Friday, February 22, 2013

THE POPE’S 2012 OSCAR® PREDICTIONS -- PART 1

Every year people around the world try to think like members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.  Why should I be different?  My predictions have been divided into two parts.  Part 1 includes the categories you probably don't care about (i.e., technical awards, documentaries, foreign film, etc.) unless you’re entered into an Oscar® pool.  Because of potential volatility in the major categories these choices could mean the difference between victory and defeat.  Here we go with Part 1 of my Wills and Shoulds for 2012:

Best Animated Film

BRAVE
FRANKENWEENIE
PARANORMAN
THE PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS
WRECK-IT RALPH

I’ve only seen two of the nominated films, FRANKENWEENIE and PARANORMAN (the latter just missed my blog review cut-off).  Both are horror movie homages.  The first succeeds as a love letter to Frankenstein; the latter stumbles awkwardly as a zombie movie pastiche.  Either way, the Annie Awards seem to indicate that this will be WRECK-IT RALPH’s year.  Who am I to argue?

Should Win:     FRANKENWEENIE
Will Win:          WRECK-IT RALPH

Best Foreign Language Film

AMOUR (Austria)
KON-TIKI (Norway)
NO (Chile)
A ROYAL AFFAIR (Denmark)
WAR WITCH (Canada)

AMOUR is a terrific film, and I haven’t seen any of the others.  But even if you’ve seen none, keep the following in mind.  If a Foreign Language Film nominee also gets a Best Picture nomination (which AMOUR did), you would be wise to pick that.

Should and Will Win:   AMOUR

Best Documentary Feature

5 BROKEN CAMERAS
THE GATEKEEPERS
HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE
THE INVISIBLE WAR
SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN

The only documentary I saw this year was WEST OF MEMPHIS, which wasn’t nominated.  I’ve heard good things about THE GATEKEEPERS, HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE and SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN, the latter of which won a DGA award, a PGA award, and a WGA award.  Absent any other information, let’s go with the latter.

Will Win:          SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins, SKYFALL
Janusz Kaminski, LINCOLN
Seamus McGarvey, ANNA KARENINA
Claudio Miranda, LIFE OF PI
Robert Richardson, DJANGO UNCHAINED

All the nominees this year are exceptional.  However, Deakins is so long overdue that I would love to see him win for his re-imagination of the James Bond look.  That said, in recent years each time a 3-D film was nominated for cinematography, it won.  So I’m going to choose Miranda.

Should Win:     Roger Deakins, SKYFALL
Will Win:          Claudio Miranda, LIFE OF PI
Overlooked:    Greig Fraser, ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Film Editing

Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
William Goldenberg, ARGO
William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Michael Kahn, LINCOLN
Tim Squyres, LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN and LIFE OF PI were a little long but gorgeously constructed, while SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK perfectly matched the tempo and tone of Russell’s filmmaking.  Goldenberg and Tichenor deserve the gold for ZERO DARK THIRTY, but Goldenberg will stand at the podium alone thanks to the ARGO Effect (which I shall define in a subsequent post, but you will soon get the drift).

Should Win:     William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Will Win:          William Goldenberg, ARGO

Best Costume Design

Colleen Atwood, SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN
Paco Delgado, LES MISÉRABLES
Jacqueline Durran, ANNA KARENINA
Eiko Ishioka, MIRROR MIRROR
Joanna Johnston, LINCOLN

I didn’t see SNOW WHITE or MIRROR MIRROR, and the costumes for LES MISÉRABLES just felt wrong to me.  (Crowe looked uncomfortable in everything he wore, but that may be due to his terrible singing.)  I think the choice comes down to Durran or Johnston.  If the Academy starts to feel bad for handing the night to ARGO (as I suspect it will), it may give this award to LINCOLN as a consolation prize.  However, they may also see LINCOLN's inevitable Best Actor Oscar® as recognition enough.  I tend to agree with the latter logic and therefore pick ANNA KARENINA.

Should and Will Win:   Jacqueline Durran, ANNA KARENINA

Best Production Design

ANNA KARENINA
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LES MISÉRABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN

ANNA KARENINA’s design is the most conceptually innovative of the bunch.  However, I think this will come down to LIFE OF PI or LINCOLN and how the Academy intends to space out awards.  I’m leaning toward LIFE OF PI.

Should Win:     ANNA KARENINA
Will Win:          LIFE OF PI

Best Original Score

Mychael Danna, LIFE OF PI
Alexandre Desplat, ARGO
Dario Marianelli, ANNA KARENINA
Thomas Newman, SKYFALL
John Williams, LINCOLN

Newman deserves the Oscar® for his refreshing incorporation of the iconic James Bond theme (not to mention a great score on top of that).  Danna won the Golden Globe and is the frontrunner, unless the ARGO Effect gives a surprise statue to Desplat, so I will go with him.

Should Win:     Thomas Newman, SKYFALL
Will Win:          Mychael Danna, LIFE OF PI

Best Original Song

“Before My Time”, CHASING ICE
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend”, TED
“Pi’s Lullaby”, LIFE OF PI
“Skyfall”, SKYFALL
“Suddenly”, LES MISÉRABLES

Can there be any doubt that Adele will win?

Should and Will Win:   “Skyfall”, SKYFALL

Best Sound Mixing

ARGO
LES MISÉRABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SKYFALL

As we get into the more esoteric categories, evaluation becomes more difficult and the choice more arbitrary.  In any other year SKYFALL would win or, if it were a better movie, LES MISÉRABLES, because it’s a musical.  In this instance, however, let’s count on the ARGO Effect.

Should Win:     SKYFALL
Will Win:          ARGO

Best Sound Editing

ARGO
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LIFE OF PI
SKYFALL
ZERO DARK THIRTY

If not for the torture “scandal” and the ARGO Effect, this would and should go to ZERO DARK THIRTY.

Should Win:     ZERO DARK THIRTY
Will Win:          ARGO

Best Visual Effects

THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LIFE OF PI
MARVEL’S THE AVENGERS
PROMETHEUS
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN

With the other movies, you feel like you’ve seen everything before.  You believe the tiger is real.

Should and Will Win:   LIFE OF PI

Best Makeup

HITCHCOCK
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LES MISÉRABLES

The makeup in THE HOBBIT was impressive (maybe the only thing).  And while there’s a chance the Academy will honor LES MISÉRABLES for its “realistic” look, I’m going with my gut.

Should and Will Win:   THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY

Best Documentary Short Subject

INOCENTE
KINGS POINT
MONDAYS AT RACINE
OPEN HEART
REDEMPTION

I read an article that thought INOCENTE would win.  It’s all I have.

Will Win:          INOCENTE

Best Animated Short Subject

ADAM AND DOG
FRESH GUACAMOLE
HEAD OVER HEELS
MAGGIE SIMPSON IN “THE LONGEST DAYCARE”
PAPERMAN

PAPERMAN is sweet little romantic movie and the likely winner.  However, HEAD OVER HEELS is touching and has a more seasoned sweetness and romance.  Though it’s unlikely to prevail, I’m going to pick it anyway.

Should and Will Win:   HEAD OVER HEELS

Best Live Action Short Subject

ASAD
BUZKASHI BOYS
CURFEW
DEATH OF A SHADOW (DOOD VAN EEN SCHADUW)
HENRY

Again, I read a few articles, and I’m taking a best guess.

Will Win:          ASAD

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