It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of
Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Below
are my predictions the 2016 Oscars®.
Best
Picture:
ARRIVAL
FENCES
HACKSAW
RIDGE
HELL OR HIGH
WATER
HIDDEN
FIGURES
LA LA
LAND
LION
MANCHESTER
BY THE SEA
MOONLIGHT
Unless
something very drastic happens, LA LA LAND will win Best Picture. Aside from the unintentionally risible HACKSAW RIDGE it’s the weakest option. But
Hollywood does love to congratulate itself.
MOONLIGHT would be my first choice.
Followed by HELL OR HIGH WATER.
Should
Win: MOONLIGHT
Will Win: LA LA LAND
Overlooked: ZOOTOPIA
Best
Director:
Damien
Chazelle, LA LA LAND
Mel
Gibson, HACKSAW RIDGE
Barry
Jenkins, MOONLIGHT
Kenneth Lonergan,
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Denis
Villeneuve, ARRIVAL
Damien
Chazelle will win for LA LA LAND, because he loves old school Hollywood
musicals. And Hollywood loves
itself. Enough said. A better choice would be Barry Jenkins for
MOONLIGHT.
Should Win: Barry Jenkins, MOONLIGHT
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, LA LA LAND
Overlooked: David Mackenzie, HELL OR HIGH WATER
Best
Actress:
Isabelle
Huppert, ELLE
Ruth
Negga, LOVING
Natalie
Portman, JACKIE
Emma
Stone, LA LA LAND
Meryl
Streep, FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
I wasn’t
able to see ELLE, so I can’t comment on Isabelle Huppert. Generally speaking this is a weak
category. As such, Emma Stone will win
for LA LA LAND, because Hollywood. Ruth
Negga was wonderful in LOVING. But it
was such a subtle performance in such a small movie, it doesn’t stand a chance.
Should
Win: Ruth Negga, LOVING
Will Win: Emma Stone, LA LA LAND
Overlooked: Amy Adams, ARRIVAL
Kate Beckinsale, LOVE & FRIENDSHIP
Kate Beckinsale, LOVE & FRIENDSHIP
Annette Bening, 20TH
CENTURY WOMEN
Taraji P. Henson, HIDDEN FIGURES
Taraji P. Henson, HIDDEN FIGURES
Best
Actor:
Casey
Affleck, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Andrew
Garfield, HACKSAW RIDGE
Ryan
Gosling, LA LA LAND
Viggo
Mortensen, CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
Denzel
Washington, FENCES
Up until about a month ago, most
would have said Casey Affleck was a lock for MANCHESTER BY THE SEA. Now, thanks to tons of bad press and a
less-than-pleasant demeanor, his chances have dropped. I still think his performance was the year’s best,
very closely followed by Denzel Washington for FENCES. I suspect Washington will win.
Should
Win: Casey Affleck, MANCHESTER BY THE
SEA
Will
Win: Denzel Washington, FENCES
Best
Supporting Actress:
Viola
Davis, FENCES
Naomie
Harris, MOONLIGHT
Nicole
Kidman, LION
Octavia
Spencer, HIDDEN FIGURES
Michelle
Williams, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Viola
Davis will finally win an Oscar® for her heart-wrenching work in FENCES. And although Davis deserves it, Michelle
Williams’ devastating performance in MANCHESTER BY THE SEA or Naomie Harris’
fearless turn in MOONLIGHT would have won in any other year.
Should and
Will Win: Viola Davis, FENCES
Best
Supporting Actor:
Mahershala
Ali, MOONLIGHT
Jeff
Bridges, HELL OR HIGH WATER
Lucas
Hedges, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Dev
Patel, LION
Michael
Shannon, NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
The
Golden Globes gave the award to Aaron Taylor-Johnson in NOCTURNAL ANIMALS, but
the Academy didn’t nominate him. The SAG
Awards recognized Mahershala Ali for MOONLIGHT.
So the question now is whether Michael Shannon’s nomination will change
the calculus. Shannon is wonderful, as
always, but likely won’t pull enough support from Ali to change things.
Should and
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, MOONLIGHT
Overlooked: Ben
Foster, HELL OR HIGH WATER
Sunny Pawar, LION
Sunny Pawar, LION
Best
Adapted Screenplay:
Luke
Davies, LION
Eric
Heisserer, ARRIVAL
Barry
Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney, MOONLIGHT
Allison
Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, HIDDEN FIGURES
August
Wilson, FENCES
Eric
Heisserer’s adaptation of Ted Chiang’s slim story “Story of Your Life” raises
stakes and expands action without dwarfing its more meditative theme, but Barry
Jenkins’ adaptation of Tarell Alvin McCraney’s unproduced play turns inner city
angst into a lyrical tone poem. He
should and will win.
Should and
Will Win: Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin
McCraney, MOONLIGHT
Overlooked: Tom
Ford, NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
Best
Original Screenplay:
Damien
Chazelle, LA LA LAND
Yorgos
Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou, THE LOBSTER
Kenneth
Lonergan, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Mike
Mills, 20th CENTURY WOMEN
Taylor
Sheridan, HELL OR HIGH WATER
Damien
Chazelle’s lead-footed venture into Hollywood nostalgia has a good chance to
win, despite being the weakest script in the bunch. Kenneth Lonergan’s devastating drama is the
only one that has a chance against it. Taylor Sheridan’s modern western about desperate,
misguided desperados is a very worthy entry.
However, THE LOBSTER is easily the most outlandish and original
screenplay this year but will have to settle for the nomination. The safer bet is LA LA LAND; the more
interesting bet is MANCHESTER BY THE SEA.
For fun I’ll go with the interesting bet. (For those who listened to the On The Page®
podcast, I have changed my prediction; I just couldn’t bring myself to let LA
LA LAND win on paper. Even if it does in
“real” life.)
Should
Win: Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis
Filippou, THE LOBSTER
Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan, MANCHESTER BY THE
SEA
Overlooked: Jared Bush & Phil Johnston, ZOOTOPIA
Best
Animated Film
KUBO
AND THE TWO STRINGS
MOANA
MY
LIFE AS A ZUCCHINI
THE
RED TURTLE
ZOOTOPIA
I
did not see MY LIFE AS A ZUCCHINI or THE RED TURTLE, alas. Of those I did see KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS
boasts the most artful animation; however, it suffers in its voice work. MOANA is terrific in a traditional way, with
classic animation and a marvelous musical score. Yet ZOOTOPIA combines clever animation with a
sharp script. The timely, resonant
message is icing on the cake. It
deserves to win and shall.
Should
and Will Win: ZOOTOPIA
Best
Foreign Language Film
LAND
OF MINE (Denmark)
A
MAN CALLED OVE (Sweden)
THE
SALESMAN (Iran)
TANNA
(Australia)
TONI
ERDMANN (Germany)
If
the Academy is feeling political they may give the award to THE SALESMAN. However, TONI ERDMANN made several critics’
Best of Year lists, so let’s go with that.
Will
Win: TONI ERDMANN (Germany)
Best
Documentary Feature
FIRE
AT SEA
I
AM NOT YOUR NEGRO
LIFE,
ANIMATED
O.J.:
MADE IN AMERICA
13TH
I
only saw I AM YOUR NEGRO, and it was remarkable. A must see.
However, I have heard that 13TH is equally compelling. Because 13TH was directed by Ana
DuVernay, who was snubbed for Best Director for SELMA some years back, there’s
a chance the Academy could try to make amends here. However, despite its imposing length, more
people probably saw O.J.: MADE IN AMERICA.
It will likely win.
Should
Win: I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO
Will
Win: O.J.: MADE IN AMERICA
Best
Cinematography
Grieg
Fraser, LION
James
Laxton, MOONLIGHT
Rodrigo
Prieto, SILENCE
Linus
Sandgren, LA LA LAND
Bradford
Young, ARRIVAL
Grieg
Fraser won the ASC award but that doesn’t always mean the Academy will think
similarly. Fraser deserves the Oscar®,
but I fear it will go to Linus Sandgren as part of the LA LA LAND
nostalgia-fest.
Should
Win: Greig Fraser, LION
Will
Win: Linus Sandgren, LA LA LAND
Best
Film Editing
Tom
Cross, LA LA LAND
John
Gilbert, HACKSAW RIDGE
Joi
McMillon, Nat Sanders, MOONLIGHT
Jake
Roberts, HELL OR HIGH WATER
Joe
Walker, ARRIVAL
Did
I mention how much Hollywood loves itself?
Even when there’s an hour-long dull stretch through the middle of a
movie? Despite that fact Tom Cross will
win for LA LA LAND. A better choice
would be Jake Roberts for the lean and mean editing of HELL OR HIGH WATER.
Should
Win: Jake Roberts, HELL OR HIGH WATER
Will
Win: Tom Cross, LA LAND
Best
Costume Design
Colleen
Atwood, FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
Consolata
Boyle, FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
Madeline
Fontaine, JACKIE
Joanna
Johnston, ALLIED
Mary
Zophres, LA LA LAND
Normally
one would look to a period piece for the winner of the costume award. The most obvious choices would be FLORENCE
FOSTER JENKINS or ALLIED. Personally I
prefer Madeline Fontaine’s subtle work, but I suspect Mary Zophres will ride
the LA LA LAND wave. Hollywood, thou art
a narcissist.
Should
Win: Madeline Fontaine, JACKIE
Will
Win: Mary Zophres, LA LA LAND
Best
Production Design
ARRIVAL
FANTASTIC
BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
HAIL,
CAESAR!
LA
LA LAND
PASSENGERS
The
Coen Brothers’ HAIL, CAESAR! was a puzzling concoction, but its production
design was immaculate. I hope I’m wrong,
but LA LA LAND is the likely victor.
Should
Win: HAIL, CAESAR!
Will
Win: LA LA LAND
Best
Original Score
Volker
Bertemann, Dustin O’Halloran, LION
Nicholas
Britell, MOONLIGHT
Justin
Hurwitz, LA LA LAND
Mica
Levi, JACKIE
Thomas
Newman, PASSENGERS
Bertemann
and O’Halloran’s sinuous LION score should prevail. However, nostalgia will have its revenge (again!)
as Justin Hurwitz’s tepid music for LA LA LAND carries the day.
Should
Win: Volker Bertemann, Dustin
O’Halloran, LION
Will
Win: Justin Hurwitz, LA LA LAND
Best
Original Song
“Audition
(The Fools Who Dream),” LA LA LAND
“Can’t
Stop the Feeling,” TROLLS
“City
of Stars,” LA LA LAND
“The
Empty Chair,” JIM: THE JAMES FOLEY STORY
“How
Far I’ll Go,” MOANA
Lin
Manuel Miranda knows how to write musical numbers, and his rousing “How Far
I’ll Go” from MOANA deserves the prize.
Once again, however, Hurwitz will triumph with his morose “City of
Stars” from LA LA LAND, because, hey, it’s a musical. (Psst, Academy members, so is MOANA.)
Should
Win: “How Far I’ll Go,” MOANA
Will
Win: “City of Stars,” LA LA LAND
Best
Sound Mixing
ARRIVAL
LA LA LAND
HACKSAW RIDGE
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
13 HOURS
Whether deserved or not the nominated “musical” inevitably gets the
sound mixing award. Hence, LA LA LAND’s
win. ARRIVAL is head and tentacles
better.
Should
Win: ARRIVAL
Will
Win: LA LA LAND
Best
Sound Editing
ARRIVAL
DEEPWATER
HORIZON
HACKSAW
RIDGE
LA
LA LAND
SULLY
There’s
a good chance this will continue LA LA LAND’s landslide. However, this may be the chance the Academy
needs to give HACKSAW RIDGE some undeserved love.
Me? I prefer ARRIVAL.
Should
Win: ARRIVAL
Will
Win: HACKSAW RIDGE
Best
Visual Effects
DEEPWATER
HORIZON
DOCTOR
STRANGE
THE
JUNGLE BOOK
KUBO
AND THE TWO STRINGS
ROGUE
ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
I
only saw KUBO and ROGUE ONE. Of the two
I preferred ROGUE ONE. Just about
everyone I know who saw it loved THE JUNGLE BOOK. What the heck. It’s worth a shot.
Should
Win: ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
Will
Win: THE JUNGLE BOOK
Best
Makeup
A
MAN CALLED OVE
STAR
TREK BEYOND
SUICIDE
SQUAD
This
seems like a particularly weak year in the category. I only saw STAR TREK BEYOND, so let’s go with
that.
Should
and Will Win: STAR TREK BEYOND
Best
Documentary Short Subject
EXTREMIS
4.1
MILES
JOE’S
VIOLIN
WATANI:
MY HOMELAND
THE
WHITE HELMET
No
clue, so I’ll guess.
Will
Win: EXTREMIS
Best
Animated Short Subject
BLIND
VAYSHA
BORROWED
TIME
PEAR
CIDER AND CIGARETTES
PEARL
PIPER
I’m
guessing.
Will
Win: PIPER
Best
Live Action Short Subject
ENNEMIS
INTERIEURS
LA
FEMME ET LE TGV
SILENT
NIGHTS
SING
(MINDENKI)
TIMECODE
I’m
guessing again.
No comments:
Post a Comment