I’ve spent the year discussing which movies I like and why. Here I predict to whom the Academy will give its highest honors and why. I’ll also let you know when I’m just guessing, so you can adjust your expectations accordingly. In the 20-plus years that I’ve participated in Oscar pools, I’ve won money in about 3. Clearly you should seek out someone else’s advice, but here goes nothing.
Best Picture:
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
GRAVITY
HER
NEBRASKA
PHILOMENA
12 YEARS A SLAVE
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Most prognosticators agree that the race has come down to AMERICAN HUSTLE, GRAVITY and 12 YEARS A SLAVE. I agree. While it’s possible the three will beat each other up just enough for a surprise winner to emerge, that scenario seems doubtful. Under that assumption, the long shot seems to be AMERICAN HUSTLE. While it’s my favorite, it also has many detractors. Everyone seems to love GRAVITY, but it may not be prestigious enough for the Academy. Therefore, I predict 12 YEARS A SLAVE will win.
Should Win: AMERICAN HUSTLE
Will Win: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Overlooked: BEFORE MIDNIGHT
Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron, GRAVITY
Steve McQueen, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Alexander Payne, NEBRASKA
David O. Russell, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Martin Scorsese, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Conventional wisdom suggests this award belongs to Alfonso Cuaron and his remarkable technical achievement. I have no quibble with that. His storytelling skills here are mean and relentless. However, I would prefer seeing David O. Russell win for his head-spinning and emotionally-relevant take on the scam movie. Although I predict Cuaron will win, there’s a chance that McQueen could sneak in if 12 YEARS A SLAVE is, as I predict, the Best Picture winner.
Should Win: David O. Russell, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, GRAVITY
Overlooked: Paul Greengrass, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Best Actress:
Amy Adams, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Cate Blanchett, BLUE JASMINE
Sandra Bullock, GRAVITY
Judi Dench, PHILOMENA
Meryl Streep, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
Cate Blanchett is fantastic in this role. The only thing that could (remotely) affect her chances of walking away a winner is the cloud of scandal caused by the Woody Allen abuse accusations. I also wouldn’t mind if Amy Adams won, but Blanchett seems a lock.
Should and Will Win: Cate Blanchett, BLUE JASMINE
Overlooked: Julie Delpy, BEFORE MIDNIGHT
Best Actor:
Christian Bale, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Bruce Dern, NEBRASKA
Leonardo DiCaprio, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Matthew McConaughey, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
This is the strongest acting category in years. With the exception of Leonardo DiCaprio, who was fearless but undisciplined, I would be happy with any one of the nominees walking up to the podium on Oscar night. Bruce Dern deserves it not just for this movie but for his catalogue of work. Christian Bale keeps getting better and better, so I trust his chance will return. Put a gun to my head, and I’d choose Chiwetel Ejiofor for carrying us through a tough, tough film. But I suspect that Matthew McConaughey will win gold this year, and that’s just fine.
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Overlooked: Michael B. Jordan, FRUITVALE STATION
Best Supporting Actress:
Sally Hawkins, BLUE JASMINE
Jennifer Lawrence, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Julia Roberts, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
June Squibb, NEBRASKA
Early in the awards season it was presumed that Jennifer Lawrence would win her second Oscar in two years. Now I wouldn’t be so sure. She was wonderful to be sure, but so were Sally Hawkins and June Squibb (my secret, dark horse favorite). But Lupita Nyong’o was devastatingly good and deserves to and will win.
Should and Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Overlooked: Oprah Winfrey, LEE DANIELS’ THE BUTLER
Best Supporting Actor:
Barkhad Abdi, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Bradley Cooper, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Michael Fassbender, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Jonah Hill, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Jared Leto, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Jared Leto started out as the front-runner in this category and never looked back. He will win, but I believe Barkhad Abdi is a better choice, matching Tom Hanks beat for beat.
Should Win: Barkhad Abdi, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Will Win: Jared Leto, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Overlooked: Matthew McConaughey, MUD
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, PHILOMENA
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, BEFORE MIDNIGHT
Billy Ray, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
John Ridley, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Terence Winter, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Billy Ray’s thoughtful action film CAPTAIN PHILLIPS certainly deserves a nomination and, in my opinion, deserves to win. However, my second choice would be John Ridley’s bracing 12 YEARS A SLAVE. And, because the film’s a Best Picture front-runner, Ridley will prevail.
Should Win: Billy Ray, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Will Win: John Ridley, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Overlooked: Danny Strong, LEE DANIELS’ THE BUTLER
Best Original Screenplay:
Woody Allen, BLUE JASMINE
Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Spike Jonze, HER
Bob Nelson, NEBRASKA
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, AMERICAN HUSTLE
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB is a mess, and Woody Allen won only a few short years ago for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS and is under the cloud of accusation. Spike Jonze’s HER won this year’s WGA Award and is considered the favorite. However, because I believe AMERICAN HUSTLE will otherwise be shut out, I predict that Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell win. I would prefer if Bob Nelson’s NEBRASKA won, but that seems a long shot.
Should Win: Bob Nelson, NEBRASKA
Will Win: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Overlooked: Ryan Coogler, FRUITVALE STATION
Best Animated Film
THE CROODS
DESPICABLE ME 2
ERNEST & CELESTINE
FROZEN
THE WIND RISES
Should Win: I haven’t seen any of these films and have no preference.
Will Win: FROZEN
Best Foreign Language Film
THE BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN (Belgium)
THE GREAT BEAUTY (Italy)
THE HUNT (Denmark)
THE MISSING PICTURE (Cambodia)
OMAR (Palestine)
Should Win: The only nominee I saw was THE HUNT, and it was no great shakes.
Will Win: THE GREAT BEAUTY
Best Documentary Feature
THE ACT OF KILLING
CUTIE AND THE BOXER
DIRTY WARS
THE SQUARE
20 FEET FROM STARDOM
The only nominee I saw was THE ACT OF KILLING, and it was a stunner. I’m guessing that film is too disturbing to give an Oscar to, so the Academy will honor THE SQUARE, about the Egyptian uprising against the government.
Should Win: THE ACT OF KILLING
Will Win: THE SQUARE
Best Cinematography
Roger A. Deakins, PRISONERS
Bruce Delbonnel, INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
Philippe Le Sourd, THE GRANDMASTER
Emmanuel Lubezki, GRAVITY
Phedon Papamichael, NEBRASKA
Emmanuel Lubezki was robbed for CHILDREN OF MEN in 2006. This is the Academy’s chance to rectify that error.
Should and Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, GRAVITY
Best Film Editing
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
GRAVITY
12 YEARS A SLAVE
Because Best Editing almost always goes to the Best Picture winner, I’m going with 12 YEARS A SLAVE here.
Should Win: AMERICAN HUSTLE
Will Win: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Best Costume Design
Catherine Martin, THE GREAT GATSBY
Patricia Norris, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Michael O’Connor, THE INVISIBLE WOMAN
William Chang Suk Ping, THE GRANDMASTER
Michael Wilkinson, AMERICAN HUSTLE
The Academy loves Catherine Martin and may give this to her for THE GREAT GATSBY. However, I’m going to predict that they give it to 12 YEARS A SLAVE as part of the victory wave. If I’m wrong, this is going to be a long night.
Should Win: Michael Wilkinson, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Will Win: Patricia Norris, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Best Production Design
AMERICAN HUSTLE
GRAVITY
THE GREAT GATSBY
HER
12 YEARS A SLAVE
There’s a chance this one could go to GRAVITY, but I suspect the Academy plans to give it plenty of other technical awards. So 12 YEARS A SLAVE it is.
Should and Will Win: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Best Original Score
William Butler and Owen Pallett, HER
Alexandre Desplat, PHILOMENA
Thomas Newman, SAVING MR. BANKS
Steven Price, GRAVITY
John Williams, THE BOOK THIEF
The Academy has been fond of electronic scores of late (see THE SOCIAL NETWORK, in example). And, since the film will likely be shut out in other categories, it will get this as a token. Or, this could be part of a GRAVITY technical wave. But I hope not.
Should Win: Thomas Newman, SAVING MR. BANKS
Will Win: William Butler and Owen Pallett, HER
Best Original Song
“Happy,” DESPICABLE ME 2
“Let It Go,” FROZEN
“The Moon Song,” HER
“Ordinary Love,” MANDELA: A LONG WALK TO FREEDOM
I don’t care much for this category. I liked the U2 song, but I suspect the song from FROZEN will win.
Should Win: “Ordinary Love,” MANDELA: A LONG WALK TO FREEDOM
Will Win: “Let It Go,” FROZEN
Best Sound Mixing
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
LONE SURVIVOR
Now we come to the categories which I believe GRAVITY will dominate.
Should and Will Win: GRAVITY
Best Sound Editing
ALL IS LOST
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
LONE SURVIVOR
See above.
Should and Will Win: GRAVITY
Best Visual Effects
GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
IRON MAN 3
THE LONE RANGER
STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS
This one is a slam dunk.
Should and Will Win: GRAVITY
Best Makeup
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
JACKASS PRESENTS: BAD GRANDPA
THE LONE RANGER
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB could win in this category because it is more “prestigious,” but since when has this category been a bastion of prestige (see the Eddie Murphy remake of THE NUTTY PROFESOR)?
Should Win: DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Will Win: JACKASS PRESENTS: BAD GRANDPA
Best Documentary Short Subject
CAVE DIGGER
FACING FEAR
KARAMA HAS NO WALLS
THE LADY IN NUMBER 6: MUSIC SAVED MY LIFE
PRISON TERMINAL: THE LAST DAYS OF PRIVATE JACK HILL
I’m guessing.
Will Win: THE LADY IN NUMBER 6: MUSIC SAVED MY LIFE
Best Animated Short Subject
FERAL
GET A HORSE!
MR. HUBLOT
POSSESSIONS
ROOM ON THE BROOM
I’m guessing again.
Will Win: GET A HORSE!
Best Live Action Short Subject
AQUEL NO ERA YO (THAT WASN’T ME)
AVANT QUE DE TOUT PERDRE (JUST BEFORE LOSING EVERYTHING)
HELIUM
PITAAKO MUN KAIKKI HITAA? (DO I HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF EVERYTHING?)
THE VOORMAN PROBLEM
I’m guessing yet again.
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