
JOKER
LITTLE
WOMEN
MARRIAGE
STORY
1917
ONCE
UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE
There
are two things you can count on. The
Academy loves it when Hollywood is immortalized (THE ARTIST) or saves the day
(see ARGO), and it loves tales of sacrifice and heroism (myriad examples
include SCHINDLER’S LIST and GLADIATOR).
With this in mind you should narrow your choices down to 1917 and ONCE
UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD. (PARASITE has a lot of heat but will likely suffer the same fate as ROMA. See the Best International Feature [f/k/a Best Foreign Language Film] entry below.) The Academy
also loves showoffs. Tarantino’s
standard mode is showing off, but 1917 has the gimmick that most recently gave
BIRDMAN its edge – the illusion of the continuous take. For this reason, I’m going with 1917.
Should Win: PARASITE
Will Win: 1917 (PCI 3)
Overlooked: KNIVES OUT
Best
Director:
Bong
Joon Ho, PARASITE
Sam
Mendes, 1917
Todd
Phillips, JOKER
Martin
Scorsese, THE IRISHMAN
Quentin
Tarantino, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Will
this be Tarantino’s year to finally win the director Oscar®? With chances to recognize him as a director
dwindling, this strikes me as the Academy’s possible surprise gift. After all Mendes already won for AMERICAN
BEAUTY twenty years ago. But that was
twenty years ago, and that “single” long take is soooo impressive. Mendes will deny Tarantino and the more
deserving candidate, Bong Joon Ho, when the time comes.
Should
Win: Bong Joon Ho, PARASITE
Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917 (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Greta Gerwig, LITTLE WOMEN
Taika Waititi, JOJO
RABBIT
Best Actress:
Cynthia
Erivo, HARRIET
Scarlett
Johannson, MARRIAGE STORY
Saoirse
Ronan, LITTLE WOMEN
Charlize
Theron, BOMBSHELL
Renée
Zellweger, JUDY
Renée
Zellweger is the consensus favorite. But
so was Glenn Close last year, and we all remember how that turned out. That said I don’t think lightning is going to
strike twice. There’s no “towering”
performance such as Olivia Colman’s in the offing this year to play spoiler. Go with Zellweger.
Should and
Will Win: Renée Zellweger, JUDY (PCI 5)
Overlooked: Lupita Nyong’o, US
Best
Actor:
Antonio
Banderas, PAIN AND GLORY
Leonardo
DiCaprio, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Adam
Driver, MARRIAGE STORY
Joaquin
Phoenix, JOKER
Jonathan
Pryce, THE TWO POPES
While I
would love it if Adam Driver pulled an upset, you would be foolish to pick
anyone but Joaquin Phoenix. It’s what
Oscar® lives for -- a showy performance in a “thought-provoking” movie. It is also an inexplicably popular movie, so
Academy voters can appear less elitist.
Should Win: Adam Driver, MARRIAGE STORY
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, JOKER (PCI 5)
Overlooked: Roman Griffin Davis, JOJO RABBIT
Taron Egerton, ROCKETMAN
Best
Supporting Actress:
Kathy
Bates, RICHARD JEWELL
Laura
Dern, MARRIAGE STORY
Scarlett
Johannson, JOJO RABBIT
Florence
Pugh, LITTLE WOMEN
Margot
Robbie, BOMBSHELL
Laura
Dern has had a remarkable year (MARRIAGE STORY, LITTLE WOMEN), but so has
Scarlett Johannson (MARRIAGE STORY, JOJO RABBIT). I would be hard-pressed to choose between
them. And it’s a shame to have to. I predict a Laura Dern victory (you should,
too), but my heart remains with Scarlett Johannson.
Should Win: Scarlett Johannson, JOJO RABBIT
Will Win: Laura Dern, MARRIAGE STORY (PCI 3)
Overlooked: Jennifer Lopez, HUSTLERS
Best
Supporting Actor:
Tom
Hanks, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Anthony
Hopkins, THE TWO POPES
Al
Pacino, THE IRISHMAN
Joe
Pesci, THE IRISHMAN
Brad
Pitt, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
The two
strongest performances in this category come from THE IRISHMAN and will likely
cancel each other out. Also, Pacino and
Pesci have already won Oscars®. This is
Brad Pitt’s year and we need never speak of it again.
Should
Win: Joe Pesci, THE IRISHMAN
Will Win: Brad Pitt, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN
HOLLYWOOD (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Timothée Chalamet, LITTLE WOMEN
Best
Adapted Screenplay:
Greta Gerwig, LITTLE WOMEN
Anthony McCarten, THE TWO POPES
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, JOKER
Taika Waititi, JOJO RABBIT
Steven Zaillian, THE IRISHMAN
The WGA
crowned JOJO RABBIT this year’s best adapted script, taking some wind out of
the sails of LITTLE WOMEN. I love both
scripts almost equally and feel it would be easier to flip a coin. I suspect that Waititi will prevail
because, well, making fun of Hitler.
That said, if Greta Gerwig wins I’d be completely fine with it. Oscar® pool be damned. For a more comprehensive discussion of the year's nominated screenplays, check out the On The Page Oscar® (with me, screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, and the always adroit Michael Musa) which will likely drop later today (Friday, February 7).
Should
Win: Greta Gerwig, LITTLE WOMEN
Will
Win: Taika Waititi, JOJO RABBIT (PCI
3)
Overlooked: Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN
THE
NEIGHBORHOOD
Best
Original Screenplay:
Noah
Baumbach, MARRIAGE STORY
Bong
Joon Ho and Han Jin Won, PARASITE
Rian
Johnson, KNIVES OUT
Sam
Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917
Quentin
Tarantino, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Until
the WGA awards Tarantino was widely expected to win his third original screenplay
Oscar® this year. His most recent win
was in 2013 for DJANGO UNCHAINED. However,
PARASITE won the WGA original script award days and may have the momentum to pull
ahead in the final turn. For a more comprehensive discussion of the year's nominated screenplays, check out the On The Page Oscar® (with me, screenwriting teacher Pilar Alessandra, and the always adroit Michael Musa) which will likely drop later today (Friday, February 7).
Should and
Will Win: Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won, PARASITE
(PCI 2)
Overlooked: Lena Waithe (Story by James Frey and Waithe),
QUEEN & SLIM
Best
Animated Film
HOW
TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD
I
LOST MY BODY
KLAUS
MISSING
LINK
TOY
STORY 4
TOY
STORY 4 is a safe bet to win. But this
could be the year when HAPPY FEET defeats CARS.
I’m just completely flummoxed what this year’s HAPPY FEET could be. Maybe KLAUS, but I'm still going with TOY STORY 4.
Should
and Will Win: TOY STORY 4 (PCI 4)
Best
International Feature
CORPUS
CHRISTI (Poland)
HONEYLAND
(North Macedonia)
LES
MISÉRABLES (France)
PAIN
AND GLORY (Spain)
PARASITE
(South Korea)
Like
ROMA last year, PARASITE is nominated in both the Best Picture and Best
International Feature (formerly Best Foreign Language Film) categories. And, like ROMA, it will be honored here.
Should
and Will Win: PARASITE (PCI 4)
Best
Documentary Feature
AMERICAN
FACTORY
THE
CAVE
THE
EDGE OF DEMOCRACY
FOR
SAMA
HONEYLAND
I
haven’t seen any of the nominated films, so I’m going with conventional wisdom
and predict AMERICAN FACTORY. Be warned,
however, that HONEYLAND is nominated both as documentary and as international
film, and may get a stealth win.
Will
Win: AMERICAN FACTORY (PCI 4)
Best
Cinematography
Jarin
Blaschke, THE LIGHTHOUSE
Roger
Deakins, 1917
Rodrigo
Prieto, THE IRISHMAN
Robert
Richardson, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Lawrence
Sher, JOKER
Roger
Deakins is one of my all-time favorite DPs and all but a shoo-in for the
technical achievement that is 1917’s claim to fame. I’m rooting for Robert Richardson, however,
because Deakins should have persuaded director Sam Mendes to shoot the film
differently.
Should
Win: Robert Richardson, ONCE UPON A
TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Will
Win: Roger Deakins, 1917 (PC 4)
Best
Film Editing
Tom
Eagles, JOJO RABBIT
Jeff
Groth, JOKER
Michael
McCusker, Andrew Buckland, FORD v FERRARI
Thelma
Schoonmaker, THE IRISHMAN
Yang
Jinmo, PARASITE
The
Best Picture Oscar®
often goes to the film that wins for film editing. This year the two Picture front runners have
not been nominated in this category. For
this reason, I’m picking the film that’s going to win Best International
Feature, PARASITE. The odds-on favorite
is FORD v FERRARI, so I’m going out on a limb on this one.
Should
and Will Win: Yang Jinmo, PARASITE (PC 2)
Best
Costume Design
Mark
Bridges, JOKER
Jacqueline
Durran, LITTLE WOMEN
Arianne
Phillips, ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Sandy
Powell, Christopher Peterson, THE IRISHMAN
Mayes
C. Rubeo, JOJO RABBIT
I
found the costumes in LITTLE WOMEN to be absolute perfection. Here’s where I
overthink. If Oscar® gives adapted screenplay to
LITTLE WOMEN, it will give costume design to JOJO RABBIT. And vice versa. Since I'm predicting JOJO RABBIT wins adapted screenplay, I'm going with my heart on this one.
Should
and Will Win: Jacqueline Durran, LITTLE
WOMEN (PC 3)
Best
Production Design
THE
IRISHMAN
JOJO
RABBIT
1917
ONCE
UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE
OUATIH
recreated vintage Hollywood of the late 1960s.
1917 recreated World War I and had a really impressive long take. Who will survive? I’m going with OUATIH, even though PARASITE
deserves it so much more.
Should
Win: PARASITE
Will
Win: ONCE UPON A TIME…IN
HOLLYWOOD (PC 3)
Best
Original Score
Alexandre
Desplat, LITTLE WOMEN
Hildur
Gudnadottir, JOKER
Randy
Newman, MARRIAGE STORY
Thomas
Newman, 1917
John
Williams, STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
Hildur
Gudnadottir’s JOKER score made the film work better than it deserved to. Not sure that it’s my favorite. That might be Alexandre Desplat’s LITTLE
WOMEN. Still JOKER’s score and Phoenix’s
performance are the only reasons to watch the movie.
Should
and Will Win: Hildur Gudnadottir, JOKER
(PC 4)
Best
Original Song
“I
Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” TOY STORY 4
“I’m
Standing With You,” BREAKTHROUGH
“Into
The Unknown,” FROZEN II
“(I’m
Gonna) Love Me Again,” ROCKETMAN
“Stand
Up,” HARRIET
Because
Taron Egerton was snubbed in the Best Actor category the Academy will make up
for it with the Original Song award.
Should
and Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,”
ROCKETMAN (PC 4)
Best
Sound Mixing
AD ASTRA
FORD v FERRARI
JOKER
1917
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Have I mentioned that 1917 has a really impressive long take? That could be enough to earn it the Sound
Mixing Oscar®. It probably
will.
Should Win: FORD v FERRARI
Will Win: 1917 (PC 3)
Best
Sound Editing
FORD
v FERRARI
JOKER
1917
ONCE
UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
STAR
WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
I
think the sound editing award will go to 1917, primarily because the edited
sound helps sell the super-impressive long take.
Should
Win: FORD v FERRARI
Will
Win: 1917 (PCI 4)
Best
Visual Effects
AVENGERS:
ENDGAME
THE
IRISHMAN
THE
LION KING
1917
STAR
WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
Traditionally
the visual effects award goes to some VFX heavy action movie, normally
something along the lines of an AVENGERS: ENDGAME. There’s a good chance it will still win, but
there’s more than a reasonable chance that 1917 scoops up the prize.
Should
and Will Win: 1917 (PC 3)
Best
Makeup
BOMBSHELL
JOKER
JUDY
MALEFICENT:
MISTRESS OF EVIL
1917
The
makeup work in BOMBSHELL is absolutely convincing and will earn its award.
Should
and Will Win: BOMBSHELL (PC 4)
Best
Documentary Short Subject
IN
THE ABSENCE
LEARNING
TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL)
LIFE
OVERTAKES ME
ST.
LOUIS SUPERMAN
WALK
RUN CHA-CHA
Will
Win: LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A
WARZONE
(IF YOU’RE A GIRL) (PC 2)
Best
Animated Short Subject
DCERA
(DAUGHTER)
HAIR
LOVE
KITBULL
MEMORABLE
SISTER
Will
Win: HAIR LOVE (PC 3)
Best
Live Action Short Subject
BROTHERHOOD
NEFTA
FOOTBALL CLUB
THE
NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW
SARIA
A
SISTER
Will Win: THE NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW (PC 2)
