Another year, another Oscar® season. It’s time to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Below are my predictions for the 2024 Oscars®. To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5. 1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.
And the nominees are:
Best Picture:
ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PEREZ
I’M STILL HERE
NICKEL BOYS
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED
The Best Picture slate lacks a clear frontrunner this year. With rare exception most nominees could be described as problematic for a Best Picture nominee. The three most “normal” nominees would be THE BRUTALIST, a period epic about the immigrant experience post-World War II; A COMPLETE UNKNOWN, a biopic about Bob Dylan’s transition to electric; and CONCLAVE, a twisty political thriller set in the Vatican. THE BRUTALIST’s length (three-and-a-half hours), along with its muddled final act and overt pretension are strikes against it. A COMPLETE UNKNOWN may be too straightforward and the subject too mercurial for its own good. CONCLAVE has the best chance of the three but has an ending that may be too implausible for most to take seriously. EMILIA PEREZ is strange and outrageous enough to garner multiple nominations but won’t seal the Best Picture deal. WICKED is certainly popular, but the choice to bifurcate the story left this viewer unsatisfied. NICKEL BOYS is powerful but the film’s point of view is off-putting. The closest thing to a frontrunner is the unlikely ANORA, about a sex worker who marries the wayward son of wealthy Russian oligarchs and chaos ensues. It earned a surprise win at the Producers Guild and seems to have momentum. That said, thanks to ranked choice voting CONCLAVE could sneak in for the win. I still lean toward ANORA, but confidence is not high. My personal favorite is I’M STILL HERE, Walter Salles’ beautifully-realized drama about a family torn apart by the Brazilian dictatorship circa 1970.
Should Win: I’M STILL HERE
Will Win: ANORA (PCI 1)
Overlooked: A REAL PAIN
SEPTEMBER 5
Best Director:
Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Sean Baker, ANORA
Brady Corbet, THE BRUTALIST
Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE
James Mangold, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Brady Corbet was the initial favorite for THE BRUTALIST. I suspect, however, that upon closer examination voters have seen through the film’s directorial pretensions. Sean Baker was the surprise winner of the Directors Guild prize for ANORA and is now the Oscar favorite. Coralie Fargeat was an unlikely (yet deserved) nominee for THE SUBSTANCE, but its pitch black, gruesome satire will have to settle for the nomination. I would love to see Jacques Audiard win for his truly bonkers, yet involving Brechtian opera – the most original and audacious directorial effort this year.
Should Win: Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win: Sean Baker, ANORA (PCI 3)
Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo, WICKED
Karla Sofia Gascon, EMILIA PEREZ
Mikey Madison, ANORA
Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
Fernanda Torres, I’M STILL HERE
Fernanda Torres and Mikey Madison are the strongest performances in this category. If Oscar rewarded solely on merit, the award for Best Actress would be between these two. I would choose Torres. But Oscar loves a good story, and Demi Moore is this year’s good story. A comeback performance. An underrated actress for oh these many years. Despite THE SUBSTANCE being a dark horror comedy with some of the most horrific effects to splatter on screen this year, Moore will probably win.
Should Win: Fernanda Torres, I’M STILL HERE
Will Win: Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE (PCI 3)
Overlooked: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, HARD TRUTHS
Best Actor:
Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Timothee Chalamet, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Colman Domingo, SING SING
Ralph Fiennes, CONCLAVE
Sebastian Stan, THE APPRENTICE
Adrien Brody gives a towering performance in the oversized epic THE BRUTALIST, but Timothee Chalamet (surprise winner of this year’s SAG award) could pull an upset in James Mangold’s rote biopic of Bob Dylan. Chalamet seems to have momentum and may give A COMPLETE UNKNOWN its only win of the evening.
Should Win: Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Will Win: Timothee Chalamet, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN (PCI 1)
Best Supporting Actress:
Monica Barbaro, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Ariana Grande, WICKED
Felicity Jones, THE BRUTALIST
Isabella Rossellini, CONCLAVE
Zoe Saldana, EMILIA PEREZ
Many might argue that Zoe Saldana is a co-lead in EMILIA PEREZ. I would agree. And yet her performance is so electric, so riveting, so fearless, that no one will deny that she deserves Oscar gold.
Should and Will Win: Zoe Saldana, EMILIA PEREZ (PC 5)
Best Supporting Actor:
Yura Borisov, ANORA
Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
Edward Norton, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Guy Pearce, THE BRUTALIST
Jeremy Strong, THE APPRENTICE
There are many strong performances in this category. Yura Borisov plays an unexpectedly sensitive soul providing muscle for a Russian oligarch in ANORA. Guy Pearce is searing as a ruthless, exploitive mid-20th century businessman in THE BRUTALIST. But this year’s Supporting Actor award will go to Kieran Culkin in Jesse Eisenberg’s sensitively written A REAL PAIN.
Should and Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN (PC 5)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, SING SING
James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, NICKEL BOYS
Peter Straughan, CONCLAVE
Jacques Audiard’s operatic family crime drama EMILIA PEREZ is my favorite, but I’d put my money on Peter Straughn’s CONCLAVE. Both SING SING and NICKEL BOYS are worthwhile nominees. Check them out if you can. If you’re a Bob Dylan fan, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN has lots of great music but not much insight into the reclusive musician. For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Adapted Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2025 podcast (link after Best Original Screenplay prediction below).
Should Win: Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win: Peter Straughan, CONCLAVE (PCI 4)
Overlooked: Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega, I’M STILL HERE
Best Original Screenplay:
Sean Baker, ANORA
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David, SEPTEMBER 5
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold, THE BRUTALIST
Jesse Eisenberg, A REAL PAIN
Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE
I feel reasonably confident that Sean Baker’s ANORA will win. That said, Jesse Eisenberg’s A REAL PAIN, a small but sensitively handled movie, could sneak in under the radar. I liked the first two hours of THE BRUTALIST, but the last hour lost me. If I were handing out awards, my vote would be for SEPTEMBER 5, a tense, economical recreation of the tragic 1972 Munich Summer Olympics. For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Original Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2025 podcast (link after prediction below).
Should Win: Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David, SEPTEMBER 5
Will Win: Sean Baker, ANORA (PCI 2)
Overlooked: Megan Park, MY OLD ASS
https://onthepage.libsyn.com/925-oscar-talk-2025
Best Animated Film:
FLOW
INSIDE OUT 2
MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
THE WILD ROBOT
THE WILD ROBOT is considered the frontrunner in this category. I found it enjoyable but uninspiring. INSIDE OUT 2 is better but still a far cry from its exceptional predecessor. Everyone I’ve spoken with who’s seen FLOW has raved. For this reason I will root for FLOW but vote for THE WILD ROBOT to win.
Should Win: FLOW
Will Win: THE WILD ROBOT (PCI 2)
Best International Feature:
EMILIA PEREZ (France)
FLOW (Latvia)
THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE (Denmark)
I’M STILL HERE (Brazil)
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG (Germany)
Normally I would predict an EMILIA PEREZ win in this category, with its multiple nominations, including Best Picture. But the Academy will want to give something to I’M STILL HERE (I think they should give more), and this is the most likely category to do so.
Should and Will Win: I’M STILL HERE (Brazil) (PCI 3)
Best Documentary Feature:
BLACK BOX DIARIES
NO OTHER LAND
PORCELAIN WAR
SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP D’ETAT
SUGARCANE
The only film I saw in this category was SUGARCANE, about the trauma caused by Catholic Church-run Indian schools throughout North America in the first half of the 20th Century. It was powerful. However, my understanding is that NO OTHER LAND and PORCELAIN WAR are the most likely winners. I’m leaning toward NO OTHER LAND.
Should Win: SUGARCANE
Will Win: NO OTHER LAND (PCI 2)
Best Cinematography:
Jarin Blaschke, NOSFERATU
Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST
Grieg Fraser, DUNE: PART TWO
Paul Guilhaume, EMILIA PEREZ
Edward Lachman, MARIA
THE BRUTALIST is going to win here, even though Grieg Fraser surpasses himself with his work in DUNE: PART TWO.
Should Win: Grieg Fraser, DUNE: PART TWO
Will Win: Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST (PC 4)
Best Film Editing:
Sean Baker, ANORA
Nick Emerson, CONCLAVE
David Jancso, THE BRUTALIST
Myron Kerstein, WICKED
Juliette Welfling, EMILIA PEREZ
The award will come down to either CONCLAVE or ANORA. I feel CONCLAVE is a stronger choice, but if ANORA picks up Best Picture momentum (which it appears to be doing) it may win this category as well. I’m going with CONCLAVE.
Should and Will Win: Nick Emerson, CONCLAVE (PC 2)
Best Costume Design:
Lisy Christi, CONCLAVE
David Crossman, Janty Yates, GLADIATOR II
Linda Muir, David Schwed, NOSFERATU
Arianne Phillips, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Paul Tazewell, WICKED
Paul Tazewell’s WICKED costumes are delightful. He will win.
Should and Will Win: Paul Tazewell, WICKED (PC 4)
Best Production Design:
THE BRUTALIST
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
NOSFERATU
WICKED
WICKED will score another technical win here, but DUNE: PART TWO was my favorite.
Should Win: DUNE: PART TWO
Will Win: WICKED (PC 3)
Best Original Score:
Volker Bertelmann, CONCLAVE
Daniel Blumberg, THE BRUTALIST
Kris Bowers, THE WILD ROBOT
Clement Ducol and Camille, EMILIA PEREZ
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, WICKED
Bertelmann’s score for CONCLAVE is unnecessarily bombastic; he still thinks he’s scoring ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT. Blumberg’s score for THE BRUTALIST is pretentious. It won’t stop it from winning. My choice would be Clement Ducol and Camille’s score for EMILA PEREZ.
Should Win: Clement Ducol and Camille, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg, THE BRUTALIST (PC 3)
Overlooked: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, CHALLENGERS
Best Original Song:
“El Mal”, EMILIA PEREZ
“The Journey”, THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
“Like A Bird”, SING SING
“Mi Camino”, EMILIA PEREZ
“Never Too Late”, ELTON JOHN: NEVER TOO LATE
My favorite musical number from EMILIA PEREZ was “El Mal.” Happily, it is the likely winner.
Should and Will Win: “El Mal”, EMILIA PEREZ (PC 5)
Best Sound:
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PEREZ
WICKED
THE WILD ROBOT
DUNE: PART TWO should win unless WICKED pulls an upset.
Should and Will Win: DUNE: PART TWO (PC 2)
Best Visual Effects:
ALIEN: ROMULUS
BETTER MAN
DUNE: PART TWO
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
WICKED
This feels like a DUNE: PART TWO lock.
Should and Will Win: DUNE: PART TWO (PC 4)
Best Makeup:
A DIFFERENT MAN
EMILIA PEREZ
NOSFERATU
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED
This is the one award that THE SUBSTANCE deserves.
Should and Will Win: THE SUBSTANCE (PC 4)
Best Documentary Short Subject:
DEATH BY NUMBERS
I AM READY, WARDEN
INCIDENT
INSTRUMENTS OF A BEATING HEART
THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA
I did not see DEATH BY NUMBERS. Of the others, my favorite was INCIDENT, made with policy body cam footage during a fatal encounter on a Chicago street in 2018. I AM READY, WARDEN is the frontrunner, but THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA, about Orin O’Brien, the first full time female member of the New York Philharmonic, is delightful and could upset.
Should Win: INCIDENT
Will Win: I AM READY, WARDEN (PC 2)
Best Animated Short Subject:
BEAUTIFUL MEN
IN THE SHADOW OF THE CYPRESS
MAGIC CANDIES
WANDER TO WONDER
YUCK!
I didn’t see any of these. I hear this will likely come down to BEAUTIFUL MEN or YUCK!
Will Win: YUCK! (PC 1)
Best Live Action Short Subject:
A LIEN
ANUJA
I’M NOT A ROBOT
THE LAST RANGER
THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT
I did not see A LIEN or THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT. I enjoyed I’M NOT A ROBOT, a bit of existential dread that we experience almost every day. THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT is favored to win, though A LIEN is close on its heels.
Should Win: I’M NOT A ROBOT
Will Win: THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT (PC 2)
