It’s time once again to match wits with the Academy of
Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Below
are my predictions the 2015 Oscars® and my reasoning for the predictions. However, for your ballot it’s always best to
go with your own best instincts. Heaven
knows, I probably think more than the average voter when it comes to making my
choices. And there you have it.
Best
Picture:
THE BIG
SHORT
BRIDGE
OF SPIES
BROOKLYN
MAD MAX:
FURY ROAD
THE
MARTIAN
THE
REVENANT
ROOM
SPOTLIGHT
If you
use other awards as a guide, this year’s Best Picture appears to be a 3-way
race. THE BIG SHORT won the Producers
Guild Award, SPOTLIGHT won the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award (the SAG
equivalent of Best Picture), and THE REVENANT won the BAFTA (the British
Oscar®) and the Golden Globe for drama.
(Yes, THE MARTIAN won the Golden Globe for comedy. But it’s not a comedy, and that was a
consolation prize.) BROOKLYN and ROOM,
both worthy nominees, are too small to win.
BRIDGE OF SPIES, a smart, sober drama, got the nod over other equally
good films like CAROL and CREED because Steven Spielberg.
MAD MAX:
FURY ROAD would be my choice for Best Picture.
It’s an adrenaline rush of pure cinema that works as an action movie and
an allegory while playfully tweaking our archetypical gender expectations. It’s gloriously gonzo, and it’s George
Miller’s best film. And it will not
win. Sigh.
Of the
remaining films that are in serious contention, SPOTLIGHT -- a tense,
economical drama about the Catholic Church scandal of the early 2000s -- would
be my next choice. This is the kind of
topical tale Hollywood once did better than anyone. However, it will likely split its votes with
THE BIG SHORT – a funny, furious recounting of the financial crisis of 2008 –
which would be my next favorite of the contenders. And that leaves THE REVENANT, a beautifully
shot two-and-a-half hour UFC grudge match with fur trappers and muskets. Watching Leonardo DiCaprio grunt and crawl
his way to Oscar® glory (his grizzled character’s sole motivation from where I
sat) seems to be sufficient reason for voters to hand Alejandro G. Iñarritu his
second Best Picture award in as many years.
However, if you’re looking for a sensible contrarian pick, you could do
worse than THE BIG SHORT.
Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will Win: THE REVENANT
Overlooked: CAROL
CREED
Best
Director:
Lenny
Abrahamson, ROOM
Alejandro
G. Iñarritu, THE REVENANT
Tom
McCarthy, SPOTLIGHT
Adam
McKay, THE BIG SHORT
George
Miller, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will
voters award Iñarritu his second Best Director in a row? The DGA did.
But then again the DGA nominated Tom Hooper for the garbage fire LES
MISÉRABLES a couple years back, so their taste can be reasonably called into
question. Personally I would have
preferred a Todd Haynes nomination for CAROL and give Iñarritu a rest, but no
one listens to me. This year there’s a
chance (perhaps worth taking for the Oscar® pool contrarian) that the Academy
will balk at giving so much love to Iñarritu in so short a time span. Abrahamson snuck in (deservedly so) under the
wire and is the longest shot. McKay has
the advantage of his film being topical and the disadvantage of his film being
(essentially) a comedy. That leaves
McCarthy for SPOTLIGHT and Miller for MAD MAX as contrarian picks. Of the two I’d give the edge to Miller. He’s in his 70s, made a physically and
logistically difficult movie, and is unlikely to be nominated again. The safe money would be on Iñarritu and THE
REVENANT, but I’m feeling contrarian.
Should and
Will Win: George Miller, MAD MAX: FURY
ROAD
Overlooked: Todd
Haynes, CAROL
Best
Actress:
Cate
Blanchett, CAROL
Brie
Larson, ROOM
Jennifer
Lawrence, JOY
Charlotte
Rampling, 45 YEARS
Saoirse
Ronan, BROOKLYN
Based
solely on the three nominated performances I saw, Best Actress is one of the
strongest categories this year. Since
her nominated performance in ATONEMENT Ronin has proven to be one of the finest
actresses of her generation, but her performance in BROOKLYN may be too subtle
for a win. Lawrence and Blanchett have
each won recently. JOY received mixed
reviews and CAROL proved elusive to Academy voters, so neither actress is
likely to repeat. Larson has been on a
streak, with her performance in ROOM winning the Golden Globe for Actress in a
drama and the SAG Award. Her performance
is devastating, and I see no reason for her streak to end. Despite her storied career, Rampling has
never been nominated until now. There’s
a remote chance voters will give her the win for 45 YEARS as a lifetime achievement,
but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Should and
Will Win: Brie Larson, ROOM
Overlooked: Charlize
Theron, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Best
Actor:
Bryan
Cranston, TRUMBO
Matt
Damon, THE MARTIAN
Leonardo
DiCaprio, THE REVENANT
Michael
Fassbender, STEVE JOBS
Eddie Redmayne,
THE DANISH GIRL
On the
flip side of Best Actress, the Best Actor category feels lightweight. So much so that with barely any effort I
could name Tom Hanks in BRIDGE OF SPIES and Michael B. Jordan in CREED as
performances more worthy than some. Cranston’s
TRUMBO is a very good performance in a mediocre movie. Damon goes through his paces in THE MARTIAN
but doesn’t connect emotionally until the final rescue attempt. Last year’s Best Actor winner Redmayne is too
mannered in THE DANISH GIRL for my taste (and I’m happy to blame the director
Tom Hooper here). Fassbender’s STEVE
JOBS is the only performance that comes close to matching the material, but he
will not win. That honor belongs to
DiCaprio in THE REVENANT. Although his
character is the film’s least interesting, voters seem more impressed with the
actor’s hard work and less so with the performance’s artistic merit. A modest proposal: Institute a Tom Cruise Hardest Working Actor of
the Year Award, so an Oscar® can be about the end result and not the process.
Should
Win: Michael Fassbender, STEVE JOBS
Will
Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, THE
REVENANT
Overlooked: Tom Hanks, BRIDGE OF SPIES
Michael
B. Jordan, CREED
Best
Supporting Actress:
Jennifer
Jason Leigh, THE HATEFUL EIGHT
Rooney
Mara, CAROL
Rachel McAdams,
SPOTLIGHT
Alicia
Vikander, THE DANISH GIRL
Kate
Winslet, STEVE JOBS
The
actresses in the Supporting category are uniformly excellent. It’s a shame that only three are genuinely
supporting. Tessa Thompson in CREED and
Julie Walters in BROOKLYN would have been more appropriate choices, just to
name two. Leigh’s fearless performance in
THE HATEFUL EIGHT is truly hateful (as it should be), and its unpleasantness
may turn many voters off. Oscar® darling
Winslet won the Golden Globe for STEVE JOBS but is unlikely to win here. McAdams has the best shot of the legitimately
supporting actresses, but SPOTLIGHT is such a strong ensemble that it may be
hard for voters to single out any one actor.
Mara is the co-lead in CAROL and should have been nominated alongside
Blanchett, whom she matches beat for beat.
All things being equal (though they are not) hers is my favorite
performance in this category. However,
another wrongly categorized performance is more likely to win. Vikander is certainly the leading actress in
THE DANISH GIRL and carries much of the movie.
For this reason, and because she was marvelous (in a supporting role) in
EX MACHINA, voters will recognize her exceptional year here.
Should Win: Rooney Mara, CAROL
Will
Win: Alicia Vikander, THE DANISH
GIRL
Overlooked: Tessa Thompson, CREED
Alicia
Vikander, EX MACHINA
Julie Walters, BROOKLYN
Best
Supporting Actor:
Christian
Bale, THE BIG SHORT
Tom
Hardy, THE REVENANT
Mark
Ruffalo, SPOTLIGHT
Mark
Ryland, BRIDGE OF SPIES
Sylvester
Stallone, CREED
There is
also an abundance of riches in the Supporting Actor category (and here at least
each nominee is genuinely supporting).
So much so that I would be remiss if I didn’t bemoan the absence of
Steve Carell in THE BIG SHORT, Benicio Del Toro in SICARIO, and Idris Elba in
BEASTS OF NO NATION from the nominee list.
Bale’s quirky turn in THE BIG SHORT will likely be lost in the film’s strong
ensemble. Likewise Ruffalo in SPOTLIGHT
(unless voters feel they slighted him in FOXCATCHER some years back). Hardy’s performance in THE REVENANT is the
film’s most interesting but will be unfairly overshadowed by DiCaprio. My favorite is the subtle, sympathetic work
of Ryland in BRIDGE OF SPIES. He will
lose to Stallone, however, for Sly’s sly, understated return as Rocky Balboa in
CREED.
Should
Win: Mark Rylance, BRIDGE OF SPIES
Will
Win: Sylvester Stallone, CREED
Overlooked: Steve Carell, THE BIG SHORT
Benicio Del Toro,
SICARIO
Idris Elba, BEASTS OF NO
NATION
Best
Adapted Screenplay:
Emma
Donoghue, ROOM
Drew
Goddard, THE MARTIAN
Nick
Hornby, BROOKLYN
Phyllis
Nagy, CAROL
Charles
Randolph and Adam McKay, THE BIG SHORT
Of the
five nominees only Goddard’s THE MARTIAN seems a weak choice (not a bad choice,
just weak). How often can a problem be
solved by science within a couple of screen minutes of said problem’s arrival? Too often for my taste. A better choice would have been Ryan Coogler
& Aaron Covington’s CREED, a terrific reboot of the ROCKY franchise that
stands fine on its own. Donoghue’s
harrowing and exhilarating adaptation of her novel ROOM may be too upsetting to
win. Hornby’s graceful BROOKLYN and
Nagy’s quietly revolutionary CAROL are likely too subtle and may split each
other’s vote. The WGA just gave Randolph
and McKay the award for THE BIG SHORT, and I couldn’t agree more. Turning Michael Lewis’ book of the 2008
financial crisis (filled with esoteric financial terminology and transactions)
into an entertaining and infuriating film is a minor miracle.
Should and
Will Win: Charles Randolph and Adam
McKay, THE BIG SHORT
Overlooked: Ryan
Coogler & Aaron Covington, CREED
Best
Original Screenplay:
Matt
Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, BRIDGE OF SPIES
Alex
Garland, EX MACHINA
Jonathan
Herman and Andrea Berloff, STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON
Meg
LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, INSIDE OUT
Josh
Singer & Tom McCarthy, SPOTLIGHT
The
biggest surprise in this exceptional crop of scripts was Herman and Berloff’s
STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON, an energetic and vital biopic about the iconic rappers
of N.W.A. which puts their music in a context that allows understanding and
engenders respect. Charman and the Coen
brother’s BRIDGE OF SPIES is less surprising, but a solid and noble effort nonetheless. In EX MACHINA Garland updates the mad
scientist’s monster for the cyber era and creates the most cerebral of horror
movies. With the help of Pixar magicians,
LeFauve & Cooley and Docter hit another animated home run with this wistful
tale about a young girl’s coming to terms with sadness. Yet my favorite of the bunch is Singer &
McCarthy’s singular SPOTLIGHT, the economical and gripping story of the Boston
Globe reporters who in 2002 uncovered widespread corruption at the Catholic
Church. The WGA honored it, and I’m
confident the Academy will, too.
Should and
Will Win: Josh Singer & Tom
McCarthy, SPOTLIGHT
Best
Animated Film
ANOMALISA
BOY
AND THE WORLD
INSIDE
OUT
SHAUN
THE SHEEP MOVIE
WHEN
MARNIE WAS THERE
I
only saw two of the nominated animated films this year and am frankly surprised
the charming and faithful THE PEANUTS MOVIE didn’t make the cut. Of those I did see Charlie Kaufman’s
ANOMALISA, a brilliant but depressing tale of alienation, is far too much of a
downer to win. On the other hand INSIDE
OUT, despite being tinged with melancholy, makes for a near perfect blend of kid
friendly fun and grown up whimsy. I
would be very surprised if it didn’t take home the statue.
Should
and Will Win: INSIDE OUT
Overlooked: THE
PEANUTS MOVIE
Best
Foreign Language Film
EMBRACE
OF THE SERPENT (Columbia)
MUSTANG
(France)
SON
OF SAUL (Hungary)
THEEB
(Jordan)
A
WAR (Denmark)
I
didn’t see any of the nominees this year, so I’m going with conventional wisdom
and pick the Holocaust drama SON OF SAUL.
I understand a good upset pick could be MUSTANG.
Will
Win: SON OF SAUL (Hungary)
Best
Documentary Feature
AMY
CARTEL
LAND
THE
LOOK OF SILENCE
WHAT
HAPPENED, MISS SIMONE?
WINTER
ON FIRE: UKRAINE’S FIGHT FOR FREEDOM
I
only saw two of the nominees. Joshua Oppenheimer’s
bracing companion piece to THE ACT OF KILLING follows the brother of a victims of
the mid-1960s Indonesian massacres as he confronts perpetrators (some still in
political power) and their families. THE LOOK OF SILENCE is
one of the best films of the year.
However, the likely winner will be Asif Kapadia’s AMY, a loosely
structured look at the tragedy of singer Amy Winehouse.
Should
Win: THE LOOK OF SILENCE
Will
Win: AMY
Best
Cinematography
Roger
Deakins, SICARIO
Edward
Lachman, CAROL
Emmanuel
Lubezki, THE REVENANT
Robert
Richardson, THE HATEFUL EIGHT
John
Seale, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
A
year in which Robert Richardson is my least favorite option is a strong year
indeed. Deakins is long overdue but an
unlikely winner for SICARIO. Seale’s
oversaturated dystopia in MAD MAX: FURY ROAD works like gangbusters but feels
like a long shot. Lubezki has won the
last two years and with THE REVENANT is the frontrunner this year. If the Academy balks at a three-peat for
Lubezki I might suggest the contrarian pick of Ed Lachman for CAROL. His work was the year’s strongest, telling
his story through framing, texturing and lighting better than any of the other
nominees.
Should
Win: Ed Lachman, CAROL
Will
Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, THE
REVENANT
Best
Film Editing
Maryann
Brandon, Mary Jo Markey, STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
Hank
Corwin, THE BIG SHORT
Tom
McArdle, SPOTLIGHT
Stephen
Mirrione, THE REVENANT
Margaret
Sixel, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE
REVENANT felt like a slog, so Mirrione does not belong on this list. Brandon and Markey did what needed to be done
on STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, but it’s not really Oscar® caliber. McArdle’s work on SPOTLIGHT is classic and
subtle. In any other year Corwin would
deserve the prize for his clever cutting on THE BIG SHORT. This year Sixel deserves every accolade she
receives for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD, essentially a two hour chase that knows when
to speed up and when to slow down.
Should
and Will Win: Margaret Sixel, MAD MAX:
FURY ROAD
Best
Costume Design
Jenny
Beavan, MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Paco
Delgado, THE DANISH GIRL
Sandy
Powell, CAROL
Sandy
Powell, CINDERELLA
Jacqueline
West, THE REVENANT
Under
normal circumstances Delgado’s costumes for THE DANISH GIRL or Powell’s for
CINDERELLA would be the most likely winner.
I’m guessing (hoping?) that they’ll split the vote and pave the way for
Beavan’s post-apocalypse fashion in MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.
Should
and Will Win: Jenny Beavan, MAD MAX:
FURY ROAD
Best
Production Design
BRIDGE
OF SPIES
THE
DANISH GIRL
MAD
MAX: FURY ROAD
THE
MARTIAN
THE
REVENANT
MAD
MAX: FURY ROAD has the most comprehensive world building since THE LORD OF THE
RINGS and should win easily. Unless it
doesn’t.
Should
and Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Best
Original Score
Carter
Burwell, CAROL
Johann
Johannsson, SICARIO
Ennio
Morricone, THE HATEFUL EIGHT
Thomas
Newman, BRIDGE OF SPIES
John
Williams, STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
Johannsson’s
SICARIO score is the most anxiety inducing of the year – after Morricone’s THE
HATEFUL EIGHT, that is. Morricone has
never won an Oscar®. I think that’s
going to change this year.
Should
and Will Win: Ennio Morricone, THE
HATEFUL EIGHT
Best
Original Song
“Earned
It,” FIFTY SHADES OF GREY
“Manta
Ray,” RACING EXTINCTION
“Simple
Song #3,” YOUTH
“Til
It Happens To You,” THE HUNTING GROUND
“Writing’s
On The Wall,” SPECTRE
Conventional
wisdom claims that Lady Gaga has been making enough public appearances lately to
put “Til It Happens To You” on top.
Me? I don’t know. And I don’t care. I’m also told that if any song has the
potential to beat it out, that would be “Writing’s On The Wall” from SPECTRE, a
movie I saw but couldn’t remember the song if you put a gun to my head.
Should
Win: Who cares?
Will
Win: “Til It Happens To You,” THE
HUNTING GROUND
Best
Sound Mixing
BRIDGE OF SPIES
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
THE MARTIAN
THE REVENANT
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
If it were up to me I’d give this to MAD MAX: FURY ROAD. But it isn’t, and the other likely winners
are THE REVENANT and STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS. If nominated, often the Best Picture winner
matches the winner in this category, so I’ll go with THE REVENANT. STAR WARS wouldn’t be a bad contrarian pick,
however.
Should
Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will
Win: THE REVENANT
Best
Sound Editing
MAD
MAX: FURY ROAD
THE
MARTIAN
THE
REVENANT
SICARIO
STAR
WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
Movies
with a goodly amount of action tend to win in this category, so you’d think MAD
MAX: FURY ROAD would be a lock. I’m not
so sure in this case. The Academy may
not want to over reward a movie that is not expected to win Best Picture. So, as in Sound Mixing, I’m going to go with
THE REVENANT. And, once again, STAR
WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS would be a decent contrarian pick.
Should
Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will
Win: THE REVENANT
Best
Visual Effects
EX
MACHINA
MAD
MAX: FURY ROAD
THE
MARTIAN
THE
REVENANT
STAR
WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
These
are all good choices. And though MAD
MAX: FURY ROAD did a more impressive job combining practical effects with CG,
the Academy will want to give STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS an award because it
made so much money and because STAR WARS.
Should
Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Will
Win: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
Best
Makeup
MAD
MAX: FURY ROAD
THE
100-YEAR-OLD MAN WHO CLIMBED OUT THE WINDOW AND DISAPPEARED
THE
REVENANT
The
Makeup and Hairstylists Guild gave this award to MAD MAX: FURY ROAD. I think the Academy will, too.
Should
and Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Best
Documentary Short Subject
BODY
TEAM 12
CHAU,
BEYOND THE LINES
CLAUDE
LANZMANN: SPECTRES OF THE SHOAH
A
GIRL IN THE RIVER: THE PRICE OF FORGIVENESS
LAST
DAY OF FREEDOM
Sounds
like a Holocaust-related picture, so I’m going with CLAUDE LANZMANN.
Will
Win: CLAUDE LANZMANN: SPECTRES OF
THE SHOAH
Best
Animated Short Subject
BEAR
STORY
PROLOGUE
SANJAY’S
SUPER TEAM
WE
CAN’T LIVE WITHOUT COSMOS
WORLD
OF TOMORROW
I’m
guessing.
Will
Win: WE CAN’T LIVE WITHOUT COSMOS
Best
Live Action Short Subject
AVE
MARIA
DAY
ONE
EVERYTHING
WILL BE OKAY (ALLES WIRD GUT)
SHOK
STUTTERER
I’m
guessing again.
