Friday, February 26, 2016

THE POPE’S 2015 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS

It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Below are my predictions the 2015 Oscars® and my reasoning for the predictions.  However, for your ballot it’s always best to go with your own best instincts.  Heaven knows, I probably think more than the average voter when it comes to making my choices.  And there you have it.

Best Picture:

THE BIG SHORT
BRIDGE OF SPIES
BROOKLYN
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
ROOM
SPOTLIGHT

If you use other awards as a guide, this year’s Best Picture appears to be a 3-way race.  THE BIG SHORT won the Producers Guild Award, SPOTLIGHT won the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award (the SAG equivalent of Best Picture), and THE REVENANT won the BAFTA (the British Oscar®) and the Golden Globe for drama.  (Yes, THE MARTIAN won the Golden Globe for comedy.  But it’s not a comedy, and that was a consolation prize.)  BROOKLYN and ROOM, both worthy nominees, are too small to win.  BRIDGE OF SPIES, a smart, sober drama, got the nod over other equally good films like CAROL and CREED because Steven Spielberg.

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD would be my choice for Best Picture.  It’s an adrenaline rush of pure cinema that works as an action movie and an allegory while playfully tweaking our archetypical gender expectations.  It’s gloriously gonzo, and it’s George Miller’s best film.  And it will not win.  Sigh.

Of the remaining films that are in serious contention, SPOTLIGHT -- a tense, economical drama about the Catholic Church scandal of the early 2000s -- would be my next choice.  This is the kind of topical tale Hollywood once did better than anyone.  However, it will likely split its votes with THE BIG SHORT – a funny, furious recounting of the financial crisis of 2008 – which would be my next favorite of the contenders.  And that leaves THE REVENANT, a beautifully shot two-and-a-half hour UFC grudge match with fur trappers and muskets.  Watching Leonardo DiCaprio grunt and crawl his way to Oscar® glory (his grizzled character’s sole motivation from where I sat) seems to be sufficient reason for voters to hand Alejandro G. Iñarritu his second Best Picture award in as many years.  However, if you’re looking for a sensible contrarian pick, you could do worse than THE BIG SHORT.

Should Win:     MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will Win:          THE REVENANT
Overlooked:    CAROL
                        CREED

Best Director:

Lenny Abrahamson, ROOM
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, THE REVENANT
Tom McCarthy, SPOTLIGHT
Adam McKay, THE BIG SHORT
George Miller, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Will voters award Iñarritu his second Best Director in a row?  The DGA did.  But then again the DGA nominated Tom Hooper for the garbage fire LES MISÉRABLES a couple years back, so their taste can be reasonably called into question.  Personally I would have preferred a Todd Haynes nomination for CAROL and give Iñarritu a rest, but no one listens to me.  This year there’s a chance (perhaps worth taking for the Oscar® pool contrarian) that the Academy will balk at giving so much love to Iñarritu in so short a time span.  Abrahamson snuck in (deservedly so) under the wire and is the longest shot.  McKay has the advantage of his film being topical and the disadvantage of his film being (essentially) a comedy.  That leaves McCarthy for SPOTLIGHT and Miller for MAD MAX as contrarian picks.  Of the two I’d give the edge to Miller.  He’s in his 70s, made a physically and logistically difficult movie, and is unlikely to be nominated again.  The safe money would be on Iñarritu and THE REVENANT, but I’m feeling contrarian.

Should and Will Win:   George Miller, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Overlooked:                Todd Haynes, CAROL

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett, CAROL
Brie Larson, ROOM
Jennifer Lawrence, JOY
Charlotte Rampling, 45 YEARS
Saoirse Ronan, BROOKLYN

Based solely on the three nominated performances I saw, Best Actress is one of the strongest categories this year.  Since her nominated performance in ATONEMENT Ronin has proven to be one of the finest actresses of her generation, but her performance in BROOKLYN may be too subtle for a win.  Lawrence and Blanchett have each won recently.  JOY received mixed reviews and CAROL proved elusive to Academy voters, so neither actress is likely to repeat.  Larson has been on a streak, with her performance in ROOM winning the Golden Globe for Actress in a drama and the SAG Award.  Her performance is devastating, and I see no reason for her streak to end.  Despite her storied career, Rampling has never been nominated until now.  There’s a remote chance voters will give her the win for 45 YEARS as a lifetime achievement, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Should and Will Win:   Brie Larson, ROOM
Overlooked:                Charlize Theron, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Best Actor:

Bryan Cranston, TRUMBO
Matt Damon, THE MARTIAN
Leonardo DiCaprio, THE REVENANT
Michael Fassbender, STEVE JOBS
Eddie Redmayne, THE DANISH GIRL

On the flip side of Best Actress, the Best Actor category feels lightweight.  So much so that with barely any effort I could name Tom Hanks in BRIDGE OF SPIES and Michael B. Jordan in CREED as performances more worthy than some.  Cranston’s TRUMBO is a very good performance in a mediocre movie.  Damon goes through his paces in THE MARTIAN but doesn’t connect emotionally until the final rescue attempt.  Last year’s Best Actor winner Redmayne is too mannered in THE DANISH GIRL for my taste (and I’m happy to blame the director Tom Hooper here).  Fassbender’s STEVE JOBS is the only performance that comes close to matching the material, but he will not win.  That honor belongs to DiCaprio in THE REVENANT.  Although his character is the film’s least interesting, voters seem more impressed with the actor’s hard work and less so with the performance’s artistic merit.  A modest proposal:  Institute a Tom Cruise Hardest Working Actor of the Year Award, so an Oscar® can be about the end result and not the process.

Should Win:     Michael Fassbender, STEVE JOBS
Will Win:          Leonardo DiCaprio, THE REVENANT
Overlooked:    Tom Hanks, BRIDGE OF SPIES
                        Michael B. Jordan, CREED

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Jason Leigh, THE HATEFUL EIGHT
Rooney Mara, CAROL
Rachel McAdams, SPOTLIGHT
Alicia Vikander, THE DANISH GIRL
Kate Winslet, STEVE JOBS

The actresses in the Supporting category are uniformly excellent.  It’s a shame that only three are genuinely supporting.  Tessa Thompson in CREED and Julie Walters in BROOKLYN would have been more appropriate choices, just to name two.  Leigh’s fearless performance in THE HATEFUL EIGHT is truly hateful (as it should be), and its unpleasantness may turn many voters off.  Oscar® darling Winslet won the Golden Globe for STEVE JOBS but is unlikely to win here.  McAdams has the best shot of the legitimately supporting actresses, but SPOTLIGHT is such a strong ensemble that it may be hard for voters to single out any one actor.  Mara is the co-lead in CAROL and should have been nominated alongside Blanchett, whom she matches beat for beat.  All things being equal (though they are not) hers is my favorite performance in this category.  However, another wrongly categorized performance is more likely to win.  Vikander is certainly the leading actress in THE DANISH GIRL and carries much of the movie.  For this reason, and because she was marvelous (in a supporting role) in EX MACHINA, voters will recognize her exceptional year here.

Should Win:     Rooney Mara, CAROL
Will Win:          Alicia Vikander, THE DANISH GIRL
Overlooked:    Tessa Thompson, CREED
                        Alicia Vikander, EX MACHINA
                        Julie Walters, BROOKLYN

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, THE BIG SHORT
Tom Hardy, THE REVENANT
Mark Ruffalo, SPOTLIGHT
Mark Ryland, BRIDGE OF SPIES
Sylvester Stallone, CREED

There is also an abundance of riches in the Supporting Actor category (and here at least each nominee is genuinely supporting).  So much so that I would be remiss if I didn’t bemoan the absence of Steve Carell in THE BIG SHORT, Benicio Del Toro in SICARIO, and Idris Elba in BEASTS OF NO NATION from the nominee list.  Bale’s quirky turn in THE BIG SHORT will likely be lost in the film’s strong ensemble.  Likewise Ruffalo in SPOTLIGHT (unless voters feel they slighted him in FOXCATCHER some years back).  Hardy’s performance in THE REVENANT is the film’s most interesting but will be unfairly overshadowed by DiCaprio.  My favorite is the subtle, sympathetic work of Ryland in BRIDGE OF SPIES.  He will lose to Stallone, however, for Sly’s sly, understated return as Rocky Balboa in CREED.

Should Win:     Mark Rylance, BRIDGE OF SPIES
Will Win:          Sylvester Stallone, CREED
Overlooked:    Steve Carell, THE BIG SHORT
                        Benicio Del Toro, SICARIO
                        Idris Elba, BEASTS OF NO NATION

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Emma Donoghue, ROOM
Drew Goddard, THE MARTIAN
Nick Hornby, BROOKLYN
Phyllis Nagy, CAROL
Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, THE BIG SHORT

Of the five nominees only Goddard’s THE MARTIAN seems a weak choice (not a bad choice, just weak).  How often can a problem be solved by science within a couple of screen minutes of said problem’s arrival?  Too often for my taste.  A better choice would have been Ryan Coogler & Aaron Covington’s CREED, a terrific reboot of the ROCKY franchise that stands fine on its own.  Donoghue’s harrowing and exhilarating adaptation of her novel ROOM may be too upsetting to win.  Hornby’s graceful BROOKLYN and Nagy’s quietly revolutionary CAROL are likely too subtle and may split each other’s vote.  The WGA just gave Randolph and McKay the award for THE BIG SHORT, and I couldn’t agree more.  Turning Michael Lewis’ book of the 2008 financial crisis (filled with esoteric financial terminology and transactions) into an entertaining and infuriating film is a minor miracle.

Should and Will Win:   Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, THE BIG SHORT
Overlooked:                Ryan Coogler & Aaron Covington, CREED

Best Original Screenplay:

Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, BRIDGE OF SPIES
Alex Garland, EX MACHINA
Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff, STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON
Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, INSIDE OUT
Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy, SPOTLIGHT

The biggest surprise in this exceptional crop of scripts was Herman and Berloff’s STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON, an energetic and vital biopic about the iconic rappers of N.W.A. which puts their music in a context that allows understanding and engenders respect.  Charman and the Coen brother’s BRIDGE OF SPIES is less surprising, but a solid and noble effort nonetheless.  In EX MACHINA Garland updates the mad scientist’s monster for the cyber era and creates the most cerebral of horror movies.  With the help of Pixar magicians, LeFauve & Cooley and Docter hit another animated home run with this wistful tale about a young girl’s coming to terms with sadness.  Yet my favorite of the bunch is Singer & McCarthy’s singular SPOTLIGHT, the economical and gripping story of the Boston Globe reporters who in 2002 uncovered widespread corruption at the Catholic Church.  The WGA honored it, and I’m confident the Academy will, too.

Should and Will Win:   Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy, SPOTLIGHT

Best Animated Film

ANOMALISA
BOY AND THE WORLD
INSIDE OUT
SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE
WHEN MARNIE WAS THERE

I only saw two of the nominated animated films this year and am frankly surprised the charming and faithful THE PEANUTS MOVIE didn’t make the cut.  Of those I did see Charlie Kaufman’s ANOMALISA, a brilliant but depressing tale of alienation, is far too much of a downer to win.  On the other hand INSIDE OUT, despite being tinged with melancholy, makes for a near perfect blend of kid friendly fun and grown up whimsy.  I would be very surprised if it didn’t take home the statue.

Should and Will Win:   INSIDE OUT
Overlooked:                THE PEANUTS MOVIE

Best Foreign Language Film

EMBRACE OF THE SERPENT (Columbia)
MUSTANG (France)
SON OF SAUL (Hungary)
THEEB (Jordan)
A WAR (Denmark)

I didn’t see any of the nominees this year, so I’m going with conventional wisdom and pick the Holocaust drama SON OF SAUL.  I understand a good upset pick could be MUSTANG.

Will Win:          SON OF SAUL (Hungary)

Best Documentary Feature

AMY
CARTEL LAND
THE LOOK OF SILENCE
WHAT HAPPENED, MISS SIMONE?
WINTER ON FIRE: UKRAINE’S FIGHT FOR FREEDOM

I only saw two of the nominees.  Joshua Oppenheimer’s bracing companion piece to THE ACT OF KILLING follows the brother of a victims of the mid-1960s Indonesian massacres as he confronts perpetrators (some still in political power) and their families.  THE LOOK OF SILENCE is one of the best films of the year.  However, the likely winner will be Asif Kapadia’s AMY, a loosely structured look at the tragedy of singer Amy Winehouse.

Should Win:     THE LOOK OF SILENCE
Will Win:          AMY

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins, SICARIO
Edward Lachman, CAROL
Emmanuel Lubezki, THE REVENANT
Robert Richardson, THE HATEFUL EIGHT
John Seale, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

A year in which Robert Richardson is my least favorite option is a strong year indeed.  Deakins is long overdue but an unlikely winner for SICARIO.  Seale’s oversaturated dystopia in MAD MAX: FURY ROAD works like gangbusters but feels like a long shot.  Lubezki has won the last two years and with THE REVENANT is the frontrunner this year.  If the Academy balks at a three-peat for Lubezki I might suggest the contrarian pick of Ed Lachman for CAROL.  His work was the year’s strongest, telling his story through framing, texturing and lighting better than any of the other nominees.

Should Win:     Ed Lachman, CAROL
Will Win:          Emmanuel Lubezki, THE REVENANT

Best Film Editing

Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey, STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
Hank Corwin, THE BIG SHORT
Tom McArdle, SPOTLIGHT
Stephen Mirrione, THE REVENANT
Margaret Sixel, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

THE REVENANT felt like a slog, so Mirrione does not belong on this list.  Brandon and Markey did what needed to be done on STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, but it’s not really Oscar® caliber.  McArdle’s work on SPOTLIGHT is classic and subtle.  In any other year Corwin would deserve the prize for his clever cutting on THE BIG SHORT.  This year Sixel deserves every accolade she receives for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD, essentially a two hour chase that knows when to speed up and when to slow down.

Should and Will Win:   Margaret Sixel, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Best Costume Design

Jenny Beavan, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Paco Delgado, THE DANISH GIRL
Sandy Powell, CAROL
Sandy Powell, CINDERELLA
Jacqueline West, THE REVENANT

Under normal circumstances Delgado’s costumes for THE DANISH GIRL or Powell’s for CINDERELLA would be the most likely winner.  I’m guessing (hoping?) that they’ll split the vote and pave the way for Beavan’s post-apocalypse fashion in MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.

Should and Will Win:   Jenny Beavan, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Best Production Design

BRIDGE OF SPIES
THE DANISH GIRL
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD has the most comprehensive world building since THE LORD OF THE RINGS and should win easily.  Unless it doesn’t.

Should and Will Win:   MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Best Original Score

Carter Burwell, CAROL
Johann Johannsson, SICARIO
Ennio Morricone, THE HATEFUL EIGHT
Thomas Newman, BRIDGE OF SPIES
John Williams, STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Johannsson’s SICARIO score is the most anxiety inducing of the year – after Morricone’s THE HATEFUL EIGHT, that is.  Morricone has never won an Oscar®.  I think that’s going to change this year.

Should and Will Win:   Ennio Morricone, THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Best Original Song

“Earned It,” FIFTY SHADES OF GREY
“Manta Ray,” RACING EXTINCTION
“Simple Song #3,” YOUTH
“Til It Happens To You,” THE HUNTING GROUND
“Writing’s On The Wall,” SPECTRE

Conventional wisdom claims that Lady Gaga has been making enough public appearances lately to put “Til It Happens To You” on top.  Me?  I don’t know.  And I don’t care.  I’m also told that if any song has the potential to beat it out, that would be “Writing’s On The Wall” from SPECTRE, a movie I saw but couldn’t remember the song if you put a gun to my head.

Should Win:     Who cares?
Will Win:          “Til It Happens To You,” THE HUNTING GROUND

Best Sound Mixing

BRIDGE OF SPIES
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

If it were up to me I’d give this to MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.  But it isn’t, and the other likely winners are THE REVENANT and STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS.  If nominated, often the Best Picture winner matches the winner in this category, so I’ll go with THE REVENANT.  STAR WARS wouldn’t be a bad contrarian pick, however.

Should Win:     MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will Win:          THE REVENANT

Best Sound Editing

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
SICARIO
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Movies with a goodly amount of action tend to win in this category, so you’d think MAD MAX: FURY ROAD would be a lock.  I’m not so sure in this case.  The Academy may not want to over reward a movie that is not expected to win Best Picture.  So, as in Sound Mixing, I’m going to go with THE REVENANT.  And, once again, STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS would be a decent contrarian pick.

Should Win:     MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will Win:          THE REVENANT

Best Visual Effects

EX MACHINA
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

These are all good choices.  And though MAD MAX: FURY ROAD did a more impressive job combining practical effects with CG, the Academy will want to give STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS an award because it made so much money and because STAR WARS.

Should Win:     MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will Win:          STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Best Makeup

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE 100-YEAR-OLD MAN WHO CLIMBED OUT THE WINDOW AND DISAPPEARED
THE REVENANT

The Makeup and Hairstylists Guild gave this award to MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.  I think the Academy will, too.

Should and Will Win:   MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Best Documentary Short Subject

BODY TEAM 12
CHAU, BEYOND THE LINES
CLAUDE LANZMANN: SPECTRES OF THE SHOAH
A GIRL IN THE RIVER: THE PRICE OF FORGIVENESS
LAST DAY OF FREEDOM

Sounds like a Holocaust-related picture, so I’m going with CLAUDE LANZMANN.

Will Win:          CLAUDE LANZMANN: SPECTRES OF THE SHOAH

Best Animated Short Subject

BEAR STORY
PROLOGUE
SANJAY’S SUPER TEAM
WE CAN’T LIVE WITHOUT COSMOS
WORLD OF TOMORROW

I’m guessing.

Will Win:          WE CAN’T LIVE WITHOUT COSMOS

Best Live Action Short Subject

AVE MARIA
DAY ONE
EVERYTHING WILL BE OKAY (ALLES WIRD GUT)
SHOK
STUTTERER

I’m guessing again.

Will Win:          EVERYTHING WILL BE OKAY (ALLES WIRD GUT)

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