Saturday, March 3, 2018

THE BEST AND WORST OF 2017: GLIMPSES OUTSIDE THE COMFORT ZONE


Another year has come and gone, and as of this writing I’ve only seen 43 of the year’s movies.  At times in the past some fellow movie aficionados have admonished me for not “seeing enough crap.”  I suppose that’s fair.  And yet I can’t help feeling a certain virtue.  I try to see movies that interest me or movies that cross the event horizon of public consciousness or movies that simply trigger that Pavlovian urge to sit in a dark theater for a couple hours.  Which means I mostly see things I like or for which I have a natural proclivity.  And somehow I still see just enough “crap” to recognize it as such.  I fear if I saw too much “crap” I might start giving it the benefit of the doubt.  Also I read.  A lot.  [Side Note:  If you like “hard” science fiction, stop what you are doing and read Cixin Liu’s mammoth Three-Body trilogy.  It will blow your mind.]  All this is to say that I have better things to do than waste my time on lousy movies if I can at all help it.

My favorite movies this year featured outsiders in main or major roles.  Almost every character in THE FLORIDA PROJECT lives on the fringe of society.  In GET OUT a black boyfriend spends a nightmarish weekend with his girlfriend’s wealthy white family.  And THE SHAPE OF WATER’s protagonists include a mute janitor, her black co-worker, a gay neighbor, a compassionate Soviet agent, and a humanoid sea creature.  In movies from the early ‘60s (the era when the movie is set) few of these characters would even attain supporting stature.  The latter two would likely be the villain and the monster, respectively.  Instead the movie’s monster is a U.S. government agent (normally our ‘60s ostensible hero).

The best films of 2017 remind us that we can discover courage, understanding and resilience in unexpected places.  Perhaps we would do well to move beyond our normal comfort zones, both on screen and off.  We might be surprised and heartened but what we experience there.  Speaking only for myself, pleasant surprises and happy accidents are two of my favorite things in art and in life.  Here’s to more in 2018.

Thanks to everyone who has been willing to engage with me and the movies throughout the year.  It’s always a pleasure to speak passionately and intelligently with such thoughtful and honorable people.  For this, I can only offer my most profound gratitude and humility.

Finally, thanks to my supportive family and friends.  I’m lucky to have you.
  
Brian Pope
March 3, 2018
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THE BEST OF 2017

THE TOP THREE
(in alphabetical order)
THE FLORIDA PROJECT  Set in “The Magic Kingdom,” a transient hotel on the outskirts of Disneyworld, Sean Baker’s raucous film explores America’s indigent underbelly through the eyes of 7-year-old Moonee (a riveting Brooklyn Pierce) and her struggling ex-stripper mother (an excellent Bria Vinaite).  Kindhearted hotel manager Bobby (a tender Willem Dafoe) acts as beleaguered parent to the kids and emotionally stunted adults in his reluctant care.  Funny, frustrating and, ultimately, heartbreaking.
GET OUT  Writer/director Jordan Peele taps into the cultural zeitgeist with this pitch black social horror comedy, upending conventional wisdom about race relations in America.  Black boyfriend Chris (Daniel Kaluuya) and white girlfriend Rose (Allison Williams) visit her progressive parents (Bradley Whitford and Catherine Keener) at their remote family estate, but he finds the demeanor (and presence) of black servants unnerving.  The truth, once revealed, is even more outrageous than imagined, but Peele’s arch tone never wavers.
THE SHAPE OF WATER  At a top secret government lab, mute janitor Elisa (Sally Hawkins) becomes infatuated with a mystical sea creature (Doug Jones) captured by a ruthless federal agent (Michael Shannon).  She plots to free him with the help of artist Giles (Richard Jenkins) and fellow janitor Zelda (Octavia Spencer).  Director Guillermo del Toro’s gorgeous fantasy mashes together the disparate genres of espionage thriller, fairy tale romance, and social drama to create a meticulously crafted and heartfelt love letter to the movies.
THE BEST OF THE REST OF THE TOP TEN
(in alphabetical order)
BLADE RUNNER 2049  Heretical as this may sound, director Denis Villeneuve improves upon Ridley Scott’s visionary but flawed 1982 cult film with this overlong but visually and thematically rich meditation on identity.
BRAD’S STATUS  Mike White turns a father and son tour of colleges into an awkward comedy drama about the problems of privilege.  Austin Abrams is terrific as the son, and Ben Stiller gives his best performance in years.
THE DISASTER ARTIST  An affectionate recounting of the relationship between enigmatic Tommy Wiseau (James Franco) and actor Greg Sistero (Dave Franco) and the creation of one of the worst movies ever made.
LADY BIRD  This prickly coming-of-age comedy and unsentimental mother/daughter drama highlights Greta Gerwig’s unique and quirky cinema voice.  Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf are absolute knockouts.
LOGAN  After slumming in uninspired X-MEN and WOLVERINE sequels Hugh Jackman finally shows his acting chops in this violent, resonant elegy that does for superheroes what THE WILD BUNCH did for cowboys.
MUDBOUND  Set in rural Georgia just after World War II Dee Rees’ richly observed film follows two returning soldiers (one white, one black) who must navigate the bonds of brotherhood against ingrained Southern racism.
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI  Too uneven in tone to take completely seriously, yet Martin McDonagh’s film about vengeance, guilt and futility is difficult to shake, as are the indelible performances of Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell.
Runners-Up of 2017
(in alphabetical order)
THE BIG SICK
I, TONYA
PATTI CAKE$
THE POST
RAW
Honorable Mentions: BABY DRIVER; BEATRIZ AT DINNER; CALL ME BY YOUR NAME; JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 2; PERSONAL SHOPPER; PHANTOM THREAD; STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

THE WORST of 2017
(in alphabetical order)
DARKEST HOUR  By turns tedious and ridiculous, Joe Wright’s film torpedoes Gary Oldman’s prodigious thespian effort which sinks to the bottom of the English Channel.
ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.  Even Denzel Washington’s integrity and intelligence can’t save a film that doesn’t know what it’s saying or how to say it.
WILSON  Daniel Clowes adaptation of his graphic novel about a misanthrope fails completely in its translation to the screen, wasting the talents of Woody Harrelson and Judy Greer.

Friday, March 2, 2018

THE POPE’S 2017 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  This year the Academy has broadened its membership to include more diversity.  Will this affect the final vote?  It certainly seems to have affected the nominations.  We’ll see.  Below are my predictions for the 2017 Oscars®.

To assist with your own predictions I’ve created what I call a Prediction Confidence Indicator (PCI) from 1 to 5.  1=Not very confident, 2=Somewhat confident, 3=Confident, 4=Mostly confident, 5=Very confident.

And the nominees are:

Best Picture:

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
GET OUT
LADY BIRD
PHANTOM THREAD
THE POST
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

As in most years past Best Picture will come down to two films:  THE SHAPE OF WATER and THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI.  With the increase in nominated films (up to 10) and the change in voting methodology (ranking films from 1 thru 9, in this instance) a film need not have the most #1 votes to prevail.  Now a #2 or a #3 ranking could spell the difference between a LA LA LAND and a MOONLIGHT.  If you put credence in award history your best bet is THREE BILLBOARDS, which won the Golden Globe for Drama, the SAG Ensemble award, and the BAFTA Best Picture.  Item of note:  THREE BILLBOARDS did not snag a Best Director nomination.  It’s rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nod.  Last exception:  ARGO in 2013.  THE SHAPE OF WATER, on the other hand, has won almost every Best Director award this season.  If I could vote I would pick GET OUT, a film that will be discussed decades from now.  If I dare think like the Academy I would predict THE SHAPE OF WATER.  If I had my druthers THE FLORIDA PROJECT would be nominated rather than DARKEST HOUR.

Should Win:     GET OUT
Will Win:          THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 2)
Overlooked:    THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson, PHANTOM THREAD
Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD
Christopher Nolan, DUNKIRK
Jordan Peele, GET OUT

Guillermo del Toro has won almost every directing award this season.  It seems unlikely the Academy will break the trend.

Should and Will Win:   Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 5)
Overlooked:    Sean Baker, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Actress:

Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Margot Robbie, I, TONYA
Saoirse Ronan, LADY BIRD
Meryl Streep, THE POST

In an average year any one of these remarkable performances could reasonably win.  But this is not an average year.  Absent a five-way tie, I predict Frances McDormand will earn her second Oscar® for THREE BILLBOARDS.  However, I would be thrilled if Sally Hawkins won.

Should Win:     Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Will Win:          Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING,
                                                             MISSOURI (PCI 5)
Overlooked:    Vicky Krieps, PHANTOM THREAD

Best Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Daniel Day-Lewis, PHANTOM THREAD
Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT
Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR
Denzel Washington, ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.

Gary Oldman is the closest thing to a slam dunk this year, despite the film abandoning him (metaphorically) at Dunkirk with its frustrating mix of tedium and silliness.  Denzel Washington gets the consolation slot abandoned by James Franco after abuse accusations derailed his chances.  Robert Pattinson’s fearless turn in GOOD TIME deserves the slot more.  My vote would go to Daniel Kaluuya.

Should Win:     Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT
Will Win:          Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR (PCI 5)
Overlooked:    Robert Pattinson, GOOD TIME

Best Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, MUDBOUND
Allison Janney, I, TONYA
Lesley Manville, PHANTOM THREAD
Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD
Octavia Spencer, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf have been doing exceptional, underrated work for years now.  It’s a shame both can’t win.  Metcalf gives the more complex, nuanced performance, but Janney gets the showier part and runs with it.  I’d give the award to Metcalf, but Janney will win.  Do yourself a favor and rent THE FLORIDA PROJECT, a heartbreaking movie with a terrific performance by 7-year-old Brooklyn Prince.

Should Win:     Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD
Will Win:          Allison Janney, I, TONYA (PCI 4)
Overlooked:    Brooklyn Prince, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Woody Harrelson, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Richard Jenkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Christopher Plummer, ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

A category chock full of great character actors.  Willem Dafoe earned his first nomination for PLATOON in 1987, and he deserves the award here for his subtle, compassionate work.  Still my money is on Sam Rockwell, an always exceptional actor in a showpiece role, for the win.  Armie Hammer should have been included in this list for his enigmatic performance in CALL ME BY YOUR NAME.

Should Win:     Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Will Win:          Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING,
                                                  MISSOURI (PCI 5)
Overlooked:    Armie Hammer, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, LOGAN
James Ivory, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, THE DISASTER ARTIST
Aaron Sorkin, MOLLY’S GAME
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, MUDBOUND

For a more in-depth discussion of the adapted screenplay nominees, please check out Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar 2018 podcast (www.onthepage.tv).  James Ivory will win because 1) he’s had a long and respected career as a producer, director and writer without winning an Oscar®; and 2) CALL ME BY YOUR NAME is the only adapted screenplay nominee also nominated for Best Picture.

Should Win:     Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, THE DISASTER ARTIST
Will Win:          James Ivory, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (PCI 5)
Overlooked:    James Gray, THE LOST CITY OF Z

Best Original Screenplay:

Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD
Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, THE BIG SICK
Martin McDonagh, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Jordan Peele, GET OUT

For a more in-depth discussion of the original screenplay nominees, please check out Pilar Alessandra’s On The Page Oscar 2018 podcast (www.onthepage.tv).  Because Martin McDonagh was snubbed in the Best Director category conventional wisdom would suggest the Academy would reward him with a screenplay Oscar®.  Quite possible.  However, THREE BILLBOARDS will likely be getting plenty of acting love and quite possibly a Best Picture win.  Jordan Peele has written the movie of the moment, so I predict he earns the gold.

Should and Will Win:   Jordan Peele, GET OUT (PCI 3)
Overlooked:                Mike White, BRAD’S STATUS or BEATRIZ AT DINNER

Best Animated Film:

THE BOSS BABY
THE BREADWINNER
COCO
FERDINAND
LOVING VINCENT

Of the nominees I only saw FERDINAND, which didn’t impress as Best Animated Film.

Should Win:     Couldn’t say.
Will Win:          COCO (PCI 5)

Best Foreign Language Film:

A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile)
THE INSULT (Lebanon)
LOVELESS (Russia)
ON BODY AND SOUL (Hungary)
THE SQUARE (Sweden)

I’ve yet to see any of the nominees.  I hear A FANTASTIC WOMAN is the front-runner. 

Should Win:    Couldn't say.
Will Win:          A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile) (PCI 3)

Best Documentary Feature:

ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL
FACES PLACES
ICARUS
LAST MEN IN ALEPPO
STRONG ISLAND

I’ve yet to see any of the nominees.  I hear great things about FACES PLACES and would love to hear Agnes Varda speak.

Should Win:     Couldn’t say.
Will Win:          FACES PLACES (PCI 4)

Best Cinematography:

Roger Deakins, BLADE RUNNER 2049
Bruno Delbonnel, DARKEST HOUR
Dan Laustsen, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Rachel Morrison, MUDBOUND
Hoyte van Hoytema, DUNKIRK

Roger Deakins may finally get the Oscar® he so richly deserves.  However, Dan Laustsen may play spoiler if SHAPE OF WATER gains momentum.  Or Hoyte van Hoytema if DUNKIRK gets amply rewarded for its technical achievements.

Should and Will Win:   Roger Deakins, BLADE RUNNER 2049 (PCI 3)

Best Film Editing:

Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss, BABY DRIVER
Jon Gregory, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Tatiana S. Riegel, I, TONYA
Lee Smith, DUNKIRK
Sidney Wolinsky, THE SHAPE OF WATER

I’m in the minority and found DUNKIRK’s trifurcated timeline more distancing than immersive.  SHAPE OF WATER, on the other hand, reeled me in.  I’d give the gold to Sidney Wolinsky, but the Academy will probably honor Lee Smith.

Should Win:     Sidney Wolinsky, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Will Win:          Lee Smith, DUNKIRK (PCI 4)

Best Costume Design:

Consolata Boyle, VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Mark Bridges, PHANTOM THREAD
Jacqueline Durran, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
Jacqueline Durran, DARKEST HOUR
Luis Sequeira, THE SHAPE OF WATER

It seems intuitive to give the costume award to a movie about a dress designer.  Who am I to argue?  That said, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST and SHAPE OF WATER are the most likely spoilers.

Should and Will Win:   Mark Bridges, PHANTOM THREAD (PCI 3)

Best Production Design:

BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER

I found the dark future envisioned by BLADE RUNNER 2049 most compelling.  However, the Academy will probably reward the dark fairy tale of SHAPE OF WATER.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049
Will Win:          THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 4)

Best Original Score:

Carter Burwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Alexandre Desplat, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Jonny Greenwood, PHANTOM THREAD
John Williams, STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
Hans Zimmer, DUNKIRK

Jonny Greenwood’s score was easily my favorite this year.  The likely winner, however, is Alexandre Desplat.

Should Win:     Jonny Greenwood, PHANTOM THREAD
Will Win:          Alexander Desplat, THE SHAPE OF WATER (PCI 4)

Best Original Song:

“Mighty River,” MUDBOUND
“Mystery of Love,” CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
“Remember Me,” COCO
“Stand Up for Something,” MARSHALL
“This Is Me,” THE GREATEST SHOWMAN

The only song I remember (and remember liking) is Sufjan Stevens’ “Mystery of Love.”  The rest is noise.

Should Win:     “Mystery of Love,” CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Will Win:          “Remember Me,” COCO (PCI 3)

Best Sound Mixing:

BABY DRIVER
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

DUNKIRK will probably win, but it loses points for Hans Zimmer’s grating score accompanying the soundscape.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049
Will Win:          DUNKIRK (PCI 3)

Best Sound Editing:

BABY DRIVER
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

War movies seem to garner sound editing awards (I think), so I’m going with DUNKIRK.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049
Will Win:          DUNKIRK (PCI 3)

Best Visual Effects:

BLADE RUNNER 2049
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 2
KONG: SKULL ISLAND
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES

The myriad ape effects in WAR FOR are certainly a virtuoso achievement, but I found its whole less than the sum of its parts.

Should Win:     BLADE RUNNER 2049
Will Win:          WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES (PCI 2)

Best Makeup:

DARKEST HOUR
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
WONDER

Gary Oldman should give his Oscar® to the makeup designer as well.

Should and Will Win:   DARKEST HOUR (PCI 5)

Best Documentary Short Subject:

EDITH+EDDIE
HEAVEN IS A TRAFFIC JAM ON THE 405
HEROIN(E)
KNIFE SKILLS
TRAFFIC STOP

No clue, so I’ll guess.

Will Win:          EDITH+EDDIE (PCI 1)

Best Animated Short Subject:

DEAR BASKETBALL
GARDEN PARTY
LOU
NEGATIVE SPACE
REVOLTING RHYMES

Kobe Bryant produced DEAR BASKETBALL, and that’s why I’m picking it.

Will Win:          DEAR BASKETBALL (PCI 3)

Best Live Action Short Subject:

DeKALB ELEMENTARY
THE ELEVEN O’CLOCK
MY NEPHEW EMMETT
THE SILENT CHILD
WATU WOTE/ALL OF US

I’m guessing again.

Will Win:          DeKALB ELEMENTARY (PCI 2)