Best
Picture:
AMERICAN
SNIPER
BIRDMAN
OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
BOYHOOD
THE
GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE
IMITATION GAME
SELMA
THE
THEORY OF EVERYTHING
WHIPLASH
If you
believe (as many do) that the winner will be either BIRDMAN or BOYHOOD, then
consider this: Best Picture almost never
goes to a film that was not nominated in the Best Editing category. For that reason I’m going with BOYHOOD. The PGA gave this award to BIRDMAN, so I may be wrong on this one.
Should
Win: SELMA
Will
Win: BOYHOOD
Overlooked: NIGHTCRAWLER
Best
Director:
Wes
Anderson, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alejandro
G. Iñarritu, BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
Richard
Linklater, BOYHOOD
Bennett
Miller, FOXCATCHER
Morten
Tyldum, THE IMITATION GAME
Usually
Academy voters agree with the DGA, and the DGA picked Alejandro Iñarritu this
year. He would be the safe choice. Voters have split the Best
Picture and Best Director vote a number of times in the past few years. How many more times can that happen? I’m not sure, but it has seldom happened
throughout Oscar® history. I’m going out on a limb here and pick Richard Linklater.
Should
and Will Win: Richard Linklater, BOYHOOD
Overlooked: Ann
DuVernay, SELMA
Dan Gilroy, NIGHTCRAWLER
Jennifer
Kent, THE BABADOOK
Best
Actress:
Marion
Cotillard, TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT
Felicity
Jones, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Julianne
Moore, STILL ALICE
Rosamund
Pike, GONE GIRL
Reese
Witherspoon, WILD
I
didn’t see STILL ALICE. I heard it was
good and that Julianne Moore was great.
You’d be foolish to vote against her.
I also did not see TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT, and I hear that Marion Cotillard
is the only one giving Moore a run for her money. Of the performances I saw, Felicity Jones’
was the one that sold me.
Should
Win: Felicity Jones, THE THEORY OF
EVERYTHING
Will
Win: Julianne Moore, STILL ALICE
Overlooked: Essie Davis, THE BABADOOK
Best
Actor:
Steve
Carell, FOXCATCHER
Bradley
Cooper, AMERICAN SNIPER
Benedict
Cumberbatch, THE IMITATION GAME
Michael
Keaton, BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
Eddie
Redmayne, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Eddie
Redmayne’s transformation into Stephen Hawking is a marvel of physicality, and
voters love actors who take on physical challenges. As great as Redmayne is, I keep remembering
Michael Keaton’s performance and being newly impressed each time I think of it.
Should
Win: Michael Keaton, BIRDMAN OR (THE
UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
Will
Win: Eddie Redmayne, THE THEORY
OF EVERYTHING
Overlooked: Ralph Fiennes, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Brendan Gleeson, CALVARY
Jake
Gyllenhaal, NIGHTCRAWLER
David Oyelowo, SELMA
Best
Supporting Actress:
Patricia
Arquette, BOYHOOD
Laura
Dern, WILD
Keira
Knightley, THE IMITATION GAME
Emma
Stone, BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
Meryl
Streep, INTO THE WOODS
One of
my favorite performances this year was Patricia Arquette’s in BOYHOOD. She deserves to and will win.
Should
and Will Win: Patricia Arquette, BOYHOOD
Overlooked: Rene
Russo, NIGHTCRAWLER
Best
Supporting Actor:
Robert
Duvall, THE JUDGE
Ethan
Hawke, BOYHOOD
Edward
Norton, BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
Mark
Ruffalo, FOXCATCHER
J.K.
Simmons, WHIPLASH
Don’t
get me wrong. I love, Love, LOVE J.K.
Simmons in everything he does, and he’s great in WHIPLASH. And he’s going to win. But Mark Ruffalo disappears into his role in
FOXCATCHER. He should win, but he won’t.
Should
Win: Mark Ruffalo, FOXCATCHER
Will
Win: J.K. Simmons, WHIPLASH
Overlooked: Josh Brolin, INHERENT VICE
Best
Adapted Screenplay:
Paul
Thomas Anderson, INHERENT VICE
Damien
Chazelle, WHIPLASH
Jason
Hall, AMERICAN SNIPER
Anthony
McCarten, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Graham
Moore, THE IMITATION GAME
There
isn’t a single film on this list that I liked without reservation. However, my favorite is WHIPLASH, and I
suspect (hope?) the voters will agree. The WGA
gave this award to THE IMITATION GAME.
However, WHIPLASH was nominated as an original screenplay in that
instance, which could be a game changer here.
Should
and Will Win: Damien Chazelle, WHIPLASH
Overlooked: Gillian
Flynn, GONE GIRL
Best
Original Screenplay:
Wes
Anderson, Hugo Guinness, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
E. Max
Frye, Dan Futterman, FOXCATCHER
Dan
Gilroy, NIGHTCRAWLER
A.G.
Iñarritu, N. Giacobone, A. Dinelaris, A. Bo, BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE
OF IGNORANCE)
Richard
Linklater, BOYHOOD
I
liked all of the original screenplay nominees this year, but far and away my
favorite was NIGHTCRAWLER. However, I
think this is the biggest award voters will give Wes Anderson.
Should
Win: Dan Gilroy, NIGHTCRAWLER
Will
Win: Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness,
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Overlooked: Jennifer Kent, THE BABADOOK
Best
Animated Film
BIG
HERO 6
THE
BOXTROLLS
HOW
TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2
SONG
OF THE SEA
THE
TALE OF PRINCESS KAGUYA
Should
Win: I didn’t see any of the films
this year.
Will
Win: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2
Best
Foreign Language Film
IDA
(Poland)
LEVIATHAN
(Russia)
TANGERINES
(Estonia)
TIMBUKTU
(Mauritania)
WILD
TALES (Argentina)
Should
Win: IDA (it’s the only one I saw)
Will
Win: LEVIATHAN
Best
Documentary Feature
CITIZENFOUR
FINDING
VIVIAN MAIER
LAST
DAYS IN VIETNAM
THE
SALT OF THE EARTH
VIRUNGA
Should
Win: I didn’t see any of the films
this year.
Will
Win: CITIZENFOUR
Best
Cinematography
Roger
Deakins, UNBROKEN
Emmanuel
Lubezki, BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
Dick
Pope, MR. TURNER
Robert
Yeoman, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Lukasz
Zal, Ryszard Lenczewski, IDA
Deakins
is long, long overdue for this award, but he won’t win. Robert Elswit should have been nominated for
NIGHTCRAWLER. The award will go to
Emmanuel Lubezki for the second year in a row, and deservedly so.
Should
and Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, BIRDMAN
OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE
Overlooked: Robert Elswit, NIGHTCRAWLER
Best
Film Editing
Sandra
Adair, BOYHOOD
Joel
Cox, Gary D. Roach, AMERICAN SNIPER
Tom
Cross, WHIPLASH
William
Goldenberg, THE IMITATION GAME
Barney
Pilling, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
More often than not the Best Editing award goes to the Best Picture winner
(although last year it didn’t). As much
as I’d like to see WHIPLASH win, I predict the trophy will be given to BOYHOOD.
Should
Win: Tom Cross, WHIPLASH
Will
Win: Sandra Adair, BOYHOOD
Best
Costume Design
Colleen
Atwood, INTO THE WOODS
Mark
Bridges, INHERENT VICE
Milena
Canonero, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Jacqueline
Durran, MR. TURNER
Anna
B. Sheppard, Jane Clive, MALEFICENT
Sadly,
movies set post-19th Century are unlikely to win in this category
(and rarely get nominated). That knocks
INHERENT VICE off your ballot. BUDAPEST
would be a good choice, but I suspect (hope?) voters will throw a bone to INTO THE
WOODS.
Should
Win: Milena Canonero, THE GRAND
BUDAPEST HOTEL
Will
Win: Colleen Atwood, INTO THE
WOODS
Best
Production Design
THE
GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE
IMITATION GAME
INTERSTELLAR
INTO
THE WOODS
MR.
TURNER
The
only film in this category that might give BUDAPEST a run for its money is MR.
TURNER.
Should
and Will Win: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Best
Original Score
Alexander
Desplat, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alexandre
Desplat, THE IMITATION GAME
Johann
Johannsson, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Gary
Yershon, MR. TURNER
Hans
Zimmer, INTERSTELLAR
Alexander
Desplat is overdue in this category, but he’ll likely lose out (twice) again.
Should
Win: Alexander Desplat, THE GRAND
BUDAPEST HOTEL
Will
Win: Johann Johannsson, THE
THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Best
Original Song
“Everything
Is Awesome,” THE LEGO MOVIE
“Glory,”
SELMA
“Grateful,”
BEYOND THE LIGHTS
“I’m
Not Gonna Miss You,” GLEN CAMPBELL…I’LL BE ME
“Lost
Stars,” BEGIN AGAIN
As
catchy as “Everything Is Awesome” is, voters will likely give Best Song to the
film in the Best Picture category.
Should
and Will Win: “Glory,” SELMA
Best
Sound Mixing
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
INTERSTELLAR
UNBROKEN
WHIPLASH
If there’s a musical nominated, that film usually wins in this
category. While WHIPLASH isn’t a musical
per se, it’s close enough.
Should
and Will Win: WHIPLASH
Best
Sound Editing
AMERICAN
SNIPER
BIRDMAN
OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)
THE
HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES
INTERSTELLAR
UNBROKEN
This
award often goes to a movie with a lot action.
In this case I’d lean toward the film nominated in the Best Picture
category.
Should
and Will Win: AMERICAN SNIPER
Best
Visual Effects
CAPTAIN
AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER
DAWN
OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
GUARDIANS
OF THE GALAXY
INTERSTELLAR
X-MEN:
DAYS OF FUTURE PAST
I
hear through the Hollywood grapevine that it’s between DAWN OF THE PLANET OF
THE APES and INTERSTELLAR.
Should
and Will Win: INTERSTELLAR
Best
Makeup
FOXCATCHER
THE
GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
GUARDIANS
OF THE GALAXY
If
a film nominated for Best Picture is nominated in this category, it’s a good
bet to win.
Should
Win: GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY
Will
Win: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Best
Documentary Short Subject
CRISIS
HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1
JOANNA
OUR
CURSE
THE
REAPER (LA PARKA)
WHITE
EARTH
I’m
guessing.
Will
Win: CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS
PRESS 1
Best
Animated Short Subject
THE
BIGGER PICTURE
THE
DAM KEEPER
FEAST
ME
AND MY MOULTON
A
SINGLE LIFE
I’m
guessing again.
Will
Win: FEAST
Best
Live Action Short Subject
AYA
BOOGALOO
AND GRAHAM
BUTTER
LAMP (LA LAMPE AU BEURRE DE YAK)
PARVENEH
THE
PHONE CALL
I’m
guessing yet again.
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