THE POPE'S 2024 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

Another year, another Oscar® season.  It’s time to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Below are my predictions for the 2024 Oscars®.  To assist with your own predictions, I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Very confident, 5=All but certain.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PEREZ
I’M STILL HERE
NICKEL BOYS
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED

The Best Picture slate lacks a clear frontrunner this year.  With rare exception most nominees could be described as problematic for a Best Picture nominee.  The three most “normal” nominees would be THE BRUTALIST, a period epic about the immigrant experience post-World War II; A COMPLETE UNKNOWN, a biopic about Bob Dylan’s transition to electric; and CONCLAVE, a twisty political thriller set in the Vatican.  THE BRUTALIST’s length (three-and-a-half hours), along with its muddled final act and overt pretension are strikes against it.   A COMPLETE UNKNOWN may be too straightforward and the subject too mercurial for its own good. CONCLAVE has the best chance of the three but has an ending that may be too implausible for most to take seriously.  EMILIA PEREZ is strange and outrageous enough to garner multiple nominations but won’t seal the Best Picture deal.  WICKED is certainly popular, but the choice to bifurcate the story left this viewer unsatisfied.  NICKEL BOYS is powerful but the film’s point of view is off-putting.  The closest thing to a frontrunner is the unlikely ANORA, about a sex worker who marries the wayward son of wealthy Russian oligarchs and chaos ensues.  It earned a surprise win at the Producers Guild and seems to have momentum.  That said, thanks to ranked choice voting CONCLAVE could sneak in for the win.  I still lean toward ANORA, but confidence is not high.  My personal favorite is I’M STILL HERE, Walter Salles’ beautifully-realized drama about a family torn apart by the Brazilian dictatorship circa 1970.

Should Win:    I’M STILL HERE
Will Win:        ANORA (PCI 1)
Overlooked:    A REAL PAIN
SEPTEMBER 5

Best Director:

Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Sean Baker, ANORA
Brady Corbet, THE BRUTALIST
Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE
James Mangold, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

Brady Corbet was the initial favorite for THE BRUTALIST.  I suspect, however, that upon closer examination voters have seen through the film’s directorial pretensions.  Sean Baker was the surprise winner of the Directors Guild prize for ANORA and is now the Oscar favorite.  Coralie Fargeat was an unlikely (yet deserved) nominee for THE SUBSTANCE, but its pitch black, gruesome satire will have to settle for the nomination.  I would love to see Jacques Audiard win for his truly bonkers, yet involving Brechtian opera – the most original and audacious directorial effort this year.

Should Win:    Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win:        Sean Baker, ANORA (PCI 3)

Best Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, WICKED
Karla Sofia Gascon, EMILIA PEREZ
Mikey Madison, ANORA
Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
Fernanda Torres, I’M STILL HERE

Fernanda Torres and Mikey Madison are the strongest performances in this category.  If Oscar rewarded solely on merit, the award for Best Actress would be between these two.  I would choose Torres.  But Oscar loves a good story, and Demi Moore is this year’s good story.  A comeback performance.  An underrated actress for oh these many years.  Despite THE SUBSTANCE being a dark horror comedy with some of the most horrific effects to splatter on screen this year, Moore will probably win.

Should Win:    Fernanda Torres, I’M STILL HERE
Will Win:        Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE (PCI 3)
Overlooked:    Marianne Jean-Baptiste, HARD TRUTHS

Best Actor:

Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Timothee Chalamet, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Colman Domingo, SING SING
Ralph Fiennes, CONCLAVE
Sebastian Stan, THE APPRENTICE

Adrien Brody gives a towering performance in the oversized epic THE BRUTALIST, but Timothee Chalamet (surprise winner of this year’s SAG award) could pull an upset in James Mangold’s rote biopic of Bob Dylan.  Chalamet seems to have momentum and may give A COMPLETE UNKNOWN its only win of the evening.

Should Win:    Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Will Win:        Timothee Chalamet, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN (PCI 1)

Best Supporting Actress:

Monica Barbaro, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Ariana Grande, WICKED
Felicity Jones, THE BRUTALIST
Isabella Rossellini, CONCLAVE
Zoe Saldana, EMILIA PEREZ

Many might argue that Zoe Saldana is a co-lead in EMILIA PEREZ.  I would agree.  And yet her performance is so electric, so riveting, so fearless, that no one will deny that she deserves Oscar gold.

Should and Will Win:    Zoe Saldana, EMILIA PEREZ (PC 5)

Best Supporting Actor:

Yura Borisov, ANORA
Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
Edward Norton, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Guy Pearce, THE BRUTALIST
Jeremy Strong, THE APPRENTICE

There are many strong performances in this category.  Yura Borisov plays an unexpectedly sensitive soul providing muscle for a Russian oligarch in ANORA.  Guy Pearce is searing as a ruthless, exploitive mid-20th century businessman in THE BRUTALIST.  But this year’s Supporting Actor award will go to Kieran Culkin in Jesse Eisenberg’s sensitively written A REAL PAIN.

Should and Will Win:    Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN (PC 5)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, SING SING
James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, NICKEL BOYS
Peter Straughan, CONCLAVE

Jacques Audiard’s operatic family crime drama EMILIA PEREZ is my favorite, but I’d put my money on Peter Straughn’s CONCLAVE.  Both SING SING and NICKEL BOYS are worthwhile nominees.  Check them out if you can.  If you’re a Bob Dylan fan,  A COMPLETE UNKNOWN has lots of great music but not much insight into the reclusive musician.  For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Adapted Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2025 podcast (link after Best Original Screenplay prediction below).

Should Win:    Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win:        Peter Straughan, CONCLAVE (PCI 4)
Overlooked:    Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega, I’M STILL HERE

Best Original Screenplay:

Sean Baker, ANORA
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David, SEPTEMBER 5
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold, THE BRUTALIST
Jesse Eisenberg, A REAL PAIN
Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE

I feel reasonably confident that Sean Baker’s ANORA will win.  That said, Jesse Eisenberg’s A REAL PAIN, a small but sensitively handled movie, could sneak in under the radar.  I liked the first two hours of THE BRUTALIST, but the last hour lost me.  If I were handing out awards, my vote would be for SEPTEMBER 5, a tense, economical recreation of the tragic 1972 Munich Summer Olympics.  For a more wide-ranging discussion of the Original Screenplay nominees, please listen to Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar® 2025 podcast (link after prediction below).

Should Win:    Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David, SEPTEMBER 5
Will Win:        Sean Baker, ANORA (PCI 2)
Overlooked:    Megan Park, MY OLD ASS

https://onthepage.libsyn.com/925-oscar-talk-2025

Best Animated Film:

FLOW
INSIDE OUT 2
MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
THE WILD ROBOT

THE WILD ROBOT is considered the frontrunner in this category.  I found it enjoyable but uninspiring.  INSIDE OUT 2 is better but still a far cry from its exceptional predecessor.  Everyone I’ve spoken with who’s seen FLOW has raved.  For this reason I will root for FLOW but vote for THE WILD ROBOT to win.

Should Win:    FLOW
Will Win:        THE WILD ROBOT (PCI 2)

Best International Feature:

EMILIA PEREZ (France)
FLOW (Latvia)
THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE (Denmark)
I’M STILL HERE (Brazil)
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG (Germany)

Normally I would predict an EMILIA PEREZ win in this category, with its multiple nominations, including Best Picture.  But the Academy will want to give something to I’M STILL HERE (I think they should give more), and this is the most likely category to do so.

Should and Will Win:    I’M STILL HERE (Brazil) (PCI 3)

Best Documentary Feature:

BLACK BOX DIARIES
NO OTHER LAND
PORCELAIN WAR
SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP D’ETAT
SUGARCANE

The only film I saw in this category was SUGARCANE, about the trauma caused by Catholic Church-run Indian schools throughout North America in the first half of the 20th Century.  It was powerful.  However, my understanding is that NO OTHER LAND and PORCELAIN WAR are the most likely winners.  I’m leaning toward NO OTHER LAND.

Should Win:    SUGARCANE
Will Win:        NO OTHER LAND (PCI 2)

Best Cinematography:

Jarin Blaschke, NOSFERATU
Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST
Grieg Fraser, DUNE: PART TWO
Paul Guilhaume, EMILIA PEREZ
Edward Lachman, MARIA

THE BRUTALIST is going to win here, even though Grieg Fraser surpasses himself with his work in DUNE: PART TWO.

Should Win:    Grieg Fraser, DUNE: PART TWO
Will Win:        Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST (PC 4)

Best Film Editing:

Sean Baker, ANORA
Nick Emerson, CONCLAVE
David Jancso, THE BRUTALIST
Myron Kerstein, WICKED
Juliette Welfling, EMILIA PEREZ

The award will come down to either CONCLAVE or ANORA.  I feel CONCLAVE is a stronger choice, but if ANORA picks up Best Picture momentum (which it appears to be doing) it may win this category as well.  I’m going with CONCLAVE.

Should and Will Win:    Nick Emerson, CONCLAVE (PC 2)

Best Costume Design:

Lisy Christi, CONCLAVE
David Crossman, Janty Yates, GLADIATOR II
Linda Muir, David Schwed, NOSFERATU
Arianne Phillips, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Paul Tazewell, WICKED

Paul Tazewell’s WICKED costumes are delightful.  He will win.

Should and Will Win:    Paul Tazewell, WICKED (PC 4)

Best Production Design:

THE BRUTALIST
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
NOSFERATU
WICKED

WICKED will score another technical win here, but DUNE: PART TWO was my favorite.

Should Win:    DUNE: PART TWO
Will Win:        WICKED (PC 3)

Best Original Score:

Volker Bertelmann, CONCLAVE
Daniel Blumberg, THE BRUTALIST
Kris Bowers, THE WILD ROBOT
Clement Ducol and Camille, EMILIA PEREZ
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, WICKED

Bertelmann’s score for CONCLAVE is unnecessarily bombastic; he still thinks he’s scoring ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT.  Blumberg’s score for THE BRUTALIST is pretentious.  It won’t stop it from winning.  My choice would be Clement Ducol and Camille’s score for EMILA PEREZ.

Should Win:    Clement Ducol and Camille, EMILIA PEREZ
Will Win:        Daniel Blumberg, THE BRUTALIST (PC 3)
Overlooked:    Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, CHALLENGERS

Best Original Song:

“El Mal”, EMILIA PEREZ
“The Journey”, THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
“Like A Bird”, SING SING
“Mi Camino”, EMILIA PEREZ
“Never Too Late”, ELTON JOHN: NEVER TOO LATE

My favorite musical number from EMILIA PEREZ was “El Mal.”  Happily, it is the likely winner.

Should and Will Win:    “El Mal”, EMILIA PEREZ (PC 5)

Best Sound:

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PEREZ
WICKED
THE WILD ROBOT

DUNE: PART TWO should win unless WICKED pulls an upset.

Should and Will Win:    DUNE: PART TWO (PC 2)

Best Visual Effects:

ALIEN: ROMULUS
BETTER MAN
DUNE: PART TWO
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
WICKED

This feels like a DUNE: PART TWO lock.

Should and Will Win:    DUNE: PART TWO (PC 4)

Best Makeup:

A DIFFERENT MAN
EMILIA PEREZ
NOSFERATU
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED

This is the one award that THE SUBSTANCE deserves.

Should and Will Win:    THE SUBSTANCE (PC 4)

Best Documentary Short Subject:

DEATH BY NUMBERS
I AM READY, WARDEN
INCIDENT
INSTRUMENTS OF A BEATING HEART
THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA

I did not see DEATH BY NUMBERS.  Of the others, my favorite was INCIDENT, made with policy body cam footage during a fatal encounter on a Chicago street in 2018.  I AM READY, WARDEN is the frontrunner, but THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA, about Orin O’Brien, the first full time female member of the New York Philharmonic, is delightful and could upset.

Should Win:    INCIDENT
Will Win:        I AM READY, WARDEN (PC 2)

Best Animated Short Subject:

BEAUTIFUL MEN
IN THE SHADOW OF THE CYPRESS
MAGIC CANDIES
WANDER TO WONDER
YUCK!

I didn’t see any of these.  I hear this will likely come down to BEAUTIFUL MEN or YUCK!

Will Win:    YUCK! (PC 1)

Best Live Action Short Subject:

A LIEN
ANUJA
I’M NOT A ROBOT
THE LAST RANGER
THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT

I did not see A LIEN or THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT.  I enjoyed I’M NOT A ROBOT, a bit of existential dread that we experience almost every day.  THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT is favored to win, though A LIEN is close on its heels.

Should Win:    I’M NOT A ROBOT
Will Win:        THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT (PC 2)

AN INADEQUATE UNKNOWN: A 2024 OVERVIEW

While attempting to assemble a satisfying list of my favorite films of 2024 I realized there was no film (let alone a handful) that truly stood out in a tumultuous year – a year more like a series of escalating shocks rather than discrete days followed by discrete weeks followed by discrete months into a discrete year.  Not since the 2020 pandemic has a movie year felt so haphazard and patched together.  This year isn’t quite that, I suppose, but there’s something missing, a lack, an absence that stymies me.

After nearly a year of COVID isolation anesthetizing me, I vividly recall watching Promising Young Woman in 2021 (it was released in 2020) and being shocked out of my numbness.  Many friends whose opinions I respect did not care for the movie.  Perhaps my own opinion was clouded by my visceral reaction to the film’s third act.  For better or worse that film woke me up from my stupor.  Since then there was 2021’s Drive My Car, speaking to emerging from isolation, there was 2022’s Tar, about the heady seduction of monsters, and 2023’s Anatomy of a Fall, about the unknowability of absolute truth.  These films (and others in those years) spoke very specifically to me and to its particular year.  The films of 2024 have eluded me thus far.

Could this be the aftereffect of the 2023 writer and actor strikes?  Or is it a reaction to a world that has decided it’s time to move on from all the compromises, minor and major, forced on us by the pandemic.  Dammit, we’re going to be normal again if it kills you!!!  Perhaps it’s both.  Whatever the reason, the year’s films don’t fit easily into my social, ethical or political narratives of 2024, at least as far as I can see.  None provides a life raft in raging waters, a lamp in a moonless night, a rope on a sheer rock face.  They feel, despite their many qualities, inadequate.

But there is still plenty worth watching.  Strip away its operatic trappings and Emilia Perez effectively dramatizes how even good intentions are hollowed out by the corruption of money and power.  Meanwhile Conclave confirms that cardinals are people just like us – petty, manipulative, back-stabbing.  And Sean Baker’s romantic comedy Anora is, at its heart, about the working class -- be it sex workers, middle management, or muscle – doing their best to meet unreasonable demands of their clients or bosses.

The film which comes closest to capturing 2024 for me would be Walter Salles’ remarkable I’m Still Here.  It speaks, more than any other film I saw, to the need for joyful perseverance in the face of oppression and fear.  Likewise, Megan Park’s surprising My Old Ass, with its clever time-sharing conceit, reminds us to commit to our lives without apology or fear.  Sounds hokey as I write it, but, believe me, the movie pulls it off.

Time to sign off for the year.  Thanks to all of you for just being you and just being there when needed.  It’s easy to forget how important that is.  And remember to be kind.  I promise to endure if you do (promise, that is).  Until next year.


Brian Pope
February 28, 2025
************************************************************

THE BEST OF 2024


THE TOP TEN

(in alphabetical order) 

ANORA  Writer/director Sean Baker’s freewheeling romantic comedy set in the world of sex workers, Russian oligarchs, and their henchman never turns as dark as one fears but sticks a landing of tender sadness, thanks to the exceptional Mikey Madison (as the vibrant Anora) and Yura Borisov (as melancholy muscle Igor).

CHALLENGERS  Come to see beautiful people (Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist) in various stages of undress.  Stick around for a propulsive exploration of competition both on and off the tennis court.  Director Luca Guadagnino’s most shamelessly entertaining film boasts a terrific score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

CIVIL WAR  Writer/director Alex Garland’s cautionary fable about a rogue president who turns United States citizens into battling armed factions seems more prescient by the day.  Kirsten Dunst, as a cynical photographer, and Cailee Spaeny, as her protégé, are standouts, with a terrifying cameo by Jesse Plemons that’s difficult to shake off.

CONCLAVE  The death of the Pope sets this Vatican-set thriller in motion.  Screenwriter Peter Straughan navigates the labyrinthine twists effortlessly, while Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow (and a cavalcade of cutthroat cardinals) present as more polite versions of the Roy family from Succession or subtler versions of the Plastics from Mean Girls.

DUNE: PART 2  After the table setting of Part 1, director Denis Villeneuve finally gets to the uneasy, messianic heart of Frank Herbert’s beloved novel.  Technical credits are exceptional, yet amidst the sand-swept visuals, the committed performances of Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson and, yes, Zendaya, still manage to shine.

EMILIA PEREZ  Part political thriller, part family drama, director/adapter Jacques Audiard’s Brechtian opera about a drug lord who disappears then returns in a most unexpected way, may be the most electrifying and surprising movie this year.  Whatever your response to this controversial film may be, there’s little doubt Zoe Saldana’s riveting performance is one of the year’s very best.

I’M STILL HERE   Director Walter Salles’ vibrant and harrowing drama about a family devastated by Brazil’s military dictatorship circa 1970 pulses with life and resilience.  The film’s ensemble is excellent, but Fernanda Torres is the glue that holds the film together.  I came away from the movie resolved and hopeful, and that’s an exceptional feat.  See it if you can.

MY OLD ASS  During a mushroom trip, a free-spirited young woman meets her 39-year-old self who imparts wisdom and warnings from the future.  With this magical realism premise, writer/director Megan Park fashions a whimsical and warm-hearted comedy-drama about facing tough choices and coming to terms with inevitable loss.

A REAL PAIN  On an historical tour of Poland, cousins Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin come to grips with the 20th century pain their Jewish grandmother suffered as well as their own uniquely 21st century pain.  The script by director Eisenberg is often funny and sharply observed, while Culkin’s manic performance is sublime.

SEPTEMBER 5  The terrorist attacks during the 1972 Munich Olympics are retold from the point of view of the American sports broadcasters covering the events from inside the Olympic Village.  Both suspenseful and permeated with dread, the film grapples with dilemmas both practical and ethical, and left this viewer drained and profoundly sad.

Runners Up

(in alphabetical order)

EVIL DOES NOT EXIST
HARD TRUTHS
NICKEL BOYS
SING SING

Honorable Mentions:  THE BRUTALIST; FANCY DANCE; INSIDE OUT 2; THE SUBSTANCE; SUGARCANE; SUPER/MAN: THE CHRISTOPHER REEVE STORY; WICKED


THE BOTTOM THREE

(in alphabetical order)

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES  Like processed cheese, this franchise just keeps going long past its reasonable shelf life.  Bland to the taste and zero nutrition.

THE LAST SHOWGIRL  Hyped as Pamela Anderson’s big dramatic showcase, the film lacks depth or compassion and leans heavily on pity.  Not a compelling look.

LONGLEGS  Osgood Perkins’ dreadfully dull, oppressively pretentious serial killer film doesn’t even have an interesting villain let alone a relatable protagonist.