THE POPE’S 2012 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS -- PART 2

This year, thanks to the grim slate of Oscar contenders, torture and degradation go mainstream.  From the indignities of aging in AMOUR, to the Iran hostage crisis in ARGO, to the cruelties of slavery in DJANGO UNCHAINED, to Russell Crowe’s singing in LES MISÉRABLES, to depictions of actual torture in ZERO DARK THIRTY, the Academy seems determined to distract us from the self-important presentations, insufferable acceptance speeches and endless musical numbers we will inevitably endure during the telecast.

Predicting the predilections of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is an annual ritual.  The challenges are myriad in even the most straightforward of years.  And this year is anything but straightforward.  When Oscar® nominations were announced on January 10, 2013, snubbing Ben Affleck for Best Director, there was a seismic shift in award season momentum.  Call it the ARGO Effect.  Now, that movie, well liked but never considered front-runner material, has quickly become the film to beat.  Until that fateful date the producers of LINCOLN were practicing their acceptance speeches.  Now, to quote Cole Porter, anything goes.

Nevertheless there are touchstones to guide you through the chaos.  Close observers know that, in almost every instance, the Academy wants its Best Picture winner to also win the most awards overall.  Using this truism as a guide, the ripple effect will likely influence certain technical awards, definitely Adapted Screenplay, and possibly Supporting Actor – the latter made more possible by the lack of a clear front-runner.

That said, this year has the potential for more upsets than any year since 2002.  Therefore, choose carefully (but not too carefully) and wisely (but intuitively), and you may walk away with the Oscar® pool winnings.

And the nominees for Best Picture are:

AMOUR

ARGO

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

DJANGO UNCHAINED

LES MISÉRABLES

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

ZERO DARK THIRTY

Before the nominations came out LINCOLN was the presumptive favorite.  Thanks to the Affleck Best Director snub, ARGO is a lock.  Director Bigelow was likewise snubbed.  However, thanks to the faux torture scandal ZERO DARK THIRTY has been removed from serious Best Picture contention.  BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD has the David vs. Goliath factor, LIFE OF PI has the life-affirming factor, and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK has the Weinstein Oscar®-machine factor.  None will vanquish the Academy members’ need to tell Affleck how sorry they are with a Best Picture award for ARGO.

Should Win:     ZERO DARK THIRTY

Will Win:          ARGO

Overlooked:    MOONRISE KINGDOM

And the nominees for Best Director are:

Michael Haneke, AMOUR

Ang Lee, LIFE OF PI

David O. Russell, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Steven Spielberg, LINCOLN

Benh Zeitlin, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

This one’s a tough call.  Normally, we could use the DGA Award and/or Golden Globes as a guide.  Since Affleck won both of those and isn’t nominated here, we must use other rationale.  Spielberg was the frontrunner, but the ARGO Effect seems to have damaged LINCOLN the most.  And he’s won the prize twice before (for SCHINDLER’S LIST and SAVING PRIVATE RYAN).  Lee also won for BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN.  I think the Academy will go with someone who hasn’t won previously.  Zeitlin is too new.  Haneke’s film is too French (which is interesting, considering he’s Austrian).  I’m going out on a limb and predict that Russell takes this horserace, primarily because of the strength of the Weinstein Oscar® machine.  But, then again, it may be saving its juice for Best Actress.

Should Win:     Michael Haneke, AMOUR

Will Win:          David O. Russell, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Overlooked:    Ben Affleck, ARGO

Kathryn Bigelow, ZERO DARK THIRTY

And the nominees for Best Actress are:

Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY

Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Emmanuelle Riva, AMOUR

Quvenzhane Wallis, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

Naomi Watts, THE IMPOSSIBLE

Here is another category that could easily go several ways.  Your safest best would be Lawrence.  She’s the closest thing to a frontrunner.  She won the SAG and Golden Globe (Comedy), plus she’s got the Weinsteins behind her.  Chastain would be a reasonable bet, too, as she won the Golden Globe (Drama); but the torture “scandal” could take her out of the running.  Riva, however, was not a nominee for either the Golden Globes or SAG Awards, so she’s the wild card here.  More importantly, she gives the kind of performance the Academy loves.  I think it will be a close vote and Riva squeaks out a win.  But if Lawrence gets called to the stage I wouldn’t be surprised.

Should and Will Win:   Emmanuelle Riva, AMOUR

Overlooked:                Rachel Weisz, THE DEEP BLUE SEA

And the nominees for Best Actor are:

Bradley Cooper, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN

Hugh Jackman, LES MISÉRABLES

Joaquin Phoenix, THE MASTER

Denzel Washington, FLIGHT

Neither Jackman nor Phoenix belongs in this category; the former mediocre, and the latter too mannered.  Cooper is very good in a terrific movie, while Washington is terrific in a not very good movie.  However, if Day-Lewis doesn’t win this, I will be shocked.  I can’t even imagine who would get the award if not him.  (Now watch this become the upset category of the evening.)

Should and Will Win:   Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN

Overlooked:                Jamie Foxx, DJANGO UNCHAINED

Jean-Louis Trintignant, AMOUR

And the nominees for Best Supporting Actress are:

Amy Adams, THE MASTER

Sally Field, LINCOLN

Anne Hathaway, LES MISÉRABLES

Helen Hunt, THE SESSIONS

Jacki Weaver, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Adams is great, but the movie (again) is a difficult one.  Weaver is wonderful but doesn’t really stand out.  Field gives, to my mind, the best supporting performance in the field (okay, I didn’t see Hunt, so sue me).  She’s going to lose to Hathaway, however, because the Academy must give the award to someone who (1) lost weight and/or (2) sings and cries through one long, snot-filled, take.  I also predict Hathaway’s acceptance speech is the most insufferable of the evening.  I hope I’m wrong.

Should Win:     Sally Field, LINCOLN

Will Win:          Anne Hathaway, LES MISÉRABLES

Overlooked:    Isabelle Huppert, AMOUR

And the nominees for Best Supporting Actor are:

Alan Arkin, ARGO

Robert De Niro, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Philip Seymour Hoffman, THE MASTER

Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN

Christoph Waltz, DJANGO UNCHAINED

This category is another one that could go a number of ways.  Hoffman is the long shot because he’s in a problematic film.  De Niro returns to form after a long dry spell, but his great performance is but one in a very strong ensemble.  Arkin is marvelous; but I’ve seen this before, and I suspect the Academy has, too.  He could, nevertheless, ride to victory on the ARGO Effect.  Jones and Waltz are closest to frontrunner status.  Jones won the SAG Award, and Waltz won the Golden Globe.  Jones won almost twenty years ago for THE FUGITIVE, and Waltz won a mere three years ago for INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, so the Academy may hesitate to give it to him again so soon.  Your best bests are Arkin, Jones or Waltz.  I’m going with Jones.

Should and Will Win:   Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN

Overlooked:                Matthew Macfadyen, ANNA KARENINA

And the nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are:

Lucy Alibar & Ben Zeitlin, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

Tony Kushner, LINCOLN

David Magee, LIFE OF PI

David O. Russell, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Chris Terrio, ARGO

Considering the strength of the field, this would be tough to predict under normal conditions, with a lean toward Kushner’s LINCOLN adaptation.  Thanks to the ARGO Effect, however, you would be wise to go with Chris Terrio.  For a more in-depth discussion of this year’s best adapted Oscar®-nominated screenplays, please go to the On the Page® podcast available at https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-page-screenwriting/id262077408.

Should Win:     David O. Russell, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Will Win:          Chris Terrio, ARGO

Overlooked:    Tom Stoppard, ANNA KARENINA

And the nominees for Best Original Screenplay are:

Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, MOONRISE KINGDOM

Mark Boal, ZERO DARK THIRTY

John Gatins, FLIGHT

Michael Haneke, AMOUR

Quentin Tarantino, DJANGO UNCHAINED

This one has a potential for surprise.  Thanks to his WGA win Boal could be considered the frontrunner.  However, neither Haneke nor Tarantino were nominated for a WGA, so they could split the vote or one or the other win outright.  An argument could me made that the torture “scandal” has tarnished ZERO DARK THIRTY’s chances, but one could also be made that the directorial snub of Kathryn Bigelow makes its victory here more likely.  I’m going with the latter scenario.  For a more in-depth discussion of this year’s original Oscar®-nominated screenplays, please go to the On the Page® podcast available at https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-page-screenwriting/id262077408.

Should and Will Win:   Mark Boal, ZERO DARK THIRTY

Overlooked:                Rian Johnson, LOOPER

This wraps up The Pope's Picks for 2012.  Thanks for reading this far, and we'll see you in 2013.