Every year yours truly matches wits with (or at least tries to think like) members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This year my predictions have been divided into two parts. Part 1 includes the categories you don't care about (i.e., technical awards, documentaries, foreign film, etc.). However, if you're entered into an Oscar® pool, these categories could mean the difference between victory and defeat. Below is Part 1 of my wills and shoulds for 2011 (and a handful of glaring omissions):
Best Animated Film
A CAT IN PARIS
CHICO & RITA
KUNG FU PANDA 2
PUSS IN BOOTS
RANGO
I’ve only seen RANGO, and I didn’t much care for it. That said, I suspect it will win. But it begs the question, why wasn’t THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN nominated?
Will Win: RANGO
Overlooked: THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
Best Foreign Language Film
BULLHEAD (Belgium)
FOOTNOTE (Israel)
IN DARKNESS (Poland)
MONSIEUR LAZHAR (Canada)
A SEPARATION (Iran)
Of the nominees I only saw A SEPARATION, but I can’t imagine a better foreign film in this batch. Keep in mind, however, that the Academy does love its Holocaust dramas, so IN DARKNESS may be a surprise winner.
Should and Will Win: A SEPARATION
Best Documentary Feature
HELL AND BACK AGAIN
IF A TREE FALLS: A STORY OF THE EARTH LIBERATION FRONT
PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
PINA
UNDEFEATED
I haven’t seen any of them and haven’t a clue. A friend of mine saw PARADISE LOST 3 and liked it. So, what the heck, let’s go with that.
Will Win: PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
Best Cinematography
Jeff Cronenweth, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Janusz Kaminski, WAR HORSE
Emmanuel Lubezki, THE TREE OF LIFE
Robert Richardson, HUGO
Guillaume Schiffman, THE ARTIST
There are some great looking movies in this category (though I didn’t see WAR HORSE). But let’s face it -- Lubezki was robbed in 2007 for CHILDREN OF MEN. He deserves it here, and this time he will win. If Wally Pfister hadn’t won last year for INCEPTION, he would (and should) have been on the list this year for MONEYBALL.
Should and Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, THE TREE OF LIFE
Overlooked: Wally Pfister, MONEYBALL
Best Film Editing
Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Thelma Schoonmaker, HUGO
Christopher Tellefsen, MONEYBALL
Kevin Tent, THE DESCENDENTS
Baxter and Wall won last year. So despite respectable work here, they will not win. HUGO was toooo looooong. If it were up to me Tellefsen would win. I think the Academy will honor Bion and Hazanavicius here.
Should Win: Christopher Tellefsen, MONEYBALL
Will Win: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Best Costume Design
Mark Bridges, THE ARTIST
Lisy Christl, ANONYMOUS
Michael O’Connor, JANE EYRE
Arianne Phillips, W.E.
Sandy Powell, HUGO
We have no contemporary costuming to eliminate here, because all are period. Elizabethan costumes are popular with the Academy, so Christl would be my favorite to win but that the movie was laughably bad (or so I heard). So the rest being equal, it comes down to perceived front-runners THE ARTIST and HUGO. Either would be a respectable Will Win choice, but I’m going to match it with my Should Win choice, Powell.
Should and Will Win: Sandy Powell, HUGO
Best Art Direction
THE ARTIST
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
WAR HORSE
HUGO was gorgeous to look at and deserves to cash in with a gold statuette.
Should and Will Win: HUGO
Best Original Score
Ludovic Bource, THE ARTIST
Alberto Iglesias, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Howard Shore, HUGO
John Williams, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
John Williams, WAR HORSE
Howard Shore won in this category twice before for two of the LORD OF THE RINGS movies, so his chances here are remote. HUGO is a gorgeous score, but Iglesias’ is better. His score taps into Cold War paranoia and yet feels so ‘70s. His would be my choice. I don’t think Williams will win for either score, but I wouldn’t put it past the Academy. So that leaves Bource.
Should Win: Alberto Iglesias, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Will Win: Ludovic Bource, THE ARTIST
Best Original Song
“Man or Muppet”, Bret McKenzie, THE MUPPETS
“Real in Rio”, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett, RIO
I didn’t see either movie. But I love the Muppets, and I adore Bret McKenzie from The Flight of the Conchords. Let’s go with his song.
Will Win: “Man or Muppet”, Bret McKenzie, THE MUPPETS
Best Sound Mixing
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
MONEYBALL
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE
I read somewhere that every year a war movie was nominated for sound mixing, it won. So I predict WAR HORSE will win. I would prefer MONEYBALL, because the sound just invites you into the world of baseball. I guess I’m just a sucker for baseball.
Should Win: MONEYBALL
Will Win: WAR HORSE
Best Sound Editing
DRIVE
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE
The sound effects in THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO creeped me out. I would have to pick that for my favorite. I think the Academy won’t want HUGO to go away without another Oscar®, so they’ll give it this one.
Should Win: THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Will Win: HUGO
Best Visual Effects
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2
HUGO
REAL STEEL
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
This is the last chance for the Academy to recognize the HARRY POTTER franchise, and I suspect they’ll do it here. But I would prefer if the PLANET OF THE APES prequel took the prize.
Should Win: RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Will Win: HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2
Best Makeup
ALBERT NOBBS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2
THE IRON LADY
I only saw the HARRY POTTER movie, so by default that would be my preference. Yet there’s this niggling doubt that it will win two awards this year. That leaves the old age makeup of THE IRON LADY and the drag makeup of ALBERT NOBBS. The latter sounds like something that could win. Let’s go with that.
Should Win: HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2
Will Win: ALBERT NOBBS
Best Documentary Short Subject
THE BARBER OF BIRMINGHAM: FOOT SOLDIER OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT
GOD IS THE BIGGER ELVIS
INCIDENT IN NEW BAGHDAD
SAVING FACE
THE TSUNAMI AND THE CHERRY BLOSSOM
I haven’t seen any of them. But THE TSUNAMI AND THE CHERRY BLOSSOM involves the devastating Japanese tsunami from last year and seems likely to garner the votes.
Will Win: THE TSUNAMI AND THE CHERRY BLOSSOM
Best Animated Short Subject
DIMANCHE/SUNDAY
THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE
LA LUNA
A MORNING STROLL
WILD LIFE
No clue, but I hear LA LUNA is good.
Will Win: LA LUNA
Best Live Action Short Subject
PENTECOST
RAJU
THE SHORE
TIME FREAK
TUBA ATLANTIC
See above. Let’s go with THE SHORE.
Will Win: THE SHORE
Join me for a live, Facebook discussion of this year's Oscar® at 6:00pm PST on Saturday, February 25, 2012, at The Pope's Picks -- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Pope group. There I will reveal my predictions in the major categories. And, if you join the group before the presentation, you will have the opportunity to vote for the coveted Rosary Award where you, gentle reader, get to pick your favorites in each of those self-same major categories. I hope to see you online then.
Even if you can't join us I will post Part 2 of The Pope's 2011 Oscar® Predictions shortly after the presentation on Saturday.
Thank you and have a happy Oscar® viewing.
No comments:
Post a Comment